Will prices rise or fall?
Nothing beats predicting the future. If only we knew that banks would keel over. If only we knew the Greek predicament. If only we knew about global warming. just a few of predictions which might have made life more pleasing if we had known them on forehand.
Now at the end of Southeast Asia's rice growing season we want to know whether to buy now, sell later or to hedge future sales at lower prices.
Flooding has compounded production: Hun Sen has stated publicly (in the Phnom Penh Post, 10 November 2011), that 10% of Cambodia's wet season rice crop was destroyed. Now to see if the remainder can make up for the shortfall.
Continuing floods in Thailand will in the short term harm production and thus exports, but has the mortgage scheme already sucked in neighbours rice? Or encouraged higher outputs?
Meanwhile, Vietnam News Agency (October 29) reports Mekong rice productivity up by nearly 10%, which will put rice the nation's output up by nearly 5%.
Less rice / more rice? The FAO are awakening on the prediction. According to a report in the Nation (12 November), international prices for rice will drop slightly next year because of weakening demand and less export by Thailand.
Don't quite understand. Demand will remain at worst constant and with an immediate shortfall due to floods, it looks like prices may well increase until the latter part of next year, at least that's what I would expect.
If the prices do go down, the Thai government will be in trouble ...
Nothing beats predicting the future. If only we knew that banks would keel over. If only we knew the Greek predicament. If only we knew about global warming. just a few of predictions which might have made life more pleasing if we had known them on forehand.
Now at the end of Southeast Asia's rice growing season we want to know whether to buy now, sell later or to hedge future sales at lower prices.
Flooding has compounded production: Hun Sen has stated publicly (in the Phnom Penh Post, 10 November 2011), that 10% of Cambodia's wet season rice crop was destroyed. Now to see if the remainder can make up for the shortfall.
Continuing floods in Thailand will in the short term harm production and thus exports, but has the mortgage scheme already sucked in neighbours rice? Or encouraged higher outputs?
Meanwhile, Vietnam News Agency (October 29) reports Mekong rice productivity up by nearly 10%, which will put rice the nation's output up by nearly 5%.
Less rice / more rice? The FAO are awakening on the prediction. According to a report in the Nation (12 November), international prices for rice will drop slightly next year because of weakening demand and less export by Thailand.
Don't quite understand. Demand will remain at worst constant and with an immediate shortfall due to floods, it looks like prices may well increase until the latter part of next year, at least that's what I would expect.
If the prices do go down, the Thai government will be in trouble ...
Leakage
Will Cambodia become an alternative for rice exports. the government thinks so and is very vexed by a report from the World Bank which has it's doubts about the attainability of Cambodia's 2015 goal:
'The report – dated July 12 but leaked [was it a secret?] last week – said uncompetitive prices and logistics bottlenecks would make even 500,000 tonnes of milled-rice exports virtually unattainable within the intended deadline'.
The Cambodia government thinks the report is bogus and the World Bank is being anti-development. All based on an article by the Phnom Penh Post (24 October). Blame the messenger?
Possibly to step up it's efforts the government has decided to forgo on a 1% tax. Nobody according to Phnom Penh Post (24 October) really knows the significance nor the implications of the tax break.
Then the private sector and their on-goings. The Phnom Penh Post (15 November) reports on the problems with rice trade deals. Mostly the deals call for high quality processed rice while Cambodia can only deliver low quality unprocessed. Dilemma.
Possibly to step up it's efforts the government has decided to forgo on a 1% tax. Nobody according to Phnom Penh Post (24 October) really knows the significance nor the implications of the tax break.
Then the private sector and their on-goings. The Phnom Penh Post (15 November) reports on the problems with rice trade deals. Mostly the deals call for high quality processed rice while Cambodia can only deliver low quality unprocessed. Dilemma.
The wider picture
The Philippines are breeding for more 'tougher' rice. The problem to solve?
'Despite the good harvest attained in said provinces, adaptability trials in some areas revealed that inbred varieties could perform equally or better than the hybrid rice'.If only the farmers had known before they bought the seeds.
An odd movement in Nepal where an anti movement seems to be upset by Us donor funds being used to promote private corn hybrids. The Nepali Times (4 November) has an in-depth article:
'In a USAID press release last month announcing a partnership between the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and Monsanto on a pilot maize production project in Nepal, we heard the same tired arguments of more nutritious food, increased yields and food security, and the requirement of less chemicals'.It concludes:
'The majority of the people of Nepal will not be better off, in fact, their lives and livelihoods will be made more difficult'.Having worked in Nepal before, local breeding of corn was pathetic and supplies of good seed were non-existent. Already back then (mid nineties) local farmers were using corn hybrids, which despite their lack of adaptability and high price were often better producing than the local open-pollinated varieties on farmers fields. Seed production of corn on a world scale is nearly exclusively hybrid so it seems logical that any development company would do the same. But why of all companies Monsanto? If puzzled, you can sign a petition.
