With flood levels rising, it appears that expectations concerning Southeast Asia's harvests are dampening, probably resulting in a short term increase in prices.
On top of that comes the possibly ill-conceived Thai rice mortgage plan which hopes to increase international prices while safeguarding local prices and enriching farmers in the meantime.
The plan is the hottest issue concerning rice at this moment.
Phnom Penh Post chips in (on 29-09-2011) with an interview with CEDAC's president Yang Saing Koma. Unfortunately he does not give much regard to the Thai plan which I would believe will raise domestic prices for Cambodian rice and could well impede Cambodia's own plans to increase exports independent of Thai trade.
Among the many problems are those involved with increased corruption. Just today the Bangkok Post reported on a poll among economists:
The Nation on September 5 2011 heads a warning by Thai Development Research Institute (TDRI):
That said, the Asia Sentinel (23 September 2011) posts huge questions concerning China's potential to drastically improve productivity as prominently featured in Chinese press (see for example China Daily 19 September 2011: 'China sets new world record with hybrid rice yield'; as high as 14.5 ton/ha) . It's a very interesting article. It focuses on levels of nitrogen required which would need to rise to 250 kg/ha, which in turn could lead to increased soil acidity and depletion threatening China's own ability to produce.
Smaller issues:
On top of that comes the possibly ill-conceived Thai rice mortgage plan which hopes to increase international prices while safeguarding local prices and enriching farmers in the meantime.
The plan is the hottest issue concerning rice at this moment.
Phnom Penh Post chips in (on 29-09-2011) with an interview with CEDAC's president Yang Saing Koma. Unfortunately he does not give much regard to the Thai plan which I would believe will raise domestic prices for Cambodian rice and could well impede Cambodia's own plans to increase exports independent of Thai trade.
Among the many problems are those involved with increased corruption. Just today the Bangkok Post reported on a poll among economists:
'... that most economists polled recently believed there would definitely be corruption in the government's rice mortgage scheme.Other skeptics include the Thai Farmers Association again reported in the Bangkok Post (30-09-2011):
...
The pollsters reported that 82 per cent of the respondents believed corruption would definitely taint the scheme, and 86 per cent felt that rice millers and silos would gain the most benefit, not farmers.
A total of 74 per cent of the economists thought that consumers would be the biggest losers, and 60 per cent said the farm income guarantee programme of the Democrats was better, according to the pollsters'.
'Wichean Puanglamchiak, vice-president of Thai Farmers Association, said the government's idea to mortgage all paddy sounds good on the surface. But it will backfire in a matter of months. "Most farmers do not have any farmland of their own and rent land for farming. "And chances are that when the next season comes, land owners will take their land back and hire farmers to work on their farms," he said'.The Nation (22-09-2011) gives air for Narongchai Akrasanee, former minister and economist:
'... we are worried about the rice-pledging scheme, as we don't know how much it will cost ...'.Others skeptics:
'its opponents, including former deputy prime minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula and renowned economist Ammar Siamwalla from the Thailand Development Research Institute.Again printed by Bangkok Post (27-09-2011).
...
MR Pridiyathorn said taxpayers could be hit with a 250-billion-baht bill under the government's return to what he called a "loophole-ridden" rice mortgage subsidy programme. The programme could also result in Thailand losing its status as the world's top rice-exporting nation, he said'.
The Nation on September 5 2011 heads a warning by Thai Development Research Institute (TDRI):
'While consumers and taxpayers will suffer from the government's controversial rice policy, Vietnam will substantially gain, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) has warned.One aspect of the plan is that it might well erode Thailand's pivotal position in the international rice trade. Previous years have seen others gain on Thailand. The Golbeandmail (26-09-2011) reports on India and Vietnam releasing larger amounts of stockpiles, while it reports that China is concerned even though it has higher than required stock piles. It also briefly states that China may well rely on science to provide the answer.
...
He [Ammar Siamwalla of TDRI] said farmers would ignore developing grain quality as the government had set up a high pledging price without regard to rice quality.The pledging project would draw a flood of rice from Cambodia and Burma. The market mechanism would be destroyed and only millers and a few exporters who joined the pledging scheme would survive, as the state would monopolise rice trading'.
That said, the Asia Sentinel (23 September 2011) posts huge questions concerning China's potential to drastically improve productivity as prominently featured in Chinese press (see for example China Daily 19 September 2011: 'China sets new world record with hybrid rice yield'; as high as 14.5 ton/ha) . It's a very interesting article. It focuses on levels of nitrogen required which would need to rise to 250 kg/ha, which in turn could lead to increased soil acidity and depletion threatening China's own ability to produce.
Smaller issues:
- Further afield, despite previous reported problems with their American operations, Bayer CropScience continues on with their objective of market domination by getting an exclusive deal in Brazil.
- Interestingly, the ACIAR has calculated what financial returns were due to breeding efforts. Despite all the hoopla there's little to suggest that actually the increased financial rewards were due to higher current prices vs past prices, which in part is being blamed on the lack of breeding! It also stresses that the increased returns were earned by farmers, which is highly doubtful. Quick review of the study takes into account that the stated averages are higher than those observed in reality.
- In a what could be possibly a related hybrid rice issue, China has announced that they will not continue with the Confucius Peace Prize; China's most famous hybrid rice scientist
