Found lacking

Ups/downs

What's hot news, what's not? 

Arguably in the hybrid rice world there's nothing bigger than this momentarily.
Researchers on hybrid rice in China claim to have a hybrid rice which breaches productivity of 15 ton/ha (Oryzae.com, Oct. 6). Whether it's tasty or not remains unclear ...

But in the rice export headlines it's this: India is expected to be no. 1 rice exporter  for 2015, so reports Oryzae.com (Oct. 8). Mostly due to increased production and higher demand. That spells prices going down ....

But neither have major implications. Productivity with hybrids is still not changing the perspective, while prices going down is just too good a news item that we're not interested in at all!

Slight

Meanwhile in Cambodia ...

The first 9 months have passed. And exports are up ..., but only just. Phnom Penh Post (Oct. 6): 

'A report from the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture published Saturday shows that from January to September, the Kingdom exported about 270,000 tonnes of rice, up 1.2 per cent from the same nine-month period last year.

Sok Puthyvuth, president of the Cambodian Rice Federation, said the figure represents only a slight improvement on last year but that Thailand’s stockpile selloff in late 2013 had impacted the market'.

Adding to this. AMRU Rice hopes to be in the position to export 2,500 tonnes of organic rice from the province of Preah Vihear later this year. Destination Europe. Small write up by Phnom Penh Post (Sept. 9).

As expected Cambodia lost the bid to deliver rice to the Philippines (Phnom Penh Post, Sept. 19).

The Cambodia Daily (Sept. 12) is putting it's money on China as a potential super importer of rice from Cambodia: 

'China’s contaminated agriculture sector and robust demand for rice has created a potentially lucrative opportunity for Cambodian ex­porters if they can better promote their produce to compete with re­gional rivals, experts said at a workshop on rice markets in Phnom Penh on Thursday.

...

But in order to obtain a greater share of the Chinese market, speak­ers said, Cambodia must work to dispel the country’s notion that Cambodia’s rice is overpriced and of low quality.

....

Hun Lak, vice president of the Cambodian Rice Federation, said China has given Cambodia the “green light” following an agreement last month between China’s state-owned China National Ce­re­als, Oils and Foodstuffs Corp., or Cof­co, and Cambodia to import 100,000 tons within a year.

“The 100,000 ton quota is a trial. They’ve given us the green light to see if we can commit,” he said'.

Ground breaking research by the Asian Development Bank. The Cambodia Daily (Oct. 3): 

'A lack of skills and knowledge among farmers is to blame for the underdevelopment of Cambodia’s rice sector, as growers are unfamiliar with commercial farming methods that produce higher yields, according to a study released by the Asian Development Bank on Thursday'. 

The study finds that dry season rice growing is more productive (but not necessarily economically attractive ...?), so the conclusion is that more farmers should grow dry season rice. Even though it might not be finacially beneficial? But why aren't farmers producing in the dry season? Lack of water? The brief summary also has this: 

'Since increased farm size is one of the most important factors for raising the levels of farm production and commercialization, investment climate factors that induce reallocation of land may potentially have greater value over the long term than those that only affect short-term production'. 

This seems at odds with the reality where smaller farms produce more efficient, both in terms of productivity and financial returns. Begs the question, why bother reading this report ....?

Milking

Across the border Thailand´s rice merry go round is continuing unabated.

With the Thai junta's honeymoon now passed they seem to be losing favour, as could be expected. Graft continues, but apparent incompetency by rulers is gaining popularity, no surprises there. So what to do? Curry favour!

The Bangkok Post (Sep 19) note 

'A government panel agreed Friday to expedite subsidy payments to rubber farmers in exchange for them dropping planned street protests while policymakers work to reform the industry'. 

It's been well-noted that the government has been pursuing better policies for rubber farmers in the south who would be more inclined to support the current government and the anti-Taksin stance. 

However not all is hunky dory: 

'The country, meanwhile, laid plans to unload all the rubber it holds in state stockpiles, starting with 100,000 tonnes which it already agreed to sell. However, the head of Thailand's rubber industry group complained to Bloomberg that the published terms of the sale were unclear. The government did not name the buyer and gave a sales price above the spot market.

"We are afraid that the deal could be just a political ploy to tell the market that the stocks have been slashed," Perk Lertwangpong, head of the

Rubber Growers Cooperative Federation of Thailand, told Bloomberg Tuesday. "But the rubber may not have gone anywhere and could still

keep pressuring prices, with the government still paying burdensome storage costs." After Friday's meeting, Gen Prayut acknowledged that the committee has not yet reached a decision

whether to sell the stockpile, which was built up under the previous government's rubber-support scheme'. 

On this news prices of rubber dropped to a 5-year low ... A day later the Nation reports likewise, all rubber farmers are sorted out. They hope.

Success in protesting nurtures more. The Bangkok Post (Sept. 29): 

'Rice farmers recently asked for help from the government after a similar call from rubber growers in 16 southern provinces demanding intervention to arrest the seemingly unstoppable fall in rubber prices.

...

Rice farmers [] have demanded the government guarantees 10,000 baht per tonne of paddy against market price of 8,000-9,000 baht. The government, however, does not want to repeat the previous governments' populist policies by guaranteeing a rice price or through a pledging scheme, but prefers to help the farmers reduce their production costs by about 500 baht per rai.

Fertiliser and pesticide traders' associations have been asked by the NCPO to provide more discounts to farmers, and landlords have been told to cut rental fees for farmland. The price of rice seeds for cultivation too will be lowered. Also, cheap loans will be made available to farmers by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives'. 

Well fancy that: you can tell landlords to lower their rent. Doubt it! Anyway the article then goes on to champion organic rice growers who won't gain anything from the above measures to lower inputs. It also stresses the low productivity in Thailand and the low net income Thai farmers gleam from their toils ...

Apparently a better plan is in the making. It would mean that rice farmers would be persuaded to give up their crops in return for planting the rice fields with other crops. The junta would thus thrust money at rice farmers and wean their political support from Thaksin and hope that farmers would not complain about drought conditions. The Nation (Oct. 2):

'Northeastern Rice Farmers Association president Panupong Pattarakhon-ngam yesterday said he was aware of the drought threat, but he could not agree with the government plan.

...

Panupong described such a plan as a populist scheme that would hurt rice farmers in the long run.

"We grow rice not just for sale. We grow it for our family's consumption too," he said.

He said the size of paddy fields in Thailand had already been shrinking naturally in response to demand-and-supply mechanisms.

On the rice price, Panupong said the problem was now serious because the government was still trying to release a vast amount of rice from its stockpiles'.

Rice farmers might want to stage a protest ...

Having thus tested the waters, the Thai government has now decided against dissuading rice growing. Of course they were never in favour of this, it was all scaremongering, etc. Well so is one to believe (The Nation, Oct. 7). But:

'The junta chief said the focus would be on utilising less farmland and water while at the same time increasing productivity.

...

Prayut [PM slash junta chief] said farmers would be classified into four groups - very poor or landless, those owning more than 40 rai of farmland, those with more wealth or those who use tractors or other machinery, and those operating farms and also leasing other farmland.

All groups would be eligible for different kinds of government assistance or subsidies'.

So now suddenly the previous rice pledging scheme does not look too bad ..., certainly in the way it was executed and the possibilities of graft. Another whopper season ahead for cashing in on the hapless farmers of Thailand! (And the tax payers ...).

The PM responds and says that the free cash is not forever (Bangkok Post, Oct. 3). Apparently it is to help the farmers to "adjust" from the previous government's handout to some new handout.

The Bangkok Post (Oct. 5) adds: 

'This will cost you 40 billion baht. But while it's the most jaw-dropping, widespread and legal give-away in the country's history, it's actually just a tiny part of the stimulus package unveiled by MR Pridiyathorn and his boss. It amounts to more than a third of a trillion baht of spending in a tiny timeframe.

Critics called it a "freebie" and pinned on it the most ignominious label of the day: "Populist."

The Bangkok Post already sees 1 problem (Oct. 3) What about the 800,000 landless rice farmers? They get nada? Their landlord gets the dough? Or is this new idea just as brainless? Or heaven forbid worse ..

And in a reversal of fortunes, the above plans have caught other farmers out. Why are rice farmers been given cash handouts and not others? The Nation (Oct. 4) notes that rubber and corn growers are protesting. And so are the landless rice growers. Back to square one?

It comes as no surprise that many farmers have already hoped to get their share by registering. The Nation (Oct. 8): 

'THOUSANDS OF farmers have eagerly registered for the government's scheme to hand out a Bt1,000 subsidy for each rai of their paddy fields'.

New Mandala (Sept. 19) features on the rice / rubber support saga's. Are the powers trying to buy off allegiance? Are they indeed hoping to divide and rule?

Finally, some hyper news, Thai exports will hit 11 million tonnes, so reports Bangkok Post (Oct. 1). This would be Thailand's highest ever annual export figure. No mention is made of the cost to farmers and tax payers ...

Thai exports of rice up 60%, so reports the Nation (Oct. 3). That's what happens when a normal year follows a poor one ...