Headache

A reference to an article by The Guardian (Sep. 14) on the Monsanto - Bayer deal kicks off this posting. The relevance is Monsanto leading the GMO production and leading the debate on GMO's with a hawkish view:

'Werner Baumann, chief executive of Bayer, which is most famous for developing aspirin, said “the combination of our two great organizations [will] deliver substantial value to shareholders, our customers, employees and society at large”.

But farmers and environmentalists warned the deal could lead to a reduction in seed variety, an increase in genetically modified crops and higher seed costs and therefore crop and food prices.

The proposed takeover is likely to face intense regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe, particularly as it quickly follows two other mega-deals in the agriculture industry and would leave control of almost two-thirds of the world’s seeds and pesticides in the hands of three firms.

...

Hugh Grant, Monsanto’s Scottish chief executive, hit out at environmentalists saying their concern about GM crops “drives me a little bit nuts” and said they should be more worried about how to feed a fast-growing global population while using less water as global temperatures rise'.

Well, it seems that the formation of an agro-industrial behemoth seems to be of more importance to those taking a dim view of the merger. 
The companies involved would do better to address the legitimate fears, though with Monsanto, one of the globes most feared companies, it's quite unlikely to happen. 
And no doubt it's not the need to feed the world that lies at the heart of the merger, rather a complex financial deal ensuring shareholders and management an outrageous return.

Bloomberg (Sep. 19) takes a look at the logics of the merger and has difficulties at seeing the positives. 

'It appears that some of the opposition to the deal can be traced to a dislike of the companies involved, especially Monsanto'. 

The article notes that there's not much overlap between the companies, Bayer certainly is not involved in GMO, well far behind Monsanto. So the emerging company would have no monopoly power in GMO. 

It also concludes that it may well be management that stands to profit and also notes that the widespread dislike of Monsanto should not be the guiding principle into decisions concerning government regulation on mega deals. If the deal does fall through it would be Bayer shareholders who would end up the better.

Affirmation

With Cambodia cozying up to China, it's no surprise that China is sort of looking at acquiring Cambodian produce. Do note that even though there's substantial talk about a deal here and there, quite often they fail to fruit. After all the exported produce still needs to be sold to a consumer in China and they are increasingly becoming picky. 

So let's start with this from what Mekongoryza (Sep. 9) reports:

'Cambodia’s Prime Minister Samdech Akka Moha Sena Padei Techo Hun Sen held a short, but fruitful bilateral talk yesterday evening with his Chinese counterpart H.E. Li Keqiang, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summits and Related Summits in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

According to the National Television of Cambodia (TVK)’s report, the talk focused on rice trade and China’s development assistance to Cambodia, as well as scholarship programme for Cambodian students.

H.E. Li Keqiang affirmed to increase the purchase of Cambodian rice from 100,000 tons this year to 200,000 tons next year, ...'.

Even the Bangkok Post (Sep. 9)  notices that Cambodia's Foreign Affairs stance is paying off.

'The Chinese government will import 200,000 tonnes of rice annually from Cambodia from next year, double the current amount, ...'.

Oddly, Laos is moving the other way.  Laos cuts rice exports to China so headlines the Vientiane Times (Sep. 17). It seems to contradict all rice export logic:

'Laos is reducing the amount of rice it exports to China after failing to fulfil an order for 8 tonnes placed by the country this year.

Director General of the Trade and Product Promotion Department under the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Mr Somvang Ninthavong, told Vientiane Times on Friday that Laos had only been able to supply 2.5 tonnes of rice so far.

...

Mr Somvang said there was no policy to compete with China, Vietnam and Thailand in the rice market because Laos was a small producer. Instead, the department emphasises the high quality of the rice grown in Laos, focusing on this niche aspect rather than quantity.

...

The middlemen who buy rice in Champassak province would like farmers to grow a lot more rice that smells and tastes good, but farmers are unwilling to do so because the brokers aren't prepared to pay a higher price.

Farmers are growing plenty of rice but not the higher-grade varieties that middlemen want.

The kind of rice they seek yields about 2 or 2.5 tonnes per hectare and costs about 2,500 kip per kilogramme. But few farmers grow this kind o f rice because buyers won't pay a fair price'.

Market chills

Meanwhile it's domestic prices to the fore in Cambodia. Especially with the harvest near and the prices low, certainly lower than expected. But before we head there, let's look at this article in the New Mandala (Sep. 8):

'A four centuries long downward trend means grain prices aren’t set to soar any time soon, writes Jim Plamondon.
A decade ago, when grain prices spiked sharply upwards, many were convinced that rising grain prices were the ‘new normal.’
Influenced by new factors such as the economic emergence of China, global climate change, population growth, water shortages, and more, surely the price of grain (and especially rice) would continue to rise… right?
Wrong.
...
Clearly, the historical trend has been downward for more than 400 years. One might agree that this was true, and yet argue that “this time it’s different,” perhaps due to global climate change, population increases, changing dietary habits, the end of the Green Revolution’s productivity gains, water shortages, and the economic rise of rice-loving Asians, among many factors.
...
Their July 2016 publication, the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, states that grain prices are likely to fall, and includes Figure 5 below (for rice, see the right-most chart in Figure 5). Notice that the real (that is, inflation-adjusted) price of rice is expected to fall more steeply than the other grains'.

The article then concludes that it is probably much better to invest public money away from that supporting grain production. 
In a further comment the articles author, Jim Plamondon, adds a possible surprisingly solution: don't produce grain, produce a product:

'But the thing that makes it [Cambodian Jasmine Rice] the best — its higher concentration of 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline, its main aromatic component — evaporates long before it reaches the high-value consumer. By chilling the best Cambodian Jasmine Rice ASAP after harvest and milling, and keeping it chilled until it reaches the consumer’s home, Cambodia can establish a new, de-commoditized, gourmet rice product'. 

Well, not surprisingly this lesson has not come too mind in the past month in Cambodia. Starting off with the Khmer Times (Sep. 16): 

'The Cambodia Rice Bank (CRB) will intervene to prevent the price of fragrant rice from falling further by offering to buy the staple grain directly from farmers at the market price of 840 riel (21 cents) a kilogram. The CRB also called on farmers to stop selling fragrant paddy rice to millers at below market price, according to a statement released yesterday.
...
Srey Chanthy, a rice expert told Khmer Times that many farmers could be made bankrupt if the price per kilogram of fragrant rice stays around 700 riel, from 1,200 riel previously.
“These farmers have debts to pay to microfinance institutions, fertilizer companies and mechanical harvester owners. On top of that they have no proper place to store their harvested paddy rice and no access to silos during the rainy season,” he said.
Mr. Chanthy said the only way out of this quagmire was for the government to disburse the promised emergency loans, through the Cambodia Rice Federation or RDB, of between $20 million to $30 million to rice millers and exporter to purchase rice for processing.
...
In a statement on Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture ordered all provincial agricultural departments to take action against rice millers who exploit farmers due to their inability to command a fair price for their paddy harvest because of a lack of bargaining power.
The ministerial order bans rice millers from block-buying the whole rice crop from farmers, just before harvest, and offering them a below market price for the exclusive purchase'.

Well, it's not known whether this measure will have a lasting effect, it did serve as a prelude to more ruffling of the rice feathers. 
The Phnom Penh Post (Sep. 19) reports a few days later how farmers are taking to the streets. Albeit unpaved country lanes ... :

'Attempting to call attention to the havoc low rice prices are wreaking on their livelihoods, hundreds of farmers in Battambang’s Sangke district took to the streets yesterday, symbolically pouring rice onto National Road 5.  

...

Some have blamed the dip in prices on an upsurge in the amount of rice imported from Vietnam. “Vietnam produces far cheaper rice than we do, so it is very appealing to the traders to buy Vietnamese rice and distribute domestically,” said Khem Bunlen, executive director of the Cambodian Farmer Rice company'.

The Phnom Penh Post (Sep. 19) does note some hope:

'Rice millers said yesterday they welcomed the prime minister’s announcement that the government would make over $20 million in funds available shortly to support cash-strapped millers and prop up falling paddy prices.
“We’ve been waiting for these loans for a long time like fish waiting to be fed,” said Phon Nary, director-general of Heng Huch Rice Mill in Battambang province. “I hope to receive the loans soon so that we can survive.”
Cambodia’s rice industry is facing a crisis as two consecutive years of drought take their toll on farmers and millers struggle to stay afloat.
...
Song Saran, CEO of Amru Rice, said he welcomed the prime minister’s announcement, but he felt the government’s commitment to the rice sector was long overdue and the loan package would only cover about 10 percent of the capital needed by millers to buy rice from farmers at a fair price. He estimated that an additional $50 million would be needed to ensure that prices remained stable'.

As does the Cambodia Daily (Sep. 20). Note how the press are skeptical in whether or not the policy will have any effect.

'In the latest effort to mitigate the impact of plummeting rice prices, Prime Minister Hun Sen said on Monday that the government was seeking $300 million from China to boost the capacity of rice millers and provide funds to them for purchasing paddy from farmers.

The announcement, made during a graduation ceremony in Phnom Penh, came just days after the premier approved a $27 million grant to rice millers for purchasing paddy—$20 million from the government and $7 from the Rural Development Bank. The average price per ton of paddy dropped from $250 in mid-August to $193 last week.

...

Miguel Chanco, lead regional analyst for Economist Intelligence Unit, said the government’s financial intervention was no surprise, as it “could benefit the ruling party politically at the coming commune elections” set for June next year.

“However, if we were looking at a longer time horizon, I wouldn’t say that it’s a sector that I would put all my cards on as rice prices are unlikely to return to the heights seen in the late 2000s,” Mr. Chanco added.

“Public funds would be better spent on long-term measures to wean more people off rice farming, thereby reducing Cambodia’s vulnerability to the ebb and flow of global commodity prices.”

Then come unorthodox measures. The Phnom Penh Post (Sep. 21):

A day after a state bank called on Cambodians to buy domestically milled rice to help a government scheme to stabilise prices in the sector, multiple ruling party officials were reaching into their own pockets to do just that.
The Rural Development Bank – tasked with distributing $27 million in emergency grants to millers so they can raise their price for paddy rice – yesterday featured a list of officials and businessmen on its Facebook page who had heeded their call on Monday to buy local product.
Noting some of the buyers were members of Cambodian People’s Party working groups, the post said the group had bought more than 100 tonnes from Battambang miller FedRice.
Undersecretary of Finance Ros Seilava, among those to order from the Battambang firm, echoed Rith’s remarks. “I do not think it is about political affiliation,” he said. “The government intends to solve the problem.”
The government’s loan package aims to stabilise the price of paddy rice, which has fallen precipitously from $240 per tonne to $192 per tonne over the past month, leading to protests by rice farmers over the weekend in Battambang.
Millers will be offered loans at 8 percent annual interest on the condition they purchase rice paddy from farmers for no less than $218 per tonne – a price that ensures farmers make a profit on their crop.
Reached yesterday, FedRice stock controller Chi Vaon said the company was selling their product at between $530 and $540 per tonne, which included transportation to Phnom Penh.
Vaon welcomed the demand in the wake of the bank’s call, but called for more government measures to improve exports.
Political analyst Ou Virak yesterday said that the mobilisation of the CPP’s patronage network to “rescue” farmers might bring short-term relief for some, but did nothing to address the need for long-term reforms.
“The problem with the patronage system [is that it] kind of works in a way, but it’s limited to crisis response,” Virak said.
“It’s also part of the reason why there’s no systematic or institutional way of dealing with or preventing these crises.”
Meanwhile, Miguel Chanco, lead ASEAN analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, said he wasn’t surprised to hear of CPP working groups moving in to help create demand, particularly with commune elections approaching.
“I think short term, there’s no question it is going to provide some relief to rice prices, but at the end of the day, Cambodia is still very much out-priced in the global rice market, which is at the moment oversupplied,” he said.
“So regardless of what the government does in the short term, international price trends will still remain very weak going forward.”

More short term stop gap measures ...

And who is to blame? Cambodia Daily (Sep. 22):

'With the government scrambling to protect farmers from rapidly falling rice prices, Agriculture Minister Veng Sakhon on Wednesday poured blame on the private sector for boosting competing countries at the expense of Cambodia by importing products that could be sourced locally.

...

During a news conference at the Agriculture Ministry’s headquarters in Phnom Penh on Wednesday, Mr. Sakhon said Cambodia’s general failure to compete with its neighbors in rice sales was due to a lack of innovation and research by local businesspeople.

“Regarding the private sector, they are careless and not smart about competing in business,” he said. “They are not smart enough to compete regionally.”

Both Vietnam and Thailand have gradually lowered the price of their exported rice since 2012 in order to compete internationally, Mr. Sakhon said.

Cambodian businesspeople “should study the market prices and what our friends around us are doing—what they are able to do and what we are not able to do. Because it is very unfortunate that although we have customers, we make a loss,” he said.

...

Lay Chhun Hour, CEO of City Rice Mill in Battambang province, said basic utility costs were already stretching the private sector, and that the government needed to come up with a plan to support long-term efforts to strengthen the country’s rice sector.

“How can we be smart if the cost of electricity—an important factor of production—is high?” he asked, citing significantly lower costs in neighboring countries'.

It may well be, that these measures have effect. The Cambodia Daily (Sep. 26):

'The government’s injection of funds into the rice sector and call for officials and wealthy friends to purchase paddy has put the domestic market back into motion after a sudden plunge in prices, according to the Rural Development Bank (RDB).
...
Ser Lalen, general manager of Hakser Rice Mill in Kompong Cham province, said he had seen a drastic increase in sales since the government’s campaign began about a week ago. Because of this, sales for this month and last month increased by 30 percent compared to last year, to 45 tons of milled rice.
He said the government stimulus had driven the increase.
“As we have support from the market, we decided to buy much more paddy from farmers,” he said, explaining that the mill’s intake had doubled from 50 tons during this period last year to 100 tons this year.
But according to Sam Arth Veasna, vice president at Federation of Cambodia Farmer Organizations for Development, many farmers have still been left out.
“The government has spoken out about the falling paddy price, but I see that implementers—rice mills, traders—do not listen,” he said, adding that farmers in Battambang province were still being offered well below normal prices despite blocking a highway in protest last week'.

More measures. Phnom Penh Post (Sep. 27):

'The state-owned bank entrusted with extending $27 million in emergency loans to millers to purchase rice paddy has marginally lowered the interest rate on these conditional loans in an effort to shorten some of the strings attached.

The Rural Development Bank (RDB) announced late on Sunday that it would lower the annual interest rate on loans to rice millers to 7 percent, from 8 percent.

...

Under the terms of the lending package announced last week, millers who accept the loans are required to purchase paddy rice from farmers at $210 per tonne at the farm gate or $225 per tonne at their warehouse'.

But alas. The Cambodia Daily (Sep. 30):

'Rice paddy prices have taken a new dive to less than $150 per ton ahead of the Pchum Ben holiday in an ongoing crisis that has only deepened despite government intervention earlier this month.

Sinking from $250 per ton in the middle of last month to $192 earlier this month, the government approved $27 million in subsidies to help mills purchase paddy from farmers and appealed to officials and friends of the CPP to buy paddy and dry it themselves, making room for more at mills.

...

With international paddy prices continuing to fall, Hun Lak, vice president of the rice federation, said the current crisis is likely to carry into the country’s main harvest season in November unless the government intervenes again.

At that point in time, the issue would become “bigger than now,” he said.

Chan Sophal, director of the Center for Policy Studies for Cambodian Development, agreed that there is little that could be done to help farmers through this struggle, except by continuing to pour money into the sector.

“I don’t expect the government to have enough cash to help every farmer,” he said.

“It’s not looking good for the coming harvest in November and December.”'

If anything, a lesson learnt (though it was known before the lesson was started). Governments simply can not intervene in rice markets, other than becoming a major player one self. Throwing money at problems concerning rice pricing does not work.

The AECnewstoday (Oct. 5) tries to conclude the speed bumps, but adds:

'According to Reuters, the Cambodia rice sector have a hard time competing with other Asean rice exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam because of expensive transport and higher electricity prices.
Kenn Kunthy, chief executive of rice miller Battambang Rice Investment Co, told Reuters that falling rice prices were a global trend and the Cambodia rice sector faces fierce international competition. ‘”There have been no orders from abroad so millers couldn’t buy rice from farmers”,’ Mr Kann said.
...
Prices being offered by mills affiliated with the rice federation had fallen to about $150 per ton for paddy on October 5, despite the stimulus subsidies'.

Sealed 

Some sideline news from Cambodia. The Cambodia Daily (Sep. 29):

'In an effort to stir national pride and bolster the faltering rice sector, the Cambodian Rice Federation has created a seal emblazoned with the federation’s logo to identify rice that has been grown and milled in Cambodia.

And if the carrot doesn’t work, they are also prepared to use a stick: more vigorous enforcement of laws that punish those who sell imported rice falsely claiming that it is 100 percent Cambodian grown.

...

Var Roth San, an adviser to the Commerce Ministry, said that those selling “fraudulent rice” would be jailed for a year and have their business closed. Those who used the federation’s seal fraudulently would be jailed for five years.

The moves come as sluggish global demand for rice has hit markets across Southeast Asia, driving down prices and bringing Cambodian rice into steeper competition with its neighbors. The government has pumped money into the rice sector over the past two weeks to prevent farmers from going bankrupt.

Challenges also come from further afield. Nigeria, once the world’s second-largest importer of rice at 3 million tons per year behind China, which imports 4 million tons annually, started self-sustainability measures last year and for months at a time has completely frozen rice imports. Other West African nations are following suit, Mr. Bassett said.

Thailand, meanwhile, is trying to rid itself of a nearly 10 million ton rice surplus and Vietnam, with its more cost-efficient production, is able to maintain a significantly lower price point for its crops, which frequently cross its porous border with Cambodia'.

Then the concept of niche marketing. The Phnom Penh Post (Sep. 16):

'GIZ Cambodia, a branch of Germany’s international development agency, signed an agreement yesterday with local organic food retailer Khmer Organic Cooperative to provide technical support to develop organic vegetable production and to assist the firm in obtaining certification for its products.

The agreement calls for the establishment of two demonstration farms for organic fruits and vegetables that will later be used as a national organic training centre. It also aims to strengthen regional market linkages, establish local organic supply networks and raise consumer awareness'.

Fair and square

How to deal with political opposition? Get them financially.

Despite Thailand continuing to thrive on corruption and nepotism, the junta sees fit to persue legal challenges (from biased courts) so as to discredit previous democractic governemnts. And the stick used is the previous governments extravagant rice buying scheme which left precious little room for the role of the purchaser.

What follows are a couple of sound bytes:

Bangkok Post (Sep. 9):

'The Anti-Money Laundering Office (Amlo) is preparing to seize assets from two companies including Siam Indica in relation to allegedly fake government-to-government rice deals'.

Bangkok Post (Sep. 19):

'Former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and five ex-ministerial officials involved in the fraudulent government-to-government (G2G) rice sales have been ordered to pay 20 billion baht in compensation.

Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn authorised the ministry's permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara to sign an administrative order demanding the payment.

But doubt has been cast over whether Ms Chutima is willing to sign the order and her expected successor, Wiboonlasana Ruamraksa, has also expressed doubt'.

Bangkok Post (Sep. 19):

'After much-publicised reluctance, Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn on Monday signed an order demanding 20 billion baht in compensation from former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and five ex-ministerial officials for false government-to-government (G2G) rice deals. Two people signed the order but neither of them did it in their capacities. Mrs Apiradi signed it on behalf of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha while commerce permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara signed it on Mrs Apiradi's behalf'.

Bangkok Post (Sep. 19):

'Government debt worth 510 billion baht, borrowed from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to fund the last administration's loss-making rice-pledging scheme, will take an estimated 16 years to be paid off. Luck Wajananawat, president of the state-backed bank, said if the loan repayment amount remains unchanged, the government will take around 16 years to pay off the debt'.

Bangkok Post (Sep. 24):

'A government committee has concluded that Yingluck Shinawatra must pay 35.7 billion baht in compensation for losses from her rice-pledging programme from 2012-14'.

The Bangkok Post (Sep. 25):

'Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has asked Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to treat her as fairly as he does with his younger brother and permanent secretary for defence Preecha Chan-o-cha.

...

Ms Yingluck's comment was a reference to insinuations made against Gen Prayut's brother Pol Gen Preecha. A company, of which Gen Preecha's son was a shareholder, is suspected of having been awarded seven projects from the 3rd Army Region between December 2014 and April this year worth a combined 97 million baht'.

Bangkok Post (Oct. 2):

'The Public Sector Anti-Corruption Commission aims to start its investigation into allegations of state graft under the Yingluck Shinawatra government's rice-pledging scheme this week. PACC secretary-general
Prayong Priyajit said the agency has received 853 complaints of malfeasance perpetrated by officials at the Marketing Organisation for Farmers, the Public Warehouse Organisation and the Bank for Agriculture  and Agricultural Cooperatives'.

So basically all shit is being shoved in the same direction.
Stats
Let's see what else is there to report? It's mostly data crunching
The Bangkok Post (Sep. 30):

'Thailand remained the world's second-largest rice exporter after India in the first eight months of this year, with exports down almost 11% last month, according to exporters. From January to August, Thailand shipped 6.06 million tonnes of rice worth 96.23 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year by volume and 1.4% by value'.

Most exports were destined for Africa. 

In other rice news from Thailand, the Bangkok Post (Sep. 8):

'The government yesterday approved the sale of 755,000 tonnes of rice stocks to 11 winning bidders for a combined 7.2 billion baht. According to Duangporn Rodphaya, director-general of the Foreign TradeTrade Department, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha approved the amount in his capacity as chairman of the National Rice Policy and Management Committee'. 

Bangkok Post (Sep. 9):

'Authorities are speeding up measures to keep rice prices steady after forecasting 83% of all paddy in the main crop will be harvested between October and December this year. The Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperative Ministry has projected a total of 24 million tonnes of paddy from the 2016/17 main crop, which runs from around April this year to February next year. Of the total, 20 million tonnes will be harvested in the last three months of this year'.

Sticky

The Bangkok Post (Sep. 12) reports on the sugar sector:

'Last week, the government announced a policy to expand the sugar industry. The strategy, initially, sounds good, because it will catapult the Thai agriculture sector from a raw material supplier to a high value industry. FarmVille version 4.0, if you will. 

In the upgraded version, the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) reportedly has approved licences for investors to develop 25 more sugar factories, , adding to the existing 54 plants, over the next five years. That means the country's sugar cane industry aims to raise sugar plantations from 10 million to 16 million rai by 2026. Six million rai of of plantations will involve crop-switching as the government encourages rice farmers to switch to more lucrative and higher value crops such as sugar cane. 

...

Personally, I like this policy. Yet, I cannot help but worry it might worsen pollution caused by sugar harvesting.
...

Everything seems to be going well, except the worsening air pollution and environmental degradation caused by pre-harvest sugarcane burning, which precedes cutting.
...
Such a practice takes place in other sugar-harvesting nations. In the US state of Florida, the law still permits pre-harvest burning (which the Sierra Club, a conservation group, has tried to stop).Brazil and Australia have passed laws to ban sugarcane burning. Now Thailand needs to tackle the problem. 

...

But the practice has changed due to the growth of the industry. Thailand has become a major sugar exporter. Plantations have been expanded to meet higher demand. Yet skilled harvesters have diminished in number, either retiring or shifting to lighter work.
...

The sugar industry upgrade might sound appealing. But if pre-harvest burning rages on, we might find the taste of sugar not so sweet after all'. 

This preludes calls to upgrade. The Bangkok Post (Sep. 19):

'Thailand, the world's second largest sugar exporter after Brazil, is to overhaul its sugar production and distribution systems for the first time in more than three decades in order to avoid being challenged by Brazil at the World Trade Organization (WTO). 

...

According to the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB), Thailand will have to revoke its current 70:30 profit-sharing system, in place since 1984, which will require cancelling its quota system and floating domestic sugar prices.
...

Brazil is challenging Thailand over "subsidies" for sugar producers that it says have dragged down global prices and allow Thailand to win a larger market share at the expense of Brazilian producers, conduct that is not in line with international trade agreements. 

...

To keep food prices and inflation rate under control, the government has been maintaining a price ceiling for sugar, with the retail price fixed at 23.50 baht per kilogramme by the Commerce Ministry. 

The price ceiling occasionally results in sugar shortages as profiteers normally smuggle domestic sugar to sell in neighbouring countries, especially when global sugar prices rise above the fixed domestic retail price'.

Alarm

As could be expected rice prices dropping tend to affect the rice industry itself rather than farmers directly. At least initially. And the current slump in prices is no difference, not in Cambodia.:

Disturbing news. Phnom Penh Post gives voices to the not so satisfied rice industry (Mar. 3):

'A newly formed coalition of rice millers and exporters has raised alarm bells, forecasting the imminent “collapse” of the nation’s rice sector within two years and blaming in part “governance failure” by the industry’s apex body'.

Infighting?

Not for long though. The Cambodian Rice Federation has got the message (Phnom Penh Post, Mar. 10):

'Responding to criticism, Cambodia’s apex rice industry body announced yesterday that it would submit a plan to Prime Minister Hun Sen that addresses two of the major challenges facing the Kingdom’s rice sector – competition from rice imports and access to finance for millers.

The Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF), which has come under fire from members critical of the direction in which the nation’s rice industry is being steered, will ask the government to make it mandatory for rice importers to have licences, and ask for its help in facilitating low-interest loans for millers, the federation revealed at a press conference yesterday'.

The Khmertimes (Mar. 17) has a similar article on the problems the Cambodian Rice Federation will put to the government:

'Two main issues will be put to the government when it holds an urgent meeting with the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) next week – a special fund package to help millers and exporters and a ban on imported rice from neighboring countries.
...
The special meeting was set up after complaints from the CRF outlined problems with a lack of funds to support production, imported rice from neighboring countries, the high cost of production, the high cost of logistics, the high cost of electricity, a lack of water, finding good seed stock, a lack of farm labor due to immigration and limited infrastructure and port storage facilities. The CRF claims that about 40 percent of the small- and medium-sized rice millers and exporters are close to stopping production and going bankrupt'.

The response of the government (Phnom Penh Post, Mar. 18):

'The Commerce Ministry has created a special taskforce to study challenges threatening the sustainability of the nation’s rice industry and will report its findings within two weeks, a ministry official said yesterday'.

Let's see what the government can come up with ...

Piloting

Besides the above (the main newsworthy items on rice production in Cambodia) what else topical has made the press? 
 

The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 1) looks at the findings of an insurance programme on rice crops:

'A pilot project that offers micro-insurance to help rice farmers cope with the risks of flooding and drought is looking to build on the success of its first season by scaling up beyond three existing provinces. The Cambodia Micro Agriculture Insurance Scheme (CAMAIS), launched in the second half of 2015, aims to support local smallholder farmers by providing insurance payouts to those affected by severe weather-related events attributed to climate change. Rice farmers who join the scheme pay an insurance fee at the start of the growing season based on the size of their farm, type of paddy grown and technical tools used. In return, they receive consultation on farming techniques and get an insurance payout if their crop is damaged either by flood or drought.

...

According to Youssey [project manager of CAMAIS], 153 agricultural families joined the micro-insurance scheme during its first season, paying a total premium of $1,230 to insure 136 hectares of rice farms. At the end of the season, roughly 80 per cent of this collected capital was used to settle farmers’ claims, with the rest used to cover operational expenses and commissions for agents.

Around half of the rice farmers that purchased the crop insurance made compensation claims based on varying amounts of crop damage; however, only 52 of these claims met the criteria for receiving compensation, Youssey said'.

A lesson for all.

The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 1) looks at the business of groundwater pumping. It's an increasing practice, exacerbating problems now the rains have been so poor.

'Extensive groundwater irrigation jeopardises access for shallow domestic water supply wells, raises the costs of pumping for all groundwater users, and may exacerbate arsenic contamination and land subsidence that are already widespread hazards in the regio, ...'.

On a sideline the Bangkok Post (Mar. 2) has one answer to the Thailand's water shortages: include local say of water management. 

 

Tractor politics as presented by Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 16):

'Local tractor dealers have reported strong sales of new equipment. Ngorn Saing, CEO for RMA (Cambodia) Co Ltd, exclusive local distributor of John Deere tractors, said his company sold about 300 tractors last year, a 30 per cent year-on-year increase. He projects similar growth in the coming year as farmers increasingly turn to mechanised farm help'.

Much is made of how tractors are assisting rice production. However it's probably cassava growing that's really pushing the sales. After all besides harvesting, there's very little use for tractors in small rice fields.

Sparks

Italians are afraid that Vietnamese interests will seek to grow and export rice from Cambodia bound for Europe using Cambodia's easy (and less costlier) access to the EU (Risoitaliano, Mar. 19). 

The article somehow makes a connection with what's coming from the Vietnamese press. Vietnamnetbridge (Mar. 10):

'However, Cambodian exporters can sell rice to the European market. The EU is the biggest consumer of Cambodian rice.
Why can Cambodia sell rice to the EU, while Vietnam, the second largest rice exporter in the world, cannot?
According to the Commercial Affairs Division of the Vietnamese Embassy in Cambodia, Cambodian businessmen can export rice to the EU because they can enjoy preferences'.

That said, the same source, 4 days later, warns of the threat posed by Cambodia as it gets better access to China. Though hardly having an impact on Vietnam's ability to export. So maybe not such a good source of info ...

The Mekongcommons (Mar. 17) has an extensive article on organic rice farmers in Surin, Thailand. Touching on the System of Rice Intensification and coping with climate change, it's a very read worthy article on pressures faced by rice farmers in the region and how to cope with these pressures.

The Bangkok Post (Feb. 27) notes that the recent auctions of rice are doing well.

And again, the Bangkok Post (Mar. 11) looks at the government programme of weaning Thai farmers off rice:

'Ms Prapatpon, 48, returned to school last month for a state-funded training programme designed to wean farmers off water-intensive rice and teach them how to grow other crops.

....

Going back to school was meant to give farmer ms Prapatpon fresh ideas and new strategies for survival on her farm in Chai Nat province. Instead, she said: "I can't apply any of this."

....

For farmer-turned-student Chaiyapoj Phak-on, the past two years have been a harsh contrast to the heady days of the previous government's income-propping rice-buying programme, which he called "the best time of my life." 

As usual there's more to be reported on politics and rice growing in Thailand. The Thai junta is in favour of an open society. As long as it toes the junta's line. From the Asian Correspondent (Feb. 24), this is the full article:

'THAI Prime Minister and junta head Prayuth Chan-ocha lost his temper at a Reuters journalist at Government House today, apparently over the news agency’s recent interview with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The reporter asked Prayuth about the cost of the damage of the rice-pledging scheme, which was implemented by the previous government under ousted Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra – Thaksin’s sister.

Prayuth said the number had not been finalized yet and would be announced later.

Then sparks flew.

“Why? You really want it now? You must tell Reuters to say [write] better yesterday [Tuesday],” he snapped, according to The Nation.

He then abruptly left the podium for his upstairs office'.

In similar vein: trying the tried. The Bangkok Post (Feb. 26) has a wide article exploring all what's wrong with Thai agriculture and trying to put the blame with one person. 
Oddly it's the Thai Rice Exporters Association which is assisting with the accusations that the previous government sold rice to China at lower prices than pledged, then stocked the rice and re-pledged it again to itself. 
Surely those accountable would be brought to court, why than use it to blame just one person?

Something different. Riceberry? That's the name given to (mostly organic) dark rice. Thailand rice exporters:

'Rice Berry is a cross-bred unmilled rice possessing dark violet grain, which is a combination of Hom Nin Rice, with well-known antioxidant properties, and Thai Hom Mali Rice, also known as Thai Jasmine/ Fragrant Rice or KhaoDawk Mali 105. Rice Berry contains three times more iron than other varieties. And not only does it contain a high level of antioxidants such as beta-carotene, gamma oryzanol, vitamin E and folic acid (folate) in itself, it also becomes soft and is aromatic when itโ€™s cooked, which is the outstanding trait of Thai Hom Mali Rice'. 

The Bangkok Post (Mar. 1) has a recent vdo on growing and market possibilities of riceberry. 

Silde

It may be marginal news, but it's impacts are to be huge. We are talking about the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

What is the RCEP?  It supposed to be Asia's answer to the US-lead TPP. Does it serve the interests of Asian farmers? Grain.org (Mar. 17):

'Hot on the heels of the TPP, it is clear that RCEP will restrict seed saving and seed exchange at a time when, under the extreme pressures of climate change, farmers need more diversity in their fields, not less. Furthermore, it could increase their dependence on external inputs and raise their costs of production. Opponents of RCEP say that the trade deal could triple the current price for seeds.[iii] Trade agreements like RCEP should not give corporations monopoly rights over seeds, prevent farmers from saving seeds or promote GMOs—but that is what they do. These agreements are inherently biased towards the interests of corporate and political elites'.

That does not bode well for the future of small and sustainable (rice) farmers in the region.

Sam Mohanty on IRRI.org discusses rice prices and the dwindling of global rice stocks (Feb. 22):

'Despite the current stability in the rice market, there are reasons for concern about the direction of the market in the medium term (mid- to late 2016). The rice stocks of five major exporters (India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States) continue to slide since reaching a peak of nearly 41 million tons in 2013 (Fig. 1). According to USDA data, the biggest drawdown of stocks in these countries is underway this year, with a 40% drop from last year, to reach 19 million tons by late 2016'. 

A lot of this stock selling has come from Thailand which, in hindsight, has been providing the global market with a hoard of rice enabling prices to stabilize: public goods used for the good of the public. 

Naturally, the Thai government has seen little return on their stocks and it could be expected that they would dwindle away. Has any other entity stepped forward to possibly avert a rice price explosion? No. 

He concludes:

'With limited Thai rice stocks in the warehouse, it remains to be seen how major exporting and importing countries react to such uncertainty [causes of climate change and/or El Niño]'. 

One worrying impact for the immediate future: farmers in Southeast Asia will not be able to step up to the plate if prices rise due to drought. The lack of water impedes any potential to expand production.

So what about farmers elsewhere? 

But looking at this in the longer term, things look better than before the 2007 rice price explosion. The market is not dictated by Thailand (Vietnam and India have a substantial role), there are more upcoming exporters (Cambodia / Burma) and major importing nations such as Indonesia and the Philippines have better domestic responses.

Cuts

Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 15) has been tallying sugar exports and reveals that in line with expectations, Cambodia's exports to Europe will disappear:

'New figures show that Cambodia’s sugar exports to the European Union fell by 94.8 per cent between 2013 and 2015, amid accusations of rights abuses and land grabbing in the Kingdom’s industry.

...

Meanwhile, Am Sokha, case coordinator at the Community Legal Education Centre, which is also a member of the NGO coalition, said the trade decline sent a clear message to the Cambodian industry to clean up its act'.  

On the plus side. The drought in Southeast Asia is pushing global sugar prices higher (Bangkok Post, Mar. 10). That said with the drought there's little opportunity to raise output to take advantage of higher prices.

The Bangkok Post (Feb. 29) on rubber: 

'Thailand is seeking to boost sales after prices tumbled to an almost seven year low in January as slowing economic growth in China weakened demand from the biggest consumer. Along with Indonesia and Malaysia, Thailand agreed this month to cut shipments of natural rubber. Thailand has also agreed to buy rubber from growers at above-market prices'.

So with this concerted effort to protect rubber producers, it comes as no wonder that rubber exporters in Cambodia also receive assistance. 
Wrong.

The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 7):

'Rubber producers said yesterday the government’s decision to amend the export tax scheme on natural rubber fell short of expectations and would do little to stem the losses of farmers as rubber prices hover near a six-year low'. 

At current prices, the tax amounts to a 5% levy, thus leading to pricing out of Cambodia's market.

Worse as reports the Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 17): 

'Cambodia's rubber industry’s woes have begun to crystallise after two major rubber plantations announced deep losses yesterday, attributing their downturn to high production costs and a drop in global rubber prices'.

In the meantime the past measures announced by Thailand seem at least in the short term to have pushed prices up, so reports the Bangkok Post (Mar.  7). However the short term gains may well lead to long term losses.

Cassava is leading the way. The Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 23):

'The tonnage of Cambodia’s agricultural exports increased by over 20 per cent last year, led by a surge in shipments of dried cassava chips, according to the latest Ministry of Agriculture data.

Total exports of 66 raw and semi-processed agricultural products – chiefly cassava, rice and rubber – amounted to 4.1 million tonnes in 2015, compared to 48 products with a total of 3.4 million tonnes a year earlier, the ministry said in its annual report on agricultural production.

...

Hun Ly Heu, director of cassava-exporting firm Drycorpkh Cambodia Co Ltd, said the fact that more farmers were selling their cassava despite falling prices was a sign of their desperation.

“Our market depends on orders from neighbouring countries and farmers could not wait for cassava prices to rebound due to their loan commitments,” he said, calling for the government to support farmers by setting a price floor on agricultural products'.

Bust to boom

Land politics in Laos: the case gone banana's. From the Southeast Asian Globe (Feb. 10) which reports on the province of Bokeo: 

'“The Chinese are renting 1,600 square metres of land for the equivalent of between $300 to $600 per year, which is roughly what the farmers would earn from this area if they cultivate the land. So they get the same amount but don’t have to work,” says Sompavong.

However, such deals always have their negative sides. For instance, the concession contracts usually do not specify that the investor has to clean up the land – often rice paddies – and return it to its previous condition after the contract ends'. 

However it's the accompanying massive use of pesticides which is proving a headache.

'Then, at the end of September, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests warned four Chinese companies for “excessive use of pesticides” and ordered inspections on the types and amounts of chemicals used at some of the banana plantations. The revocation of business licences was threatened if laws continued to be contravened'.

This comes hot on the heels of another China induced crisis in northern Laos: that concerning rubber plantations. These plantations mostly seem to be a proxy for China land acquisition. 
Now with rubber prices hardly worth tapping the trees, banana's are seen as the way forward. But at the same unfair economical advantages such as buyers monopolizing the crop (as the crop can only get imported to China) local government collusion, etc. 
A good starter on what's wrong in the north of Laos needs heed and read the recent study Falling Rubber Prices in Northern Laos: Local Responses and Policy Options.

Abbreviated

An interesting article throwing up SOME NEW quandaries was to be found in the NZ Herald (Nov. 2). 

Focusing on pine it raises the question, when is GM GM? discussing new technologies:

'They are novel DNA-changing techniques that blur the lines around what is and what isn't genetic engineering. Their names alone are fuse blowing: zinc-finger nuclease (ZFN), TALENs (transcription activator-like effector nucleases), cisgenics, oligo-directed mutagenesis (ODM) and others.
These molecular technologies, which target specific genes, offer potential to breed crops, trees and animals with desirable traits and block out less desired aspects more accurately and efficiently than traditional GM and non-GM techniques'.

And though the at the heart of this New Zealand discussion is pine, it also notes that it could erode NZ's green food image:

'It sets up the potential for exporters to inadvertently send traces of a ZFN organism to Europe and potentially trigger market objections," Terry says.
He cites kiwifruit as an example of a crop that could be inadvertently contaminated through the spread of pollen from pines with ZFN-altered DNA'.

At stake of course is what is what. If GMO is to be avoided, what is ZFN? And what lies ahead? Does anyone have an answer? Or are we to leave the dicussion for scientists (= trustworthy?), activists, businesses or lawyers   ....?

Thai state of affairs

While Thailand sees yet a implosion, it's rice pledge scheme is at the heart of not only it's critiques but also in the center of the political struggle. Despite all it's misgivings the largely rural electorate sees rice-pledging as it's return on investment.

It's thus funny to see the opposition trying to make hay out of the scheme (Nation, 28). As if they have a ready answer for the non-urban electorate. And as the PM says, we know what the shortcomings are, no news there.


In the past month the IMF waded into the Thai debate slash quagmire (Bangkok Post, Nov. 13). 
It urges a rethink. 
Because it is eroding public confidence in Thailand's finances. 
Well, so may be, but confidence in the country has long ago ebbed away and the constant cycle of protest / counter protest / election landslides and mini-coups has a lot more to do with that ....

The Thai government though, believe they are in the good. According to the Nation (Nov. 13): 

'This helps boost the economy, as farmers’ income will rise and their debt will decline. As such, their purchasing power is increasing ...'. 

There's no counter-argument? 
Well, the cost of the scheme may not reflect well on the benefits, the potential for financial ruin remains. Debt may well go up. Too much middle man involvement (reading skimming). And graft possibilities.

So it's not so strange to hear of delayed payments to farmers. Where is all the money coming from? And how to pay for the rice buying? The answer are bonds. 
The Bangkok Post (Nov. 20) notes that the government will put a 3-year bond on the market to finance further purchases. Will it be succesful? It might as it provides higher returns for investors. And more debt for the government ...

However, despite this cash infusion (and delay in payments), liquidity of Thailand's agricultural bank (BAAC) seems to be ok (Bangkok Post, Nov. 23).

'Previously, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) disclosed a plan to raise funds of 140 billion baht for the 2013-14 main crop, with 75 billion baht to be raised through government bonds to finance the scheme and borrowing in the form of term loans. "Part of the proceeds from the PDMO will be used to repay the bank for the accrued debt from the subsidy where it is supposed to be cleared by thefiscal-2014 budget. The bank's liquidity crunch is an immediate crisis, so we need to use the budget to handle this first," said Mr Tanusak. He insisted that by doing so, the government's paddy scheme is financially manageable'.

That's why there is no need for the sale of bonds? That might contradict earlier plans, so lets assume they are still on the rails. The rice pledge scheme will receive a new infusion of cash (Bangkok Post, Oct. 30), that's all. And so will others ...

How much is lost is a big question mark.

The so-called Post Audit Committee has been doing some calculations and puts the loss at 330 milllion baht (just 10 billion $US!) or nearly 60% of what was paid in by the government (Nation, Nov. 6).

Bailouts if not coming from the financial sector have to be seen overseas.

Hope is still pinned on China. More rumours of possible deals in the pipeline. The Bangkok Post (Nov. 21) describes claims of a government to government deal between Thailand and the state enterprise of Heilongjiang. 1.2 million ton apparently sold based on global prices. Probably meaning another heavy write-off. One snag, as I see it, the rice will be partially be used as cheap hand-out to 

'poverty stricken nations'.

Which means that these nations won't buy any rice anymore ... Oh and the deal is ex-warehouse revealing that the Chinese might have some issues with quality. Or lack of ...

It's also noted by the same newspaper, the same day that there are questions to be asked. The above. And:

'Nipon Poapongsakorn, a former president of the Thailand Development Research Institute and now a fellow at the TDRI, also questioned the validity and viability of the contract, noting that China's state state enterprises are allowed to import only half the yearly total, with the balance to be handled by private Chinese firms'.

The best way to get your money back is to sell. This from Reuters (Nov. 13):

'The results of the earlier tenders were disappointing. The government sold just 240,000 tonnes of rice in three tenders in July and August out of the 660,000 tonnes offered and another 53,000 tonnes out of the 300,339 tonnes offered in October.

Buyers would prefer to obtain fresh rice from the current harvest than buy from the stocks, traders said'.

No silver lining.

Others seek to address how much rice is stocked and hanging above the market.

Oryzae.com (Nov. 21) mentions stocks taken by USDA are near to 15 million tonnes, excluding the 2 million recently pledged. 

The Bangkok Post (Nov. 21) has it's own take on the stocks of rice in Thailand:

'The Thai holdings will surge 18% to 14.9 million tonnes in 2013 and 2014, the International Grains Council forecasts.

...

Bad weather that hurt crops in the Philippines as well as in India will provide price support in the near term, said Samarendu Mohanty, senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute, based in Los Banos, the Philippines. Output in India may drop as much as five million tonnes to about 100 million to 105 million tonnes in 2013 and 2014, Mohanty said.

"With these Philippines and India cases, and China importing more, I don't think the price will go down any more," said Mohanty, forecasting a gain of as much as $30 a tonne by the end of March. "The upside is limited by ample supply in the market and stockpiles in Thailand."'

Bigger is better so it seems and no guessing that Thailand wants to become the worlds no. 1 rice exporter.

'Thailand is maintaining its original projection to export seven million tonnes of rice this year and is set to reclaim its previous role as world’s top rice exporter next year, according to the Commerce Ministry'. 

So reports the MCOT English News (Nov. 20).

Away from the serious business (or not?), the Not the Nation (Nov. 20) announces that the rice stacks will be transformed:

'Attempting to counter accusations of economic mismanagement, the government unveiled today a bold proposal to turn all of its unsold rice stocks into a “world-class tourist attraction and sports destination” by creating the world’s largest artificial ski mountain.

At a joint press conference with the Tourism Authority of Thailand, prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra revealed images of the proposed 340-meter high hill, complete with five automated chairlifts and a 200-room ski lodge and hotel at the base'.

!!!

Time for something different?

Well If the government doesn't know what policy to follow, why not ask businessmen themselves? 
Charoen Pokprahand (CP) chairperson Dhanin Chearavanont explains (Bangkok Post, Oct. 27) that the way forward is to cut rice production by a third!

'He suggested the government urge farmers to cut down their rice planting and grow other crops by offering a subsidy of 1,500 baht per rai. Supply would shrink and that should drive up prices'. 

One of the current weaknesses of the rice-pledging is government graft, surely that will not go away with this! Whatsmore, how do you stimulate farmers to not produce rice if data concerning farmers and farms is inadequate?

The same article also reveals that losses can never be as high as some claim as the newly appointed permanent secretary at the Finance Ministry is

 'experienced'. 

That he claims, despite not having seen the figures themself!

The remedy, IMF suggests, is to cut the rice subsidies and distribute the savings in other subsidies? So where does the public confidence erosion stop?

What is the reaction by the Thai government?  Take a hike! Predictable.
  

Bloomberg.com (Nov. 13):

'Thailand said that it will press on with a $21 billion rice-purchase program, spurning a call from the International Monetary Fund to end the loss-making intervention and telling the lender its approach is better'.

A potential idea. Even though rice pledge prices are above market prices, farmers should focus on niche markets. The Bangkok Post (Nov. 12) mentions

'experts' 

suggesting farmers to switch to rice seed production or to higher value rice varieties such as:

'Khao Leum Pua black glutinous rice and Rice Berry, two highly nutritious grains with strong demand'.

Price implications

With stocks increasing in thailand what are the implications for the wider global market?

Malaysian Insider (Oct. 30) notes that export prices for Thai riceare at a 3 year low ... Outlook is for prices to drop further ...

Bloomberg (Nov. 21) has another take on Thailands rice pledging. Not that revealing though. The stocking and non-selling is driving prices down, even though the Philippines may import more.

On the other hand, in a sign of changing market conditions, Thai rice exporters are also moving away from their grumpy stand (Bangkok Post, Nov. 25). Or is the simply no more way down ...?

Varia

Bangkok Post (Nov. 5) notices that the Philippines will have it's first genetically modified rice in 2-3 years. It weighs the pro's and con's but has little to add.

Arsenic and rice. A major news item (Nov. 19) in the past weeks has been a study in Bangladesh which links arsenic in groundwater with higher levels in rice.

'Even small amounts of arsenic, over a long time, can cause cancer of the bladder, kidney, lung or skin, previous research has found'. 

No real solutions other than diversifying palate. Might have some implications for bangladeshi exports. And Cambodia might well have similar problems.

Reeling in non-partizanship. Previously stated here, German official aid is teaming up with private funding from Bayer. signalling hybrid rice as avenue of the near future, opposition to the is wastage of public funds is increasing. CTA (Nov. 28):

'In fact, Oxfam and numerous other NGOs oppose the GFP in its entirety. It "threatens to turn small farmers into mere appendages of the business and agriculture models of agro-business", according to the Environment and Development Forum, a broad alliance including Oxfam, the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation, Brot für die Welt (Bread for the World) and the human rights organisation FIAN'.

Regional news

The Irrawaddy (Oct. 30) has a nice piece on Burma's emerging rice export industry:

'Domestic media reported last week that Burma’s export earnings have already slumped about US$100 million so far in this financial year because of weaker harvests caused by poor weather. But a bigger problem is an export market bloated with better-quality rice than Burmese growers can produce, said Samarendu Mohanty, an economist with the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)'.

Bloomberg (Nov. 27) also picks up on this story and mentions that Burma wants to export near to 5 million tonnes in a year or 5. There are quite a few problems ahead, but the Burmese are brimming with confidence. What might not help are prices dropping ...

Another country affected by the less than optimal export market for rice is of course Vietnam. Export projections have been revised downward so says Vietnam News (Nov. 11):

'The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) readjusted the rice export target for 2013 from 7.5 million tons to 6.7 million, reflecting four months of decreased exports.

...

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh told Vietnam News Agency that the country's low rice export turnover was due to competition from India and Pakistan in the African market.

The two countries' favorable geographical locations made their transport fees more competitive, while difficulties in payment and transport forced Vietnam's exporters to rely mostly on intermediaries, he said'. 

Strange as China is one of the biggest importers ...

On the other side like the Burmese there is another sign of hope for Thailand. Why? The sell-off in Vietnam has finished. Apparently nothing is left! Vietnam.news (Nov. 25): 

'“The rice volume in stock is modest, which may be not enough to fulfill the signed contracts. Meanwhile, the sale on the domestic market goes well,” Tuan [Le Thanh Tung, a senior official of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)]said.

“We fear that we may miss the opportunity to export rice to the Philippines, when the country needs more rice to relive the people in the typhoon stricken areas,” he added'.

Big news: The Nation (Nov. 22) reports that Cambodian jasmine rice has been awarded the accolade of world's best rice. For a second year running ...