Risky

The Guardian (Jul. 15) has an interesting article on what may lie ahead in terms of dealing with climate change directly. 
The study mentions does limit itself to maize, but one can imagine that if wheat would likewise become vulnerable, it could well have direct effect on rice / rice prices as rice will become a substitute crop:

'Governments may be seriously underestimating the risks of crop disasters occurring in major farming regions around the world, a study by British researchers has found.

...

The group found there is a 6% chance every decade that a simultaneous failure in maize production could occur in China and the US – the world’s main growers – which would result in widespread misery, particularly in Africa and south Asia, where maize is consumed directly as food.

...

Having studied the risks facing maize production, the group is now following up this work by studying climate impacts on the world’s other staple crops – in particular rice, wheat and soya beans – in order to assess how weather extremes could affect their production'.

Furthermore as most rice growing areas are grown in low lying  areas, indirectly higher rainfall and higher sea levels will affect rice output. A double whammy?

To confirm
A possible major breakthrough. Bangladesh may well be interested in Cambodian rice (Daily Star, Jul. 27), large scale. The only thing btw, counting in Cambodia's favour is it's lower price. The Khmer Times (Aug. 1) is pretty sure:

'Cambodia will reach an agreement with Bangladesh tomorrow for the kingdom’s rice to be exported to the South Asian country, according to an official in the Commerce Ministry.

“Under the deal, Bangladesh will import 1 million tonnes of milled rice from Cambodia for 5 years,” said Soeung Sophary, the ministry’s spokesperson yesterday'.

Other rice business news. The Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 12) reports on the exports obtained:

'Cambodian rice exports increased marginally during the first half of the year as export companies push to fulfil higher quotas destined for China.

Rice exports totalled 288,562 tonnes in the first six months of the year, an increase of 7.6 percent compared to the same time last year, according to the latest data published by the Secretariat of One Window Service for Rice Export Formality.

Exports to China accounted for 94,000 tonnes compared to France’s 37,000 tonnes and Poland’s 25,000 tonnes.

Despite the uptick in growth, Hean Vanhan, undersecretary of state at the Ministry of Agriculture, admitted that the figures showed a slow growth trend. He urged the private sector to increase capacity and secure more international orders to strengthen export potential'.

The China Daily (Jul. 8) chimes in but somehow is more upbeat:

'Cambodia exported 94,720 tons of milled rice to China in the first six months of 2017, up 101 percent compared to the same period last year, according to a government report on Friday'.

Elsewhere on the rice business front. The Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 12):

'Amru Rice, one of Cambodia’s largest rice exporters, signed a contract farming purchase agreement with 4,000 organic rice farmers in Preah Vihear province, reserving about $7 million to purchase nearly 20,000 tonnes of organic paddy during the upcoming harvest season, according to a press release yesterday'.

Then some sideline business. 
The Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 6) reports this curious note:

'The Preah Vihear Provincial Agriculture Department on Monday ordered its staff to help farmers by buying up invasive golden apple snails that are currently destroying their rice fields, according to the head of the department'.

While the Khmer Times (Jul. 3) shows how Sino-Cambodian rice business is dealt with:

'A feasibility study into the possibility of establishing a series of warehouses and kiln for rice farmers is exploring how to improve the quality of storage in the industry.

...

Mr Lak [vice president of Cambodia Rice Federation] could not confirm where the first warehouse and kiln will be located, but according to Jin Yu Hui, vice governor of Jilin province, Battambang is the priority area'.

Up
As is seen by the above the region has also been counting how much rice was exported in the first half of the year and simultaneously spinning some other rice news.

Vietnembreakingnews (Jul. 6) kicks off:

'Vietnam’s rice output during the winter-spring crop was estimated at 19.1 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percent, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development'.

Oddly the Bangkok Post (Jul. 6) reports on Vietnam:

'Vietnam has outlined plans to boost revenues from rice exports over the next decade by focusing on a higher quality product and selling more outside Asia.

The world's third-biggest rice producer wants to boost production of higher-quality 5% and 10% broken rice and decrease output of 15% broken rice, according to a paper published on the government's website.

...

Last year, the country's total rice exports fell by 27% to 4.8 million tonnes as it faced rising competition from Asian rivals, as well as policy changes in China and a fall in domestic production due to drought and high water salinity.

Exports rebounded 14% in the first half of this year to an estimated 2.96 million tonnes'.

Continuing with Vietnam, Vietnamnet (Jul. 9) reports which seems to disregard the above that already 4.8 million tonnes are being exported:

'Vietnam aims to export 4 million tonnes of rice in 2030 under a 2017-2020 rice export development strategy with a vision to 2030 recently approved by Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc'.

What am I missing?
Then the Bangkok Post (Aug. 2) reports on Thailand: 

'Thailand is likely to export 11 million tonnes of rice this year, higher than its target, Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said on Wednesday.

"Thailand is negotiating rice deals with many countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh," Ms Apiradi told reporters.
"This will help improve Thai rice prices and push our export volume up to 11 million tonnes," she said.
Thailand, the world's second-biggest rice exporter after India, set an export target of 10 million tonnes for 2017.
It has exported 6.3 million tonnes of rice so far this year, an increase of 16% from the same period last year'.

Hurts
Away from the data news, the region has more to note on rice growing and business in general.
The Vientiane Times (Aug. 1) realizes that dealing with China is not so easy:

'Rice exports from Laos to China have been affected by the high standard conditions formulated by Chinese authorities, according to a leading Lao rice producer.
...

A Chinese company ordered 7,200 tonnes of rice last year but the country was unable to supply this amount as the standard required by Chinese buyers is very high, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce reported'.

Agriculture.com (Jul. 6) blames lower prices on the Thai junta's policy of pushing foreign workers out:

'"Prices have gone down because the baht has weakened," a trader in Bangkok said. The mass exodus of migrant workers since June 23 following the introduction of new labour regulations by the Thai military government has also hit the Thai rice industry with labour shortages.
"The shortage of workers at warehouses and at the docks has led to delay in the loading of shipment and this has hurt exporters' confidence in their ability to fulfil shipments," said another Bangkok-based rice trader.
More than half of the labour force in the Thai rice industry are migrant workers from neighbouring Cambodia and about three quarters of this workforce have left the country, said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
The Thai government has since delayed parts of the new labour law, but many migrant workers have yet to return.
"Thai exporters hesitate to take new order because of the labour shortage and many potential international buyers are thinking twice about buying Thai rice because of this uncertainty," Chookiat said.
The labour shortage could raise the cost of production of Thai off-season crop, he said, which is expected to arrive from around August to September'.

Vietnamplus (Jul. 4) shares with us, news from Thailand:

'Thailand’s rice insurance scheme for this year’s first crop began on July 3 after it was approved by the cabinet last week.

The programme, worth 2 billion THB (around 58.84 million USD), will be run by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC).

It is expected to be applied on 25-30 million rai (40.000- 48.000 square kilometres) of rice farmland and cover insurance for natural disasters, including floods, droughts, storms, cold, hail and fires'.

Counter
While the Thai nation is waiting to be brought up to terms with what punishment the junta will implement on it's democratic predessor (for a popular free hand-out to all rice farmers), The Nation (Jul. 15) opens up about current practices in the rice business:

'Govt accused of rice sale irregularities 
MEMBERS of the Pheu Thai Party have asked the Auditor General to investigate the government’s programme of rice auctions dating to the 2014 coup, alleging irregularities that have caused losses to the state.

The party members led by Yuttapong Charasathein, a former deputy minister of agriculture and Cooperatives, yesterday filed a complaint with the Office of the Auditor General over the alleged irregularities.

Chief among their concerns is that rice fit for human consumption had been declared low grade, and was auctioned off for animal feed and industrial purposes. The sale of rice stocks classified in that category fetched lower prices and, the MPs claim, resulted in reduced government revenue.

...

Deputy director-general of the Foreign Trade Department, Keerati Rushchano, yesterday denied an allegation made by the Pheu Thai members that that the irregularities in the government’s rice auctions had caused losses of around Bt10 billion.

He said department did not approve a bid to pay Bt11.25 per kilogram for food-grade rice at one auction because the offer did not meet minimum price threshold set by the authorities. While authorities approved Bt 6.10 per kilogram in a later round auction because the bulk of that rice was not food grade.

...

Meanwhile, Somporn Isvilanonda, a rice expert and member of the committee examining rice quality, said that the Pheu Thai politicians might be trying to play political games with their complaint to the Auditor General. He assured that the rice auctions were transparent'.

Extraordinarily the Bangkok Post (Jul. 19) follows suit and tries to expand on the Nation:

'Even though the military government has vowed to push for reforms in a number of key areas, it seems to have overlooked a critical issue also in need of reform: The management of the state's rice stockpiles.

...

For decades, the Department of Foreign Trade, under the Commerce Ministry, annually called for bids for state rice stocks to unload pledged rice kept in government warehouses under the rice subsidy policy of previous governments.

Scandals have similarly arisen regarding the ministry's rice-bidding scheme almost every year. Rice auctions under this government are no exception. So what, exactly, is going on?

Taking a closer look at the political interests as well as established personal connections within the realm of rice trading helps shed light on the problem.

Rice is always a valuable political commodity frequently exploited by politicians as a tool to woo votes from farmers. Moreover, numerous politicians or their relatives are rice traders or exporters themselves.

While there are many players in the domestic rice trade, many of them are in fact from the same group. For example, several companies participating in the same state auctions for agricultural products have been found to be subsidiaries of the same major rice-exporting corporations.

In addition, some major rice traders have strong ties with political players. They have long developed close relationships with state officials, potentially influencing their decision-making process.

...

A recent controversy over "the unfair disqualification" of a bidder in the latest round of rice auctions, exposed to the media by former Democrat MP Watchara Petchthong, is telling.

TPK Ethanol Co, earlier filed a complaint with the Central Administrative Court accusing the Department of Foreign Trade of unfairly disqualifying its winning bid in a 525,000-tonne rice auction in April, even though it offered the highest price.

The court late last month issued an injunction order to suspend the Department of Foreign Trade's auctions for 2.7 million tonnes of inedible rice which was meant to go to the animal feed industry.

In a written response to the company, the department said that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, as the national rice policy committee chairman, and Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Gen Chatchai Sarikulya, as the deputy chairman, had approved the disqualification.

The department's director-general Duangporn Rodphaya said TPK Ethanol had been ruled out because one of its managers served as a director at two companies which had been found to have breached a contract with the department 20 years ago in a cassava price-pledging scheme.

...

In response, TPK Ethanol executives submitted a letter to the Supreme Administrative Court countering the department's appeal.

The company claims the department's move was discriminatory and applied a "double standard", saying there were three other companies which were not eligible for the auction but were allowed to take part in it anyway.

The first company is comprised of a group of rice traders who were also found to have breached an auction contract last year under a different business entity. The company's board of directors is the same as those of the previous entity, the letter said.

The second company, it alleges, was implicated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) for its involvement in a corruption case related to the government-to-government rice trading scheme implemented by the former government. One of the company's directors is even a suspect facing charges by the NACC, the letter said.

The third one is a rice company which had a dispute with the department over rice auctions but was allowed to join the auction after registering itself under a new company name, said TPK Ethanol.

...

Another allegation, raised by some Pheu Thai Party members, regarding the rice bidding management scheme under this government, is also awaiting a clear-cut response.

Pheu Thai Party members, led by Yuttapong Charasathein, former deputy agriculture and cooperatives minister, accused the military government of selling 2.14 million tonnes of fragrant rice as animal feed at a knockdown price.

Some traders proposed to buy rice from the government at 11.25 baht per kilogramme but their proposals were declined. But the state later sold the rice at 6.10 baht a kilogramme. This problem existed in 18 warehouses, they claim.

This practice has caused heavy losses in the government's rice stock disposals, while the buck has been passed to the last government, they said.

Although the department claims that the rice was sold at such a low price because its quality had deteriorated and was thus inedible, it has yet to provide the public with a satisfactory answer'.

Bangkok Post (Jul. 31) notes :

'Government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd has accused politicians and rice mill owners who are calling for a new inspection of rice stocks under the controversial rice-pledging scheme of being part of a politically-motivated movement. 

...

Previously, the owners of eight rice warehouses had called on the government to conduct a new round of quality checks on rice under the scheme, saying they weren't confident in the results of past

inspections conducted by officials. According to warehouse owners, normal rice was auctioned along with rice used for producing animal feed, which is a waste of money. They claimed they weren't aware of the government's intention to sell the rice as ingredients in animal feed until the days on which the auctions were held. They added their move should help prevent further losses that could be worth several billion baht'.

After this come a couple of examples and legal arguments'.

So even if convicted, it seems that there will be no end to popularizing and using rice as a stick with which to hit political opponents. Why I beg, should the government be meddling not only in setting prices but in trade as well?

Fairness
Back to Cambodia, where prices of corn have lead to protests. The Cambodia Daily (Jul. 17):

'After about 500 protesting farmers blockaded a national road in Battambang province last week, local authorities in neighboring districts are now making efforts to placate hundreds of other farmers also restless over depressed corn and cassava prices.

In Banteay Meanchey province’s O’Chrou district, district governor San Sien Ho said yesterday that he had been pre-empting possible protest by visiting local families and asking for patience, though he admitted there was little authorities could do.

...

On Thursday, corn farmers in Battambang’s Kamrieng district blocked National Road 57B for more than eight hours and called on the government to find a solution to their plight. The following day, farmers and local officials met for six hours, and tycoon Phou Puy offered to buy their corn and dry it himself. Farmers, however, said the offered price of 3.4 baht, or about $0.10, per kilogram wasn’t enough'.

Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 17) reports on the same:

'Farmers in two Battambang districts shut down major roads over the weekend, in protest of low corn prices, according to local officials.

Song Sopheak, Phnom Proek district police chief, said that around 100 families blocked the roads in his district on Saturday for more than two hours. Sopheak said the villagers drove tractors onto national roads 59B and 57, demanding authorities help negotiate a better price.

“They said this year the corn price is down, so they want the authority to help them negotiate with the broker. They said this year the broker only gives them 3.1 baht [around $0.09] per kilo of corn. So now the villagers want 3.4 baht, and the dealers agreed to buy with this price,” Sopheak said, adding that last year corn was sold for 4 baht per kilo.

Kim Ponlork, Sopheak’s counterpart in Kamrieng district, said around 100 villagers protested in his jurisdiction on Friday as well'.

Then the solution. The Cambodia Daily (Jul. 19):

'Following corn farmers’ protests over low prices last week, the Rural Development Bank has proposed using a government rice subsidy to purchase corn and shore up demand.

...

Yesterday, Kao Thach, the RDB’s chairman, said the bank’s board had met earlier in the day to discuss the proposal for corn, and it was now sending it to the Finance Ministry for approval. Last week, about 500 farmers in Battambang province’s Kamrieng district blocked a national road to protest low prices, and authorities met with corn traders hoping to negotiate better deals. The traders refused to budge, however, from the originally agreed price of 3.5 baht per kg, or about $0.10.

...

Many crops in Cambodia are produced for export to only a few markets, mainly Thailand or Vietnam, limiting farmers’ options when buyers’ demand flags, he said.

“They only come to buy from us when they don’t produce enough for their use,” Mr. Ngeth added. The issue was exacerbated by Cambodian farmers overproducing crops that did well the previous year, leading to an oversupply, he said. Un Sreyoun, a 40-year-old corn farmer from Kamrieng district, said she hoped for more local buyers to drive up corn prices.

“If more Cambodian traders came, Thai dealers would not dare to lower the price,” Ms. Sreyoun said.

But Mong Reththy, chairman of agro-industrial conglomerate Mong Reththy Group, said his company had bought 1,000 tons of corn from Battambang almost every day this year for his livestock feed factory, and argued that current prices were fair.

“The price [offered] is already good enough for the farmers. Good deal, indeed,” Mr. Reththy said'.

Spirited
Other non rice news.

The Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 27):

'In an agreement mediated by the International Finance Corporation’s watchdog mechanism, a controversial Vietnamese rubber firm has reached a deal with 11 ethnic minority villages affected by its Ratanakkiri operations to return nearly 20 community “spirit mountains”, restore streams filled or polluted by its activities and repair roads and bridges'.

One needs to note that those companies not with a World Bank interest, can cheat landowners fair and square, no worries.
Rubber is actually on the up. The Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 20):

'Cambodian rubber exports surged 37 percent during the first half of the year, compared to the same period in 2016, as the Kingdom’s rising harvest capacity coincided with firmer global demand for rubber products.

Local producers exported 70,000 tonnes of rubber during the first six months of 2017, compared to 51,000 tonnes during the same period a year earlier, an agriculture official said yesterday.

Pol Sopha, general director of the Rubber Department at the Ministry of Agriculture, said prices also improved during the first six months of the year, with the median export price on natural rubber rising 76 percent year-on-year to $1,771 per tonne. He said the improved prices should help plantation owners and farmers offset some of their losses from recent years, when prices nosedived on slower demand and a glut in world supply'.

An interesting article from the Phnom Penh Post (Jul. 6) on the pepper business:

'Cambodia rice mogul Song Saran, the CEO of one of the Kingdom’s top rice exporters, will diversify his agricultural business interests with the construction of a factory to clean and process locally grown pepper, he said yesterday.

The new factory is being built on 3,000 square metres of land in Memot district of Tbong Khmum province, which accounts for over 70 percent of Cambodia’s pepper harvest.

Its pepper cleaning and processing line is scheduled to open next month and reach its full capacity of 15 tonnes per day by January.

Saran, CEO of Amru Rice and three other sister companies engaged in rice production and export, said the new $400,000 factory is an investment by Amret Rungroeung Group Ltd, a trading firm he established in 2009.

...

He said the company would initially focus on processing black pepper, but it could eventually add separate production lines for other spices, such as ginger and turmeric.

“We’ll focus on black pepper first as we’ve seen the pepper industry grow very rapidly and we cannot depend only on Thailand and Vietnam as buyers,” he said. “We need to build up our own market and connect to the world.”

According to Saran, this will be only the second processing factory to set up in the pepper-growing region. Buyers in the EU and Dubai have already agreed to purchase shipments of 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes per year, he added'.

It's questionable whether or not Cambodia needs to scale up it's pepper business. But it seems inevitable.

Payback
Other crops, other problems. 
The Bangkok Post (Jul. 25) reports on the continuing saga of sugar:

'Sugar prices will be closely monitored despite the government's commitment to the World Trade Organization to free up the production and trading system of the commodity by December, says the Ministry of Commerce. 

Permanent secretary Wiboonlasana Ruamraksa said sugar is on the ministry's control list -- goods whose retail prices are not allowed to be increased -- and is expected to remain so after Dec 1 when the government is due to liberalise the sugar system'.

Bangkok Post (Jul. 10) is less enthusiastic on rubber:

'Discontent among southern rubber farmers against the government has grown even as the government explained it has done its best to ease their woes stemming from plummeting rubber prices.

Government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd said on Monday it was imperative that farmers understand world rubber prices were dictated by economic factors such as interest rates and oil prices. In the first five months of this year, exports of natural rubber jumped 63.6% to $2.8 billion. Rubber product exports such as tyres and gloves also surged 59% to $4 billion and the momentum continues, he said.

But southern farmers are taking issue with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who said last week 3 million rai of forests had been encroached to grow rubber trees, resulting in a glut'.

Vientiane Times (Jun. 27) has an insight on how coffee trade is undertaken:

'Dao-Heuang Group will seek to repay the money it owes the country’s coffee farmers as soon as possible after the company fell several months behind in payments for the raw beans. 

The company now owes farmers a total of 27 billion kip after it paid off significant debts according to the Champassak provincial Industry and Commerce Department.

...

The remaining 27 billion kip is owed to almost 2,000 farming families, he said.

Dao-Heuang Group is the largest coffee buyer in Laos, leaving many coffee growers with few alternatives to sell their product as demand from other companies remains limited. The company has confirmed that it will pay all money to farmers but not the timescale.

Coffee remains a key commercial export crop in Laos, and the nation’s product continues to be popular among people from home and abroad while increasingly well-accepted in the international market. The challenges for the industry carry on as the world price for coffee has dropped significantly over the past few months.

According to the Lao Coffee Association, robusta beans are down from US$2,100 in March to US$2,014 this month. 

Falls have been even more spectacular for the higher grade Arabica, which was selling at US$ 3,100 in March before falling to US$2,500 a tonne this month.

The value of coffee exports through the Lao Coffee Association has reached 21,000 tonnes worth more than US$50 million.

This figure is expected to increase in terms of volume and value for the current year'.