Lead or the lead?

As usual we could lead this update with the newest on the Thai rice pledge scheme, loads of info to be had on this. But we're not.

Instead let's look at what would have been an unknown study on lead levels in rice. If not for what?

A popular way to scare away the foreign competition (from the US of A) is to label them unsafe.  The tool: studies into consumption rice lead levels. It revealed that  foreign rice has lead levels in excess of standards set by the US-FDA (but has no reference on domestic rice):

'New research has revealed that samples of imported rice sold in the retail markets in the U.S. contain levels of lead that are higher than permissible levels, according to a report by the BBC.

The study was conducted by Dr. Tsanangurayi Tongesayi of Monmouth University in New Jersey, US, and his team. The study found that lead levels in some samples exceeded the "provisional total tolerable intake" (PTTI) set by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by a factor of 120. High levels of lead can affect the kidney, brain and other parts of the human body.

Rice from Bhutan, Italy, China, Taiwan, India, Israel, the Czech Republic and Thailand were used in the tests, and almost the samples had high levels of lead. "When we compared them, we realized that the daily exposure levels are much higher than those PTTIs," said Dr. Tongesayi. "According to the FDA, they have to be more than 10 times the PTTI levels (to cause a health concern), and our values were two to 12 times higher than those 10 times," he told BBC News. Tests on imported rice from other countries are in the process'.

The  above was reported from Oryzae.com (Apr. 11). Further scaremongering: 

'According to the research, rice from China and Taiwan had the highest lead levels. One of the reasons why rice samples contained high lead levels is the fact that some countries use raw sewage effluent and untreated industrial effluent to irrigate rice fields, said Dr. Tongesayi. He added that there is a need for international regulations over production and distribution of food grains'.

But why are there high levels of lead in rice from Thailand? Or from Bhutan? 

The BBC then adds:

'Update 24 April 2013: This story has been amended to emphasise the preliminary nature of the results, which are under review both by the authors and the journal to which they were submitted for publication'.

And from Natural News (Apr. 21): 

'A recent scientific paper that concluded imported rice was heavily contaminated with lead has been suddenly withdrawn by its author. Natural News has confirmed from the author, Monmouth University Chemistry Professor Tsanangurayi Tongesayi, that the paper is "recalled until further notice."

...

Here's another clue worth considering in all this. In 2012, Consumer Reports published results of its lead analysis of 223 brands of rice. They also measured arsenic and cadmium in rice.
If you click the link above, the chart you'll see is shown in parts per BILLION. These numbers, in other words, are 1/1000th the value of numbers given in parts per million. As a reminder, 1000 ppb = 1 ppm.
If someone asks you, "Would you rather each 500 ppm of lead, or 500 ppb of lead?" the correct answer is ppb.
The Tongesayi team was announcing that it found rice to contain high ppm of lead. But the Consumer Reports team -- which of course has decades of experience running tightly-controlled lab analysis activities -- was only reporting lead at ppb in rice.
Somebody is off by a factor of 1,000. That's three orders of magnitude. And I'd bet my favorite pair of hiking boots it's not Consumer Reports'.

! 

IRRI wakes up (May 3): 

'“The most important issue for me at this point is to make sure the data is accurate,” Dr. Tongesayi said. “If it is not accurate we will obviously not publish the paper.”'

Too late?

Cambodia + rice

Cambodian rice exports are on the upswing. Oryza.com mentions (May 2) figures of +130% for the first 4 months! 

It also notes that Thailand is one of the principal destinations ...

Another destination is the Philippines according to Cambodia Daily (Apr. 8):

'Commerce Minister Cham Prasidh has signed a rice deal with the Philippines, as Cambodia tries to find new markets for its increasing supplies of domestically milled rice'.

The Cambodian Daily (Apr. 18)  reports on energy from biomass from rice:

'A U.S.-based energy company has announced that it is planning a biomass project using genetically modified rice in Cambodia, in a purportedly massive deal about which little information has been made public'. 

Particularly the section on GM rice seems interesting: 

'According to the statement, Sino Bioenergy’s “super rice” seeds, which are produced in laboratories, “are disease resistant, high yielding genetically improved rice with the transgenic rice grain length increased by 25% over normal rice.”'. 

Oddly it points to the company's own seeds, though on it's website they don't mention rice seed as one of their activities. Are they going to be duped ...? 

Oh and the Cambodian Daily adds: 

'The company’s [Sino Bioenergy] listed phone number in Hong Kong connected to a person who declined to give her name, but said, “Sino Bioenergy is using our registered address. This is not their office.”'

!

Another company involved are Sky Energy. 

'To enhance Cambodian rice yields, the government should encourage private development of rice-seed production and focus its efforts on farmers’ education and regulations that ensure the quality of seed, industry experts say'. 

So reads an article by the Phnom Penh Post (Apr. 25). Oddly, private sector investment and rice seed are not a natural symbiosis globally and Cambodia is not different. There's simply not enough financial reward for the hard work of breeding. So why this call?  The article isn't clear. It does note:

'After a number of attempts, MAFF declined to comment.' 

Yawn.

Setting standards for rice: 

'Building an industry based on a uniquely Cambodian standard will give rice producers a clear target to work towards and instil confidence in buyers, said a panel of both government and private sector representatives at a rice quality workshop in Phnom Penh on Tuesday'.  

Source: Phnom Penh Post (May 2)

The Asiafoundation.org reports (May 1) on Cambodia's potential:

'If Cambodia’s rice export sector were to reach its full potential, it could produce 3 million tons of milled rice, with the total export value amounting to $2.1 billion (approximately 20% of the GDP) and an estimated additional $600 million (approximately 5% of the GDP) to the national economy. It would also boost employment and income for agricultural farmers who make up more than 70 percent of the population living in rural areas'.

It also knows where the problem lies:

'Most Cambodian farmers cultivate paddy rice once per year during the rainy season, while farmers in Vietnam’s delta region cultivate 3.5 times annually. Such low productivity is mainly a result of high energy prices and poor transportation infrastructure'.

Well, it forgets the value of irrigation, even during strict Communist times with little or no energy at all, the Mekong delta still could produce more than 1 crop a year. The two sources mention are only impediments in achieving global competitiveness.

The guru of SRI (System of Rice Intensification), Norm Uphoff, visits his favourite son, Cambodia (Cornell News, May 2): 

'In his remarks at the conference, the minister [ Cambodia's minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries] reported that use of SRI methods in Cambodia has expanded from small trials done by 28 farmers in 2000 to more than 200,000 farmers. Yields are 50 to 100 percent higher for paddies using SRI, and those yields are achieved with lower production costs. As a result, he said, farmer incomes from rice production can be doubled or more with SRI'.

Thailand is facing a crunch in supplying the world with maize and cassave. So now all of a sudden the Thai's are doing their best to open the borders for this produce (Phnom Penh post, Apr 23): 

'In order to boost the Kingdom’s trade performance and improve the quality of lives of farmers along the Thai-Cambodia border, Thailand has agreed to remove import restrictions on Cambodian cassava and maize'. 

Expect restrictions to be re-imposed once the export markets of Thai turn.

Woeful

An editorial from the Bangkok Post (Apr. 4) asks the government to admit defeat

'Come clean [on rice pledging]

Finally, the government has agreed to accept the hard truth that it can no longer buy every grain of paddy from rice farmers as promised when it launched the populist rice pledging scheme two years ago'.

The Thai government are hopeful (The Nation, Apr. 6) of offloading 6-7 million tons of rice this year:

'As the government is able to continue to release rice from the stockpiles, he said, the country should be able to get some return the total outlay of Bt410 billion during two years of the pledging programme'.

But, says the Bangkok Post (Apr. 7), exporters are in the camp of the non-believers: 

'Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), said it remains difficult to assess whether the government could sell its rice stocks, as it has yet to call an auction for exporters'.

If all fails, exporters have a solution (The Nation, Apr. 9): 

'A source from a giant rice-export company said the government should release its older stockpiles for use in feed-meal production, to make way for new-harvest rice that will need to enter the warehouses.
"The government needs to clear its rice stocks urgently, in particular rice from previous harvests since 2005 because it is deteriorating in quality. These rice stocks could be used for supplying feed-meal producers," said the source'. 

Blasphemy? Why not name the source ...? 

Bloomberg has a good article (Apr. 18) on the rice-pledge saga. Note: 

'Rather than sell the rice on the open market—and risk embarrassment as private dealers see the haircut the government is taking—Thailand is trying government-to-government deals that allow buyer and seller to keep prices secret.

...

The Thais are selling into a soft market. “There is just no demand for this rice,” says Jac Luyendijk, CEO of SAT Swiss Agri-Trading. “You have to dump it.” Swiss Agri-Trading now buys about 30,000 tons of Thai rice, down from about 200,000 tons before 2011'.

Separately Bloomberg (Apr. 20) sums up the pro's of the scheme and estimates the costs: 

'Given the extra income for farmers, which is also helping to increase consumption in many rural areas, the government is unlikely to completely abandon the scheme despite the cost, but the rice pledging scheme is seeming to be like a snowball. At the beginning, the problem doesn’t look so big. An extra 45 billion billion for such increased income is something that the government would be prepared to take a hit on. However, unless there is a change in the international market, exports are likely to decline again, production to increase (and thus increased costs), and more rice stockpiles. If costs are 140 billion for October 2012-September 2013, what will they be for the following year'

The loss has just increased, as the price has just eased  ...

Adding to Thai woes are the price of the bhat whereas if you want to sell on the international market the price is in $ US. So with the bhat increasing one can blame failure on the international finance. Bangkok Post (May 1): 

'Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom has blamed the soaring baht for hampering government-to-government (G-to-G) rice export deals'.

And even more. Bangkok Post, May 3: 

'The Thai baht's rally to the highest level in 16 years is hindering exports from the world's biggest rice shipper, curbing the government's efforts to diminish record state stockpiles and threatening to increase its losses.

...

"Any success in offloading stocks will result in heavy losses for the government," said Darren Cooper, a senior economist at the London-based International Grains Council, which monitors global markets and promotes food security. "So the baht strength will merely add to what are likely to be very hefty losses."'

A plus:

'Higher rice reserves in Thailand may help increase global inventories to a record 173 million tonnes, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation, which forecasts that world production will exceed demand for an eighth year'.

Outmarketed?

More foreign misunderstandings? The Nation (Apr. 17) reports that China based importers are mixing the expensive Thai rice with that of cheaper (and lower ?) grades. Consumer protection is still in it's infancy in China so don't expect the government to step in.

'"Although Thai jasmine rice is highly favoured by Chinese consumers, its too-high price during the past few years has encouraged traders to mix it with other grains. This is to ensure that we [traders] get some profit from rice selling because, if the price is too expensive, traders will get a lower return," he [Shua Hong Bing, a rice wholesaler and retailer operating in Beijing and Shantou] said. Consumers prefer to buy cheaper rice even though they know the grains have been mixed, because the price of pure jasmine rice is too high for them when it comes to their daily staple, he added.

...

The combination ratio is generally 8:2 or 7:3, with the Thai jasmine rice blended with smaller amounts of cheaper grain.

...

Fang Yi Ming, a 73-year-old housewife, said her family had always favoured Thai jasmine rice since she was very young. However, with the rocketing price of Thai rice, she has had to adjust and now consumes mixed rice.
"I can hardly find pure 100-per-cent jasmine rice in the shops, as most of it has been mixed. Even in restaurants, they have turned to cooking mixed rice or using Vietnamese rice because it is cheaper while having a similar taste to Thai jasmine rice," she said'.

Ms Ming seems to possess more economic sense than the whole Thai government!  

Not only are Chinese consumers turning their backs on expensive jasmine rice, the Bangkok Post (Apr. 17) notes that farmers in the Isaan are changing the varieties they grow. With the for farmers profitable rice pledging, farmers are now looking at fast ways to cash in: shorter duration varieties with high yields.

Brooding

Research on economic returns of hybrid rice in U.S.A. points to economics on hybrid cultivation being sound: 

'Researchers Lawton Lanier Nalley, an associate professor of agricultural economics at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, and his research assistant Nathaniel Lyman concluded that hybrid rice cultivars are found to have significant yield advantages over the best-performing conventional alternative'.

This could well be the case in high management input systems with good information available and consumer ignorance ... 

However for Asia this is often not the case, management is poor, plot sizes small, inefficiencies elsewhere and at the end consumer preference lies elsewhere .. 

The American researchers conclude that hybrid rice growing has better economic returns in the state of Arkansas (Agro Professional, Apr. 19). That's if the price is not discounted .... Which it is.

GM rice / hybrid rice, still not enough rice is being produced according to agenda's for futurologists. Yuan Longping (of hybrid rice fame) will now have to search for super rice (China Daily, Apr 9): 

'China will launch a special scientific research project to develop a new super rice strain, expected to produce a bumper harvest of 14.9 metric tons a hectare, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu said on Tuesday'.

Elsewhere Mr Longping has been promoting waterfalls of rice (Globalpost.com, Apr. 15) : 

'Ping likened these grains into cascades of water that stream toward a bounty, have potential yield of 13.5 tons per hectare'. 

Lots of flowery text to mask the hybrid source. The underlying thought is that science and technology will save us from oblivion. Not economical sense. Nor consumer power.

An odd article from Pakistan's Nation (Apr. 22): 

'Public sector institutes like Rice Research Institutes of Kala Shah Kaku and Dokri have failed to develop new successful and popular hybrid rice varieties during the last several decades of their existence.
As a result the basmati export is decreasing day by day'.  

But is this the case? 

'Experts said that massive electricity loadshedding and gas management has hit its business like never before. As per estimates, power loadshedding has reduced the milling capacity by 50 per cent. Gas management has been exceptionally delayed drying process. Both of them have very badly affected the entire chain — drying, husking and milling — up to 50 per cent, making it hard for them to meet export orders even when they have them.
Two other factors are high domestic prices and loss of Iranian market, which was the biggest for Pakistani rice.' 

Economics thus. Note that hybrids will do nothing to help exports ...

Competition

Myanmar's rise to prosperity through rice production. Assisted by Japan. Japandailypress (Apr. 15): 

'Japan is helping to boost Myanmar’s quest to regain its status as a top rice exporter by importing long-grain rice from the former military ruled Southeast Asian country for the first time in 45 years. Even more importantly, companies like Mitsui are investing in rice production to ensure the longevity of the industry. Myanmar Rice Industry Association Chairman Chit Khaing said that Japan is very enthusiastic about investing in the country’s rice industry'.

Vietnam is considering (Vientamnet, Apr. 18) more investment in plants which can produce parboiled rice, an interesting niche?

And more

IRRI's Bas Bouman has more (Apr. 30). A plead to follow in the steps of the EU?

'So, why did I dwell so much on this Mansholt Plan? Well, despite its controversial aspects and despite the differences in location and times, I see some striking similarities between a number of conditions besetting European farmers then and those besetting rice farmers in Asia today. Asia has about 120 million rice farms with average sizes of mostly 1 to 2 hectares only. Returns to rice cropping are low, with values of US$200–600/ha/season being most common. So, even with a farm size of 2 ha and two rice crops a year, income from rice farming is only $800–2,400/year. So, how can any family live off the income from rice farming? The fact is, they don’t, and most farming families have additional off-farm income. In recent years, labor migration from rural to urban areas has accelerated tremendously in many rice-growing areas of Asia. Since it’s usually the able-bodied young men who migrate, the remaining farming population is aging and “feminizing.” Already, women contribute at least half of the total labor inputs in rice production, and now they increasingly have to take on decision-making and management roles as well as doing tasks that were traditionally men’s work (e.g., land preparation, spraying of chemicals, and fertilizer application). Despite this labor outmigration over the last decades, farm size has kept on decreasing and the number of farms increasing. So, just as in the 1960s in Europe, we have to wonder about the future of farming in Asia—and then specifically in the rice sector. With so few prospects of earning a decent income, who will produce our rice in the (near) future?'

So female lead agriculture is not good? And small is not beautiful? 
Well, look at what Mansholt plan produced: huge reserves of untradable commodities. A bit like the Thai rice pledge scheme. 
Mechanization comes through changes in labor (opportunity) returns, not through government plans. Bigger farms through economic processes.

IRRI's Samarendu Mohanty has a good overview (Apr. 11) of the situation of rice prices in the near future. Three factors to account for. China's domestic price policies, Thai government willing to sell below price and the monsoon.

Going, going ...

As South-east Asia heats up, so does the discussion concerning Thailand's rice pledge scheme. More and more the near bankrupt scheme looms above the market and will ultimately decide the fate of the rice price in the next few years and thus the direction in which rice growing will move. Lower prices will force investors out and dissuade farmers from pursuing higher efficiency.

Meddling?

So where are we now?

International scrutiny is increasing. Case 1: 

Chicago Tribune (Mar. 27) takes time to look at Thailand's rice pledging scheme:

'Thailand is set to sell half-a-million tonnes of rice on world markets at a loss, as it scrambles to offload a record stockpile deteriorating in quality in warehouses filled with grain bought under a government scheme.

The two-year old policy to pay farmers more for rice than it is worth on international markets is straining the country's finances, has cost Thailand its spot as world's top exporter and provoked concern at the World Trade Organization.

While officials publicly deny the politically sensitive scheme is in crisis, the government is looking at measures to stem ballooning losses so far estimated at $6 billion

...

That leaves the government in a bind: it is committed to buying yet more rice, which it has no room to store and which it is unable to sell without suffering a huge loss'.

The New York Times follows (Mar. 28): 

'Thailand is set to sell 500,000 metric tons of rice on world markets at a loss as it scrambles to offload a record stockpile deteriorating in warehouses filled with grain bought under a government program'.

Both above articles resemble each other and come after Thailand was issued a warning by the WTO and it's cronies. Also the World Bank mentions the possible future negatives on rice prices in it's update on grain prices. Despite the stocks hovering above the market, the Bangkok Post (Mar. 28) notes that prices have nudged upwards slightly in the past months (Source: World Bank). The article that speculates on whether Thailand may off-load and what that would do to the price, which is not following prices of other grains.

More of the same
More bad news for sellers in general. Bangkok Post (Mar. 26) has an article on the positive growing conditions experienced in India: more supply into an already poor market. 

'Rice exports from India, the world's second-largest producer, are poised to set a record for the second year with the harvest expected to rebound on normal monsoon rain, potentially widening a global surplus.

Shipments will climb 5% to 10.5 million metric tonnes in the year beginning April, according to the median of estimates from six exporters, a government official and an industry executive compiled by Bloomberg.

Output may jump to an all-time high of 110 million tonnes in the season beginning July, according to Vijay Setia, a former president of the All India Rice Exporters Association.

Surging exports from India may add to global food supplies as farmers from Vietnam to China are preparing to plant a record rice crop. Stockpiles in Thailand have surged to an all-time high as the government buys supplies from farmers, while exports from Myanmar and Cambodia have expanded. The glut may further curb world food costs which tumbled for five straight months through February'. 

With the exception of rice.

Sydney Morning Herald (Mar. 27) also notes the Indian expectations:

'Rice exports from India, the world's second-largest grower, are poised to reach a record for a second year as the harvest may rebound on normal monsoon rain, potentially widening a global surplus.

Shipments will climb 5 per cent to 10.5 million tonnes in the year beginning April, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg'.

Bangladesh will help Thailand off-load 1 million tonnes (Bangkok Post, Mar. 29). Looks like a lot, but it is spread over 4 years ...

Despite the misgivings the immediate future of the scheme has been spelt out.

The Sunday is the day for decisions, according to a newsreport by the Bangkok Post (Mar. 30):

'The proposal will be tabled at Sunday's mobile cabinet meeting in Chachoengsao.

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the budget for the pledging scheme for the off-season crop is about 74.2 billion baht, raising the total expenditure for the pledging scheme in the 2012-2013 crop year to 224.2 billion baht.

The government has maintained the pledging price at 15,000 baht maximum per tonne.

According to Mr Kittiratt, the second crop would produce nine million tonnes but only seven million was expected to be consigned under the rice-pledging scheme.

Mr Kittiratt said the National Rice Committee has added a condition to ensure high quality rice.

He said the proposal is in line with the cabinet's earlier decision allowing the ministry to grant credit guarantees to the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to finance the price subsidy scheme.

He said the expenditure is covered by the government's 410 billion baht framework for rice pledging approved in 2011'.

And then the surprise on Sunday (not). The Thai government has formally approved the purchase of more stock.The Nation (1 Apr):

'The mobile Cabinet yesterday approved the rice pledging scheme for the 2012/2013 fiscal year, worth Bt105 billion in total, proposed by the Commerce Ministry.

Under the scheme, about seven million tonnes of rice will be bought from farmers, down from 9.2 million tonnes previously anticipated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, as yields have been hit by drought in some areas'.

One world, one price?

Confused by the different prices? So am I. If Thailand isn't the leading exporter anymore why use an index based on their export prices?

Oryza.com (Mar. 21) tries an alternative, the Oryza White Rice Index (WRI) : 'The index represents the weighted average of white long grain rice fob export quotes from markets across the globe

...

Oryza’s price quote assessments are based on real market quotes and the Oryza WRI reflects what Oryza believes to be a true and accurate aggregate reflection of rice market prices.   Rice prices are traditionally very hard to source and compare due to the complexity of the rice industry – the numerous types of rice, processing methods, varieties, grades, and origins'.

What do we learn? Prices are nudging forwards ...:

Domestic affairs (or not)

Malaysia openly solicits (Phnom Penh Post, Mar. 29) Cambodian agriculture: 

'Malaysia-BASED agricult-ural and commodities company Felda Global Ventures Holdings is considering investing in palm oil, sugar and rubber crops in Cambodia'.

The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 26) reports on pinning future hopes on rubber:

'Cambodian officials say they will focus on nine different sectors in a bid to diversify and ensure continued national economic growth.

Among the nine priorities, rubber will play a crucial role in Cambodia’s trade integration strategy.

...

Though the Cambodian economy is still largely dependent on the garment sector, officials say they hope agricultural production can also boost the economy.

“Besides the garment sector, the next priority among the nine is rubber, followed by cassava, which also plays an important role in poverty reduction,” he [Minister of Commerce Cham Prasidh] explained'. 

Alas, the future of rubber is much dependent on the success of recent plantings. With economic doldrums in most of the world, it's dependent on the demand and in this case with the peace talks in South Thailand ...

Other ways of earning money. Cambodia has zero tariffs export to Europe, so Thailand assumes that they will be doing a favour for Cambodia by buying their produce and reselling it to Europe. Oryza.com (Mar. 23): 

'The Deputy DG also said that re-export of Cambodia rice may help Thailand boost its competitiveness in the EU and other markets, and also reduce smuggling of rice from Cambodia into the Thai rice mortgage program. Thailand may begin the project with around 100 to 1,000 tons of rice from Cambodia, he added'.

Official reaction as recorded by the Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 26): 

'Kong Putheara, director of the Ministry of Commerce statistics department, said he welcomes the plans of the new Thai strategy to potentially buy paddy from Cambodia, saying that most of the problems of the Cambodian agricultural sector stem from markets, rather than production'.

Though not directly related to the Thai plans to market Cambodian rice to  Europe a Thai co-operative delegation came to visit Phnom Penh (Phnom Penh Post, Mar. 27). Asked about exactly those plans we hear this:

'Hun Lak, general director of milled-rice trading company Mekong Oryza, told the Post he foresees that the open markets would translate to higher demand, which will eventually benefit farmers.

“In my opinion, more demand will make the price higher and gives farmers and incentive to increase their productivity for more profit,” he said'. 

Most produce already disappears across the border following higher prices and better post-harvest  ... 

Oh, and the company mentioned has nothing to do with the Thai co-op ...

Do note the company's website has alot of up to date info on rice trading related issues.

Gamble
Bayer's gamble with rice seed continues. Gmanetwork reports (Mar. 24) that 

'Bayer CropScience Inc. (Philippines) will invest P40 million this year to expand the production capacity of its hybrid rice seeds station in Calauan, Laguna'.

You do research and find out that a pineapple canning company isn't completely upfront with following the labour laws. You publish and then the company sues you. Well in Thailand that is. Bangkok Post (Apr. 2):

'He [vice president of canned-pineapple and juice-concentrate producer Natural Fruit] called on Hall [a former researcher at Mahidol University] to show up and fight the case to prove his innocence, adding that Natural Fruit is ready to negotiate.
"If you are really innocent, then face the judicial process and things will be over. If you want to negotiate, do contact us," he said.
Kachin, meanwhile, acknowledged that the latest statement could negatively affect the company, which is Thailand's 12th- or 13th-largest tinned-pineapple exporter.
He refused to speculate why Hall had made such serious allegations against the company'.

Fancy

China a compass nation? Well, read this (China Post, Mar. 8): 

'China has delayed the introduction of genetically modified rice and corn as it tries to head off public fears, leading government scientists said on Thursday.'

Caving in to public demand? Fancy that. Oh, do note this is a Taiwanese publication ...

Rice pledge price

Will the pledge price drop? Bangkok Post (Feb. 28): 

'The Ministry of Commerce will propose to the National Rice Policy Committee that the pledging price of non-glutinous unmilled rice be lowered, permanent secretary Watcharee Wimuktayon said.

The rice panel, chaired by Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom, is scheduled to meet on Friday, March 1.

Mrs Watcharee said her ministry will propose three price levels for non-glutinous paddy to the committee for consideration - the same 15,000 baht per tonne, 14,000 baht and 13,000 baht per tonne'. 

So the ministry is so wise they can't even come up with 1 recommendation? More government logic: 

'If the pledging price of the paddy is lowered, rice exporters would be able to export more and foreign exchange revenue would rise and the rice industry would expand, while farmers would not be affected, she said'. 

If the pledge price drops, farmers will not be affected? 

On the same proposal the Nation clarifies: 

'Vatchari [same as Watcharee above] said farmers should be able to accept the price change because the government will continue to support them and help with reducing the costs of production.
Although the price pledging is the result of the government's policy, it could be adjusted if it will create a better outcome for the rice industry, Vatchari said. Farmers should not suffer from lower incomes as most have relieved themselves of debts during the past two years of high prices, she added'. 

No proof though ...

The response of farmers: predictable? Bangkok Post (Mar. 1): 

'The Commerce Ministry's proposal to slash the rice pledging price has infuriated paddy farmers, who are threatening to hold a mass rally if it goes ahead.

Kittisak Ratanawaraha, head of a network of rice growers in 17 northern provinces, said any move by the government to go back on its promise to pay 15,000 baht for each tonne of pledged rice would be completely unacceptable'.

It also notes

'Mr Kittisak said farmers rarely receive the full 15,000-baht rate under the present rice pledging scheme, because moisture and contamination are often cited as excuses to cut the price.

Even with the best rice, farmers are often paid only up to 11,000 baht a tonne.

The government has delayed payments for four months, forcing farmers to depend on loan sharks who charge interest rates of 20% a month.

He said if the government cut the pledging price to 13,000 baht a tonne, farmers could end up being paid only 8,000-9,000 baht a tonne.

The Phichit farmer said the pledging scheme was ripe for abuse and does not really benefit farmers.

"If the government wants to really help farmers, it should freeze the prices of fertilisers and farm chemicals, cut interest rates for us and end the delays in payments for pledged rice," Mr Kittisak said'.  

Pandora´s box, once opened it will never ever close .... 

The article garners nearly 50 comments!

Anyway the Nation (Mar 1) reports that even the notion that prices might drop has been ... dropped:

'Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom yesterday said the NRPC [National Rice Policy Committee] would not convene today, as earlier announced by the ministry's permanent secretary Vatchari Vimooktayon.

...

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that to keep its promises to farmers, the government might maintain the pledging price. But because of fiscal constraints, it may put a lid on the amount each farmer can get from the programme.
"Officers involved with the scheme admitted that the pledging scheme had created many problems, including excessive budgets, limited warehousing space, and a drop in export volume," he said'. 

Inevitable?

But the pledge system continues. Bangkok Post (Mar 11) reports 

'The pledging price for the 2012-2013 second crop of off-season rice will remain unchanged, Internal Trade Department director-general Wiboonlaksana Ruamraksa says'. 

Aha. Farmers win? Or the cleptocrats?

On the side

The Nation continues (Mar. 6)  with summing up the costs: 

'The government's rice-pledging scheme is taking a toll on Thailand's tightly squeezed budget, as some of the funds from fiscal years 2014-16 might be required to offset the Bt100-billion [US$3 billion!] loss'.

Sell-off on the cards? 

'The government will have to sell off its rice stockpile amassed under the rice pledging scheme at market prices, PM's Office Minister Nawatthamrong Boonsongpaisan admitted on Thursday.
...  
Jac Luyendijk, chief executive officer at Swiss Agri Trading SA, which handles 600,000 tonnes of rice annually, said the price outlook in the long run is bleak. "We have to keep in mind that with these increasing rice stocks in Thailand, the problem will become bigger and bigger," Mr Luyendijk said. "Once Thailand unloads its stockpile we will look to very depressed rice prices for years to come." "Thailand will have to get rid of the surplus in the next few months to be able to continue the programme and purchase rice again," said Samarendu Mohanty, a senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute, a group based in the Philippines. "Thailand cannot continue to hold these stocks for a long time due to quality issues and also the space."' 

The optimists view of the road ahead, as reported by the Bangkok Post (Mar. 7).

Extending the rice pledging scheme is bad news (nothing new there ...)? At least according to the Nation (Mar. 14): 

'The government's insistence on maintaining the rice-pledging price at Bt15,000 per tonne for another year will not only continue to dampen Thailand's export competitiveness and the rice-trading industry, but also lead to higher budgetary losses and a gloomy future for rice-farming development'.

'The government's rice pledging scheme appears to have created a new worry for consumers. Besides concerns over whether the government can manage its huge rice stockpile to prevent any severe impact on the country's budget, many people now wonder if is it safe to eat rice that has been kept in warehouses for years'. 

Well, such articles (Bangkok Post, Mar. 18) are undercutting the Thai governments ability to off-load on the local market, let alone as exports ...

More opposition as noted in the Bangkok Post (Mar. 19): 

'The government's costly rice pledging programme is again under fire, this time riling Virabongsa Ramangkura.

"I disagree with the government's plan to use taxpayers' money to subsidise the state's rice pledging scheme in the off-season harvest," said Mr Virabongsa, chairman of the Strategic Committee for Reconstruction and Future Development.

"The government had better shift its focus to promote high-value crops such as Hom Mali rice, organic rice, energy crops and fast-growing plants such as eucalyptus and the neem tree (Sadao). These will generate more benefits."'

There are some limitations set to the pledging. According to the Bangkok Post (Mar. 20), 18 varieties will be excluded. These short duration varieties are considered poor quality and thus fail to meet new quality requirements. do note that this is a proposal ...
 
ASEAN wide

Neighbours of Thailand are becoming ripe for harvesting? CPF thinks so (Nation, Mar. 4) and is investing in Lao and Cambodia: 

'CP Laos and CP Cambodia are investing a combined Bt250 million to set up a new silo for maize in Cambodia and a new feed-meal plant in Laos to strengthen CPF's integrated agricultural-industrial business ...'.

Focus:

'Sakol [Sakol Cheewakoset, president of CP Laos and CP Cambodia] said the plant in Pailin province would ensure the company's distribution in western Cambodia, an important area for agricultural production. Having a plant there will reduce logistics costs. Initially, capacity is set at 10,000 tonnes per month.
The company is also considering investing in aquaculture in Cambodia in the near future.
"CP's business in Cambodia is doing well, as food business still has great opportunity. Our five-year business plan aims to double our total sales every year," Sakol said'.

Meanwhile in Burma, a sign of the rosy future? The Nation (Mar. 19) reports that Burmese rice is heading towards Japan for the first time.

 

Rice and more

Meanwhile Cambodia is experiencing a positive return on it's exports.  Phnom Penh Post (PPP, Mar. 5) reports:

'Cambodia milled rice exports reached 49,815 tonnes in the first two months of this year, an increase of 106 per cent from the same period last year. Jasmine rice was the biggest part of the exports, followed by long grain white rice, data from the Secretariat of the One Window service for rice exports showed'.

Exports for all agricultural products to Malaysia looking up according to the PPP (Mar. 4): 

'Cambodia’s exports of agricultural products to Malaysia rose sharply last year compared to a year earlier, according to a press release from the Malaysian embassy to Cambodia, with milled rice and crude rubber accounting for most of the total'.

The PPP (Mar. 3) cites a report by Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) which looks into the sales of fertilizer. Amongst it's finds: 

'Lim Chheng Lay, vice-chairman of Lim Bun Heng Trading Co, a fertiliser importer and distribution company, estimates 40 per cent of fertiliser currently on the market is fake. ...

CDRI conducted a small survey of 35 farmers in Takeo province and estimates that 10 per cent of farmers had bought fake fertilisers, causing yield losses worth between $285 and $350.

CDRI’s preliminary findings also question the government’s licensing conditions, suggesting that it constrains market potential and encourages “large scale” illegal fertiliser smuggling from Vietnam.

After many attempts to make contact, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries would not comment on the issue'. 

All involved want the government to take action as if the government is able to, willing and most preferred party to intervene. How about companies taking action? Or farmers identifying fake fertilizer traders?

Millers need cash. So the Asian Development Bank responds with the Climate Resilient Rice Commercialization Sector Development program. Newsworthy? PPP (Mar. 11): 

'The Ministry of Commerce and bank officials announced yesterday that they will hold a meeting next month aimed at better facilitating rice millers’ access to credit'. 

So not newsworthy.

New markets? Green Trade is betting on Libya, so reports the PPP (Mar. 14). They cite company officials sounding very upbeat. Note:

'Last August, Green Trade signed a deal with Indonesia’s state-owned DULOG to supply 100,000 tonnes of milled rice per year. However, the rice was never exported'.

The PPP (Mar. 13) notes that returns from rubber are dropping even though prices are going up (seasonally) year-on-year the prices are down. 

'In 2012, Cambodia exported 54,000 tonnes of dried rubber, up 16.6 per cent from 46,700 tonnes in 2011.
The total value of 2012 exports, however, dropped 21.2 per cent to $158 million from $201 million in 2011, according to figures from the Ministry of Commerce'.

An article in the PPP (Mar. 20) notes how the government would like to diversify it's exports by promoting exports of agricultural produce. Seems more wishful thinking than a sound strategy.

Something missing from Cambodia? Not in the national news but Radio Australia (Mar. 19) mentions that large-scale rice cultivation should be halted: 

'Environmental scientists are calling for a stop to commercial rice farms being granted huge swathes of land in Cambodia, as one way to protect tropical flooded grasslands and the species that depend on them'. 

It follows on the heels of a Bangkok Post (Mar. 18) report on the subject: 

'Scientists from England's University of East Anglia said big companies have swept into the region, blocked off local communities, and set up commercial rice farms.

"The loss of this entire ecosystem from Southeast Asia is imminent," they said bluntly.

Researchers around the Tonle Sap great lake in northwestern Cambodia called the loss "catastrophic". The area is a wildlife centre of biodiversity and, equally, "a vital fishing, grazing, and traditional rice farming resource for around 1.1 million people," the researchers said'.

Rice prices
Do note that Vietnamese prices are dropping in real terms as well as in comparison to Thai rice prices, according to recent price overview from the FAO:

Prices are set to drop though. Bloomberg (Mar. 5) reports global plantings up to a record high with demand flat or even dropping.

Odd

Odd going-ons in Vietnam. According to Saigon GP Daily (Mar. 19) hybrid rice is illegally being cultivated in Tien Giang. The charactter of the offence: 

'Since Man [Nguyen Duc Man, director general of Pioneer Hi-Bred Vietnam Co. Ltd] is growing hybrid rice on a non-appointed area and without a legal license from the government, the Tien Giang Department of Agriculture and Rural Development is now checking his documents and will hold a meeting with local authorities to resolve this issue'. 

Sometimes one can exaggerate the dangers. The article also mentions: 

'In related news, residents of Tan Loi Hamlet in Tan Tien Commune in Tri Ton District of An Giang Province, discovered suspicious looking strangers trying to lease 12 hectares of land to grow hybrid rice. Had they not been found out and reported to local authorities, these strangers would have organized an informal discussion to introduce growing techniques for this hybrid variety to farmers'.

Following on the succes of it's hybrid rice seeds, Longping Agriculture wants to expand (Chinadailyusa, Mar. 14) to become a global leader. It's next step: 

'Wu [Wu Yueshi, chairman of the board of Yuan Longping High-tech Agriculture] said that in its first step to achieve the company's goal, it has submitted a proposal to the current session of CPPCC National Committee to build an "International Rice City" in Changsha of Hunan province, under the leadership of agrarian scientist Yuan Longping, honored as the father of hybrid rice.

"If the proposal is approved, the city will serve as an international production base of hybrid rice to further secure the national grain supply and meet the world's food demand," said Wu, who is also a member of the CPPCC National Committee'.