Lies and Statistics

Possibly getting lost in the current day all-encompassing reporting on Covid-19, Stop Golden Rice Network on their Facebook page posts (Apr. 4) their call to IRRI:

'IRRI on its 60th anniversary continues to boast about its supposed impacts on reducing poverty and increasing food security. Entering the third year of implementing its Strategic Plan for 2017-2025, IRRI, whose claim is to be the most trusted source of knowledge for the global rice industry and custodian of genetic resources, has set out plans to solve problems by doing ‘deep research’, further widespread adaptation of innovations and technologies and policy interventions on the rice sector .
However IRRI, the self-proclaimed “home of the Green Revolution in Asia”, is becoming increasingly irrelevant, as it has failed miserably in its mission to “improve livelihoods and nutrition, abolishing poverty, hunger and malnutrition among those who depend on rice-based agri-food systems.”Although the Green Revolution did actually raise production substantially, it was only for a short period of time and at a heavy cost.
IRRI’s next phase of activities would further entrench the hold of corporations on the rice industry. Dubbed as the Gene Revolution, IRRI is now concentrating on the widespread adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops, specifically Golden Rice. Based on the ‘4th industrial revolution’ model, IRRI’s research agenda is now tapping into ‘Big Data’, which will be of great use to corporations striving to earn more profits. It is also pushing for the ‘modernization’ of agriculture, where farming without farmers would be the new trend.
With the theme “Going Beyond Rice”, IRRI is gearing for another phase of its agenda to further the interests of huge agrocorporations through its Six Lies:
LIE #1: IRRI delivers through research excellence
TRUTH: IRRI’s top-down approach has eroded farmers’ knowledge and genetic diversity
....
LIE #2: IRRI is an honest advisor for the global rice industry
TRUTH: IRRI has imposed anti-small farmer policies across the globe
...
LIE #3: IRRI has strong relations with its community
TRUTH: IRRI has violated the rights of its workers and peasants
...
LIE #4: IRRI sets the bar for sustainable rice systems
TRUTH: IRRI has poisoned the people and destroyed the environment
...
LIE #5: IRRI is a wise steward of resources
TRUTH: IRRI has ushered in corporate control of seeds and agriculture
...
LIE #6: Improve livelihoods and nutrition, abolishing poverty, hunger and malnutrition
TRUTH: IRRI has created widespread food insecurity
...
OUR RESOUNDING CALL!
On the anniversary of IRRI’s six decades of operation we are renewing our call for an agriculture that puts farmers at the center and gives value to agrobiodiversity and food sovereignty. Conditions are favorable to heightening our struggle for food sovereignty - the power of people and their communities to assert and realize the right to food and to produce food and to fight the power of corporations and other forces that destroy the people’s food production systems and deny them food and life is growing. Let us demand that states exercise food sovereignty to protect, promote and develop the food sovereignty of the people from which they draw their power.
On IRRI’s 60th anniversary: No more lies, not one more year for IRRI!

Luckily I'm able to summarise in the above; it's a very damming report on IRRI's past and exposes its' weaknesses ahead. Should we consider IRRI's silence, an agreement with the above?

Health

Let's look at more politics, this time how capitalism is working. Not for us.

Guardian (Mar. 12) has another take on Monsanto, apparently they finance independent research:

'Monsanto secretly funded academic studies indicating “very severe impacts” on farming and the environment if its controversial glyphosate weedkiller were banned, an investigation has found.
The research was used by the National Farmers’ Union and others to successfully lobby against a European ban in 2017. As a result of the revelations, the NFU has now amended its glyphosate information to declare the source of the research.
...
Bayer said farmers around the globe rely on glyphosate to provide enough food for the world’s growing population. But campaigners claim Monsanto has defended the product by ghostwriting research papers for regulators and using front groups to discredit critical scientists and journalists. In 2017, the Guardian revealed that EFSA based its recommendation that glyphosate was safe on an EU report that copied and pasted analyses from a Monsanto study'.

More disclosures. The Guardian (Mar. 29):

'The US agriculture giant Monsanto and the German chemical giant BASF were aware for years that their plan to introduce a new agricultural seed and chemical system would probably lead to damage on many US farms, internal documents seen by the Guardian show.
Risks were downplayed even while they planned how to profit off farmers who would buy Monsanto’s new seeds just to avoid damage, according to documents unearthed during a recent successful $265m lawsuit brought against both firms by a Missouri farmer.
The documents, some of which date back more than a decade, also reveal how Monsanto opposed some third-party product testing in order to curtail the generation of data that might have worried regulators.
And in some of the internal BASF emails, employees appear to joke about sharing “voodoo science” and hoping to stay “out of jail”.
The new crop system developed by Monsanto and BASF was designed to address the fact that millions of acres of US farmland have become overrun with weeds resistant to Monsanto’s glyphosate-based weedkillers, best known as Roundup. The collaboration between the two companies was built around a different herbicide called dicamba'.

Mongabay (Apr. 1) gives us a different insight, this time from Brazil where pesticide companies are getting healthy tax breaks:

'Imagine starting out the year having to pay your property taxes, your car taxes or any other taxes. Imagine getting to the supermarket and receiving a 40% discount on shampoo and 30% on tomato sauce. Imagine being able to take out a bank loan with interest well below that of the market
This is more or less what companies that manufacture and sell pesticides operate in Brazil, protected by a package of benefits that, counting just tax exemptions and reductions, add up to nearly R$10 billion (US$ 2.2 billion) every year, according to an unprecedented study carried out by ABRASCO, the Brazilian Association of Collective Health, executed by researchers from the Oswaldo Cruz foundation and the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro.
The amount that the Brazilian government fails to collect because of tax exemptions on pesticides is nearly four times as much as the Ministry of the Environment’s total budget this year (R$2.7 billion, or US$ 600 milllion) and more than double what the nation’s national health system [SUS] spent to treat cancer patients in 2017 (R$4.7 billion, or US$ 1 billion)'.

Panic

Before the madness, the Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 2) looked at where the rice market was heading.

'Cambodian rice exports to international markets grew sharply by more than 21 per cent in the first two months of this year despite fears of the Covid-19 pandemic causing global concern.
Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Veng Sakhorn released the data last week, noting in the first two months of 2020, Cambodian rice exports to international markets reached 136,499 tonnes, an increase of 21.34 per cent compared to the same period last year.
China is the leading market for rice from Cambodia, with a market share of 37.43 per cent, followed by the European market at 30.31 per cent, Asean region at 18.48 per cent and other destinations at 13.78 per cent.
According to the data, exports to the Chinese market in the first two months of 2020 were 51,092 tonnes, an increase of 17.58 per cent compared to the 2019’s 43,452 tonnes.
Exports to the European market reached 41,373 tonnes, a 21.79 per cent increase from 33,969 tonnes.
The Asean region stood at 25,231 tonnes, up 39.77 per cent from 18,051 tonnes, and other regions hit 18,803 tonnes, up 28.7 per cent from 14,609 tonnes.
...
According to a CRF report, in 2019, Cambodia exported 620,106 tonnes of rice to international markets, down 0.97 per cent from 626,225 tonnes in 2018'.

But then life as we know it changed. Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 8) notes early last month how panic might be creeping in:

'As fears of Covid-19 drive people to stockpile food, some fear supermarkets may run out of essential commodities like rice.
To avert this scenario, the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) has announced that it will be supplying an extra 100-500 tonnes of rice to shops in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap.
CRF secretary-general Lun Yeng on Sunday told The Post that the additional rice will ensure the price of the commodity doesn’t skyrocket.
Yeng urged Cambodians to remain calm. “Please don’t panic. We have plenty of rice. Together, all our members have over 400,000 tonnes of rice in stock. We will make it available at an affordable price,” he said'.

Then as the Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 19) notes, this supplying local markets has helped:

'The Green Trade Company and the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) on Wednesday said increasing the supply of milled rice in the local market has helped stabilise prices as the country faces the threat of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Earlier this month, a significant number of people were reported to be stockpiling staple goods like rice in fear that the outbreak of the novel coronavirus could lead to shortages.
CRF vice-president Chan Sokheang told The Post that to prevent shortages of important commodities like rice, the government and the private sector were working together to increase shipments of the grain to local shops by 100 to 500 tonnes'.

But it still doesn't mean that the future stocks could be enough, so the Khmer PM announces as follows. The Khmer Times (Mar. 31):

'Prime Minister Hun Sen has ordered a stop to all exports of white rice and paddy from April 5 until further notice. Speaking at the news conference after the parliamentary session yesterday, Mr Hun Sen said the decision was made to safeguard local supply in response to COVID-19 food shortage fears'.

So no exports. What happens? The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 31):

'As a ban on white rice and paddy exports is set to go into effect this weekend, Vietnamese traders seize the moment to buy in bulk, buoying prices beyond what local rice millers and traders are able to pay.
Prime Minister Hun Sen on Monday ordered the suspension of white rice and paddy exports from Cambodia from 11:59pm on April 5, on the grounds of securing domestic supplies while Covid-19 is continuing to spread in Cambodia.
He told the Ministry of Economy and Finance to look into the possibility of disbursing funds to millers to buy paddy from those who had previously sold it to traders in neighbouring countries.
...
State-owned Agricultural and Rural Development Bank (ARDB) encourages all companies and rice millers to continue to purchase OM 5451 and IR 85 (504) paddy from farmers at market prices following the ban, it said in a press release on Monday.
ARDB executive director Kao Thach said it has always supported the agricultural sector by disbursing money to rice millers so that they can purchase additional paddy for stock.
“When the government sets a moratorium on exports, the ARDB must work hard to help the government achieve its plan.
“We are currently preparing the bank’s capital for disbursement to helping rice millers buy paddy from farmers,” Thach said.
He said 70-80 per cent of ARDB’s capital is currently allocated to the rice sector.
Last year, the Kingdom exported around 2.15 million tonnes of paddy to Vietnam, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries data shows'.

Meanwhile, the bellweather of rice exports, had initially this response.  The Bangkok Post (Mar. 3):

'Rice prices are expected to rise until the middle of the year as global consumers are beefing up their stockpiles, with China unlikely to rev up its rice exports for food security in light of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of Thai Rice Exporters Association, said global rice demand has surged since the deadly virus outbreak, leading rice prices to increase by US$30-50 since early in the year.
"People, particularly in the US, Europe and Asia, are staying home, while China, which controls a massive rice stock of up to 120 million tonnes, has halted exports after shipping 3 million tonnes priced about $100 per tonne lower than Thai grains last year," he said'.

But a month later they are more cautious it seems. Bangkok Post (Apr. 2):

'Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office under the Commerce Ministry, said her office has been monitoring global rice markets during the pandemic, with many key rice exporters such as India, China and Vietnam halting shipments to ensure sufficient food domestically.
Ms Pimchanok said Thailand is unlikely to experience any food or rice shortages, as domestic consumer demand accounts for just 50% of total production.
"Exports represent only 32% of the country's rice production every year, with domestic consumption accounting for 50% and the remainder slated for inventory," she said. "If export demand increases and domestic consumption rises as more people stay home, a shortage is unlikely.
"Our existing rice stocks can accommodate domestic rice consumption for up to six months until the next annual harvest season. Nevertheless, the ministry has requested the private sector help maintain stocks to ensure adequate domestic supply."

The FAO Rice Price Update for April notes the market in the upswing, but for how long?

'The FAO All Rice Price Index (2002-2004=100) rose for the third successive month in March 2020, reaching 232 points, up 1.7 percent from February and 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Indica prices drove the increase, as Japanese purchases provided only mild support (0.7 percent) to March Japonica values, while the Aromatic Index fell by 3.1 percent to a three-year low of 198 points, on weak Near Eastern demand'.

Lacking

Then a lengthy article from the Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 20) which delves in the climate change adaptation projects of the Khmer nation:

'Dust swirls in the distance of vast rice fields flanking north-connecting National Road 6. It signals the start of the dry season in Cambodia. There is no human activity, as the heat is stifling.
March to June are the hottest months. The balmy days can hit 43 Celcius, triggering the brisk sale of air conditioners and fans in the cities. In the provinces though, farming communities brace for the harsh weather.
Every year, the drought is said to be longer than the previous year although rainfall is projected to rise in wet seasons. Most times the outcome is different.
...
Agriculture infrastructures have been built in farming provinces, with many in the pipeline but these architectures lack insight.
Seen as game changers to rice production, with the likelihood of raising output, irrigation canals are only so good as being connected to a water source.
As of 2008, rice farming constituted 2.6 million hectares out of 3.31 million hectares of arable land.
Permanent crops and rubber plantations made up less than one million hectares.
Out of the total land, only seven to eight per cent is irrigated while 10 per cent is supplementary irrigated. The remaining 80 per cent relies on rainfall.
In 2017, 28.5 per cent of the national climate budget was spent on irrigation, the highest allocation compared to other climate-related segments such as road improvement, climate-affected livelihood, and climate disaster preparedness and management.
...
However, this data is a rough estimate procured from various sources, as the authorities claim its disclosure is sensitive, even though the rice sector forms the nation’s second largest export market.
The fact that the farming industry teeters on the onslaught of climate change with secretive figures, questionable budget allocations for climate projects and the lack of initiative to see them through, is somewhat damning.
In Cambodia, about 75 per cent of the population is involved in the agriculture sector. The sector contributed 32.1 per cent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011.
Having said that, the Climate Change Strategic Plan (2014-2023) identifies agriculture as being the most affected by it, with 90 per cent of losses from extreme events related to crop harvest failure.
And this impact is closely connected to water resources shortage.
It also threatens Cambodia’s food security, and hits on the poverty level as crop damage and lower wages can push the highly indebted communityfurther below the line.
Given the gravity of the impact, the government has been gradually increasing climate change expenditure.
Its proportion to the GDP, the expenditure rose marginally to one per cent in 2017 from 0.9 per cent a year ago, underpinned by larger external and domestic fundings.
In absolute terms, total climate expenditure rose 23 per cent to 912 billion riel ($221 million) in 2017 from 770 billion riel in 2016.
Unfortunately, only 10 per cent was spent on the agriculture and fisheries sectors.
Despite the increased allocation, the sum is paltry compared to the total national budget of 20,556 billion riel in 2017, and when balanced against the actual benefit to combating climate change.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s Climate Public Expenditure Review 2017 (CPER) revealed that once climate change relevance weights are applied to the budget, it only constituted 3.2 per cent of the total public expenditure, the same level in 2016. It dipped from 4.3 per cent in 2015.
...
The limited ownership of climate action plans in the ministries and its implementation is perhaps related to underfunding, suggests the mid-term review of Climate Change Strategic Plan in 2019.
For instance, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ technical working group, which was created to develop the climate action plan, was unclear of its function after the plan was approved.
...
Moving forward, with the unpredictable weather wreaking havoc in the agriculture sector, coupled with weak climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, more farmers might just turn in their tools than risk taking a gamble year after year'.

Sliced

Looking farther afield, let's start with the Khmer Times (Apr. 3) summing up the nations exports, including rice:

'Agricultural commodities amounting to US$2.9 million were exported to foreign markets in the first quarter of this year, a 20 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

A report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries showed that the agricultural commodities exported comprises rice, dry sliced cassava, fresh cassava, cassava starch, cashew, fresh banana, soybean, mangoes, pepper and rubber.

The main products of export during the period were paddy rice (849,382 tons), dry sliced cassava (864,620 tons), fresh cassava (689,122 tons), milled rice (230,948 tons), and cashew nuts (121,976 tons)'.

Is it just me or is there something wrong with the above?  Seems like a paltry sum for all what's listed.

But anyway rice 1, cassava 2, cashew 3.

Cashew?

The Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 26):

'The Ministry of Commerce has set up a technical-working group to study and compile the Kingdom’s draft cashew nut policy in an effort to promote its production and export, it said in a press release on Tuesday.

The working group comprises thirteen members, including representatives from the ministry and several NGOs.

“The working group is tasked with facilitating meetings and the planning and drafting of an updated advisory report on cashew nut production.

...

Cambodia exported some 202,318 tonnes of cashew nuts last year to foreign markets, up nearly 100 per cent from 2018’s 101,973 tonnes, a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries report said.

Khan Samban, director of the ministry’s Department of Agro-industry, told The Post last month that the strong growth in exports is due to the ministry’s simplification of export procedures and the commodity’s improved standards.

“Our cashew nuts have a good taste and quality, so we’ve received increased demand from foreign countries,” Samban said.

He said he expects cashew nut prices to be around 5,000 or 6,000 riel per kilogramme in the early harvest season this year'.

The Khmer Times (Mar. 30) chimes in:

'A representative of a cashew growing association has said that market prices for the fruit have dramatically decreased in the last fortnight, blaming border restrictions and a reduction in demand.

Oum Ourn, head of Sambo Prei Kuk Cashew Nut Association in Kampong Thom province, speaking to Khmer Times said that the 380 farming families that he represents are struggling to deal with a nearly 50-percent reduction in what they can sell cashew nuts for.

Before COVID-19’s detrimental effects on the agriculture sector, on average, cashew nuts normally fetched from between 4,000 riel (about $1) to 5,000 (about $1.25) a kilogramme (kg), but now the fruit is priced at around 2,500 riel ($0.62) per kg'.

Spotted

Ok, but I'm missing rubber ...

The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 10) has a comprehensive article on the crops outlook:

'The government has reduced taxes on rubber exports to minimise the impact of a fall in the international price of the commodity.

A sub-decree signed by Prime Minister Hun Sen on Sunday stipulates that exports of rubber valued under $1,400 per tonne are not taxable. Shipments valued between $1,400 and $3,500 per tonne will be taxed $25 to $200 per tonne.

...

Cambodia exported 282,071 tonnes of rubber last year, a 30 per cent increase from 2018’s 217,501 tonnes, according to official figures. The commodity reeled in $377 million in revenue last year, up 32 per cent from 2018’s $286 million.

A total of 406,142ha of rubber were planted last year, of which 247,113ha were harvested'.

Adding to the info, there's this concerning Laos from the Vientiane Times (Mar. 2)

'The export value of rubber from Laos has increased, while the market price of the commodity is also rising, meaning the commodity is enjoying renewed commercial success.

Laos earned US$153.4 million from rubber exports in 2017, rising to US$168.1 million in 2018 and to almost US$217.5 million last year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

But the crop fell to second place as an agricultural export earner after topping the list in 2018. The export value of buffalo and cattle hit the top spot last year[!].

In 2017 the price of rubber slumped to 3,000-4,000 kip per kg due to an oversupply on the global market, but is now selling for 5,000-6,000 kip, according to agriculture officials.

The export value of rubber is increasing as the number of rubber trees being tapped increases.

But low market prices in recent years caused some growers to abandon the crop in favour of other commodities.

Hundreds of hectares of rubber trees have been cut down to make way for other crops.

Many rubber growers, especially in the northern provinces, have been struggling because of the low market price.

Last year, Laos received a larger order from China for the purchase of rubber grown in Luang Namtha province.

In 2017, China ordered 10,000 tonnes of rubber Laos, but this year the quota increased to 20,000 tonnes, local commercial authorities reported.

Even though China is suffering disruption due to the Covid-19 outbreak, rubber shipments from Luang Namtha to China are proceeding as normal.

Laos currently has almost 300,000 hectares of rubber trees under cultivation including company-owned plantations and trees owned by local growers, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry reported.

The rubber price in Laos peaked at 15,000-20,000 kip per kilogram in 2010, with major export markets being China, Vietnam and Thailand.

The export value of rubber sold by Laos to China last year hit US$96.66 million and US$119.9 million worth of rubber was sold to Vietnam, but no figures were recorded for Thailand in 2018 and 2019'.

Warm 

Then, also mentioned were mangoes, an upcoming crop. The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 3) gives an overview:

'Signatures of Asia, a local exporter, plans to begin shipping mangoes to Europe and Canada in the near future.

Before exporting the fruit, the firm needs to find packaging facilities that meet Europe and Canada’s quality standards, Signatures of Asia general manager Chan Pich said.

“We have clients in Europe and Canada that want to buy fresh Cambodian mangoes. They said they want to sell our mangoes in their stores because they taste great,” Pich said.

“We are now looking for advanced packaging plants that comply with European and Canada’s hygiene and quality standards,” he said.

“Cambodian mango tastes great but, unlike Thailand or Vietnam, Cambodia lacks packing facilities,” he said.

The company is aiming to export 3.5 tonnes of fresh mangoes per week to the European Union and Canada.

...

Kirirom Food Product (KFP) Co Ltd sales manager Mao Khunthea told The Post on Tuesday that her company exports dry mango to China, Europe, Australia, and Thailand.

“We sell the mango at about 800 riel per kilogram,” she said, noting that her company uses about 50 tonnes of mangoes every day.

Last year, Cambodia exported 58,162 tonnes of fresh mangoes to six markets – Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, France, Russia and Hong Kong.

There are more than 100,000ha of mango farms in the country. Kampong Speu, Battambang, Kampot and Banteay Meanchey provinces are known for having the best mango in Cambodia'.

And there's more. The Phnom Penh Post (Mar. 12):

'Cambodian mango is proving popular among Korean consumers, the Korean Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (Kotra) said, encouraging more local firms to export the fruit to the East Asian country.

Speaking with Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Veng Sakhon on Tuesday, Kotra director-general Jongsoo Shin said Koreans greatly enjoy Cambodian mangoes.

“Fresh mango from Cambodia enjoys a warm welcome in South Korea. This will help attract more Korean investors to Cambodia,” he said.

Exports of Cambodian mangoes to South Korea begun in January after Korean authorities approved shipments of the fruit'.

But there is also a change coming. The Khmer Times (Apr. 12):

'The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has issued measures to prevent the drop in price of mangoes, which has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the ministry.
...
The price of mangoes strongly decreased during this period because some processing factories have been temporarilyy closed, causing an oversupply during the harvest season and fewer buyers.
According to the ministry, the price of mangoes currently is 320 riels a kilogramme, down from 800 riels in 2019. The Ministry said that currently about 20 to 30 tonnes of mangoes are bought every day by companies.
There are more than 100,000 hectares of land planted with mango trees in Cambodia, mostly in Kampong Speu, Kampot, Battambang, and Banteay Meanchey provinces'.

Assessment

Not much to mention this month, everyone seems busy in growing rice itself rather than buying, selling and / or producing hot air.

Let's start with some bytes from Cambodia itself. The Phnom Penh Post (Jun. 8):

'Cambodian rice exports have dramatically declined over the past three months compared to the same period last year, according to data released by the General Department of Agriculture yesterday. The data detailed that rice exports had a monthly decrease of 14.5 per cent in March, 30.8 per cent in April, and 28.5 per cent in May'.  

It seems that the dropping prices which are heading even more lower are driving Cambodian government policies.

Take the Khmer Times (Jun. 29):

'The government has come to the rescue of rice millers and exporters, currently in the throes of a serious financial crisis, with loans of between $20 and $30 million to the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF). This is to help the sector purchase rice from farmers after the harvest this November, to store in warehouses and process them for export, said the CRF'.

Or this from the Phnom Penh Post (Jun. 29): 

'The Ministry of Economy and Finance announced on Monday that the government will block all illegal rice imports at its borders and limit legal rice shipments from Vietnam based on production cost.

...

According to Sarith [secretary-general of the Cambodian Rice Federation (CRF)], Vietnamese rice produced for $200 to $300 per tonne was cheaper than locally milled rice, even with a 17 per cent import and VAT tax assessed'. 

Or Phnom Penh Post (Jun. 1):

'The Institute of Standards of Cambodia (ISC) is soliciting feedback from local stakeholders as it prepares to launch two new standards for the rice industry, the country’s most important agricultural sector.

The ISC is giving the public until June 30 to comment on its proposed national standards for the production and trade of two premium rice varieties – phka rumduol and phka chansensar – Chheng Uddara, director of the ISC’s standards development, training and consultancy department, said yesterday'.

The New Mandala (Jul. 1) has an extensive view of the direction where the Cambodian rice industry should be heading. Synopsis of what needs to be done: branding, certifying and reducing transport costs.

That may seem so easy, but in all three mentioned Cambodia is far behind competitors. 

The article concludes that the only way to stay competitive is to market a different product. Alas, the article fails to mention what that different product should be.

Hurting

Further afield the Bangkok Post (Jun. 3) seems very much interested in what the junta is feeding the press: 

'The government is set to call its biggest rice auction to capitalise on higher demand as new supply wanes.
...

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the new auction was timely given high market demand, but noted the amount was relatively high. Mr Chookiat said the government's auction was unlikely to affect rice market prices, as state stocks are mostly old grains while foreign purchase orders require primarily newly harvested rice'.

Naturally then that the Bangkok Post reports (Jun. 16) on the positives of this recent rice auction:

'The government has sold an estimated 1.99 million tonnes in its latest rice auction, the biggest since the National Council for Peace and Order took control, fetching 19.4 billion baht'.

And more government sales are expected from Thailand (Bangkok Post, Jun. 28):

'Thai rice is likely to see strong sales in the second half of the year as officials visit various countries to make deals amid expected healthy demand'. 

Funny thing though is that sales are still down for 2016 at lower prices ...

 
Rice production will be down in Laos (Vientiane Times, Jun. 23): 

'Rice production this fiscal year may be less than targeted as both natural disaster, including drought and flooding, as well as insects are expected to impact crop yields'. 

Vientiane Times on (Jul. 1) reports on the sudden realisation that most of what Laos produces is de-facto organic: 

'Officials believe that some rice fields in Savannakhet province that do not use chemical pesticides and herbicides might have the potential to grow organic rice for the international market.
Talking on the possible markets there was this comment:
'“One of the problems we found during the training of farmers is the change from old skills to new. It's hard to tell them to change what they have learnt from their parents about farming rice,” he [Head of the plantation division of the Savannakhet Agriculture and Forestry Department] said'.

Then from Vietnam the Tuoitrenews (Jun. 11) comes with trade news:

'China has started applying more stringent regulation to ensure the safety of rice imports from Vietnam, a move some Vietnamese insiders say will benefit, instead of hurting, the rice sector'. 

It seems to stimulate official imports over illegal and give impetus to quality control while bringing down costs for verification. All good news apparently.

Peaked

A couple of other crops to hear from. Btw what's happened to our rubber press?

Anyway, the Phnom Penh Post (Jun. 14) focuses on the negatives of the black pepper boom which manifests itself in increased deforestation both to expand in area as well as to provide supports:

'While the luxury timber trade continues to eat away at Cambodia’s forests, there is another industry that poses a growing threat to the Kingdom’s trees: pepper farms.

...

Black pepper prices peaked during June 2015 at $10,900 per tonne, compared to $1,560 per tonne in July 2005, according to Nedspice. 

....

“Not only local people but also newcomers want to grow pepper,” said Prob Chib, a member of a Phnong ethnic community in Mondulkiri, adding that the new arrivals hail from Kratie, Kampong Cham, Tbong Khmum, Prey Veng, Takeo and Siem Reap. 

“First they cut down the forest and sell the wood, then they occupy the land while they grow pepper, then they cut the forest in another location to make pepper stakes. It’s double deforestation'.

More negatives, this time from the banana business. The Bangkok Post (Jun. 5) looks at the banana business driven by Chinese interests in the north of Thailand.

The article explores recent developments with large scale investment from China into banana growing. Much is made of it's supposedly over-use of chemicals, it's extraction of water from rivers and the way these leases are set up with what might be foreign entities (not allowed under Thai law). 

It makes a comparison with Japanese driven investment in northern Thai agriculture: 

'Under Lanna Agro-Industrial's model contract farmers, who own the land, have the power to negotiate prices, said Ekasit Nunbhakdi, coordinator of the Japan Watch Project and a researcher for Thailand Research Fund. "We have to ask ourselves why Thai farmers have to rely on Chinese investors, who are perceived as treating workers and resources poorly. Are we taking care of our farmers well?" ddition, Thailand does not view agriculture as important to its culture. "Unlike the Japanese who see agriculture as part of their cultural foundation," Mr Ekasit said."Thailand views agriculture as a commercial product. Thai farmers receive too little assistance, they take whatever they can get."   

Equally on the negative subject the Vientiane Times (Jun. 16):

'Imports of cassava and its products into Thailand must adhere to the specific government announcements, Thai government officials reaffirmed'.

It seems Thailand is willing to kill off imports by insisting on officialdom.

Paintbrush
Then the wrapping up of this blog some GMO issues. 

Regionally: the Bangkok Post (Jun. 9) copies as decreed by junta:

'Authorities have brushed aside farmers' concerns about imports of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) if Thailand joins the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Winichai Chaemchaeng, commerce vice-minister, said the TPP would limit GMO issues only to information exchange and cooperation on trade-related matters associated with products of modern biotechnology. Thailand has the Plant Quarantine Act that bars imports of GMOs, he said'.

Unfortunately the TPP will trump national legislation ...

Finally, the undergroundreporter notes (Jun. 15) how Brazil has a moratorium on imports of GMO from the United States: 

'The list of countries refusing Monsanto’s genetically-modified crops continues to grow. Highlighting the world divide on the issue, Brazil recently refused all U.S.-grown GM crops. While we are continually force-fed genetically modified foods — since they are in approximately 80 percent of all packaged, conventional foods in grocery stores in America — other countries are refusing to import them, grow them, or sell them within their borders.
...
Ironically, Brazil is the the second largest producer of GM crops in the world after the U.S., and grows 29 varieties of GM corn, so they are likely pulling rank for trade rather than hoping to save their population’s health  ...'.

Mortgage

With flood levels rising, it appears that expectations concerning Southeast Asia's harvests are dampening, probably resulting in a short term increase in prices.

On top of that comes the possibly ill-conceived Thai rice mortgage plan which hopes to increase international prices while safeguarding local prices and enriching farmers in the meantime.
The plan is the hottest issue concerning rice at this moment.

Phnom Penh Post chips in (on 29-09-2011) with an interview with CEDAC's president Yang Saing Koma. Unfortunately he does not give much regard to the Thai plan which I would believe will raise domestic prices for Cambodian rice and could well impede Cambodia's own plans to increase exports independent of Thai trade.

Among the many problems are those involved with increased corruption. Just today the Bangkok Post reported on a poll among economists:

'... that most economists polled recently believed there would definitely be corruption in the government's rice mortgage scheme.
...
The pollsters reported that 82 per cent of the respondents believed corruption would definitely taint the scheme, and 86 per cent felt that rice millers and silos would gain the most benefit, not farmers.
A total of 74 per cent of the economists thought that consumers would be the biggest losers, and 60 per cent said the farm income guarantee programme of the Democrats was better, according to the pollsters'.

Other skeptics include the Thai Farmers Association again reported in the Bangkok Post (30-09-2011):

'Wichean Puanglamchiak, vice-president of Thai Farmers Association, said the government's idea to mortgage all paddy sounds good on the surface. But it will backfire in a matter of months. "Most farmers do not have any farmland of their own and rent land for farming. "And chances are that when the next season comes, land owners will take their land back and hire farmers to work on their farms," he said'.

The Nation (22-09-2011) gives air for Narongchai Akrasanee, former minister and economist:

'... we are worried about the rice-pledging scheme, as we don't know how much it will cost ...'.

Others skeptics:

'its opponents, including former deputy prime minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula and renowned economist Ammar Siamwalla from the Thailand Development Research Institute.
...
MR Pridiyathorn said taxpayers could be hit with a 250-billion-baht bill under the government's return to what he called a "loophole-ridden" rice mortgage subsidy programme. The programme could also result in Thailand losing its status as the world's top rice-exporting nation, he said'.

Again printed by Bangkok Post (27-09-2011).

The Nation on September 5 2011 heads a warning by Thai Development Research Institute (TDRI):

'While consumers and taxpayers will suffer from the government's controversial rice policy, Vietnam will substantially gain, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) has warned.
...
He [Ammar Siamwalla of TDRI] said farmers would ignore developing grain quality as the government had set up a high pledging price without regard to rice quality.The pledging project would draw a flood of rice from Cambodia and Burma. The market mechanism would be destroyed and only millers and a few exporters who joined the pledging scheme would survive, as the state would monopolise rice trading'.

One aspect of the plan is that it might well erode Thailand's pivotal position in the international rice trade. Previous years have seen others gain on Thailand. The Golbeandmail (26-09-2011) reports on India and Vietnam releasing larger amounts of stockpiles, while it reports that China is concerned even though it has higher than required stock piles. It also briefly states that China may well rely on science to provide the answer.

That said, the Asia Sentinel (23 September 2011) posts huge questions concerning China's potential to drastically improve productivity as prominently featured in Chinese press (see for example China Daily 19 September 2011: 'China sets new world record with hybrid rice yield'; as high as 14.5 ton/ha) . It's a very interesting article. It focuses on levels of nitrogen required which would need to rise to 250 kg/ha, which in turn could lead to increased soil acidity and depletion threatening China's own ability to produce.

Smaller issues:

• Further afield, despite previous reported problems with their American operations, Bayer CropScience continues on with their objective of market domination by getting an exclusive deal in Brazil.

• Interestingly, the ACIAR has calculated what financial returns were due to breeding efforts. Despite all the hoopla there's little to suggest that actually the increased financial rewards were due to higher current prices vs past prices, which in part is being blamed on the lack of breeding! It also stresses that the increased returns were earned by farmers, which is highly doubtful. Quick review of the study takes into account that the stated averages are higher than those observed in reality.
  

• In a what could be possibly a related hybrid rice issue, China has announced that they will not continue with the Confucius Peace Prize; China's most famous hybrid rice scientist

Market News

Estimating the estimates
Despite all the talk about droughts and floods, Cambodia rice production will rise. So reports the Phnom Penh Post (7 December 2010). Previous government estimates put the production at 7.3 million tonnes, while new estimates put production at 7.99 million tonnes. Why not 8?

'Agriculture Minister Chan Sarun said yesterday the gain in production was due to good rice seeds, an increase in dry season farming, a greater amount of farmed land and better understanding of farming techniques'.

It does seem that in spite of all adversities, the price is still leading the way. That's how economics work.
Many might question the governments estimate, quite rightly. Being on the other side of making estimates in other countries I know they are just a wild guess, at best a hunch.
But intriguing to see that the FAO has re-jigged their estimates as well, from 5.9 to 7.3 million tonnes, nearly 25%! Clearly they must have better strategies at coming to the final numbers ...

Produce offspring
Well, the same FAO will be stimulating private companies in Cambodia to produce rice seed, so reports the Phnom Penh Post (November 14, 2010).

'It is hoped the project, funded by the European Union, will help private firms to provide “pure” rice seed, rather than hybrid types'.

Really? Because the track record of private companies marketing open-pollinated rice seed production globally is sketchy as opposed to hybrid seed. At least the money is disposed of.
Then there is the government itself which has released 10 rice varieties (Phnom Penh Post, 27 September 2010)

Competition in sight
Cambodia has seen a continuing momentum in trying to export it's own rice rather than handing it over to it's neighbours. CAAI reports on a push to penetrate the Philippine market, home of hybrid rice. Despite all Philippine's efforts in promoting rice production, rice production is dropping so it seems. Time to hand over the government subsidies to the farmers themselves rather than the input providers?

Following on, CAM-SIT blog quotes Cambodian Business Review (August 2010)

'Rice from Vietnam and Cambodia now control up to 60 percent of the market'.

It gives a good overview of how Cambodia's rice exports seem to be eating into Thailand's export. Oddly it also includes this quote:

'“The price is not only higher but the quality of the rice is also lower, in terms of fragrance, size of grains and general quality of the milling. Thus, as much as we want to buy Cambodian rice, our efforts are being hampered by unreasonable prices from Cambodian exporters, “the buyer said'.

So that raises the question why buy Cambodian price if both price and quality are adverse? Politics?

Indian investor Amira Group (actually Amira Food) believes Cambodia is the future of global rice production. Paying upwards of 30 million $ for investing in rice processing and 25,000 ha seems a cheap price which the investor hastily agrees to.

'He noted that despite Cambodia’s rice-heavy farming sector, he felt that it lacked structured growth – something Amira would like to provide leadership on'.

Which seems to contradict reality.

Media contacts
In Thailand the government is hoping to join the competition in providing hybrid rice to farmers, according to the Bangkok Post (16 August 2010). The article lacks little substance to the claim of superiority of hybrids over conventinal varieties.

'"We have successfully developed three or four hybrid rice varieties but we need more time to improve the varieties, such as to add genes that have resistance against planthoppers, and/or climate change,"'

Three or four?

'Thailand has done R&D for hybrid varieties for 30 years but public concern over the impact on rice quality, as well as the cost, have impeded the development, she [Orapin Watanesk, a rice R&D specialist with the department] explained.'

Oddly it also cites another government official who doesn't seem to be on the hybrid bandwagon:

'He [Sune Kasisareewong, director of the Rice Seed Bureau] said the improved seeds had strong properties, affordable prices, and more importantly, farmers can use the harvested production or paddy as strain for their next crop'.

As opposed to hybrid rice.
One of it's biggest possible rivals would be CP which has high aims according to The Nation (22 November 2010). It also reports:

'For instance, the launch of CP’s hybrid rice seed CP 304 has allowed farmers to enjoy an average yield of 1,000 kilograms per rai. Production costs are also reduced, and the seeds have a special feature " drought resistance'.

CP also claims:

'Hybrid seeds are more expensive than other popular types, which cost about Bt50 per kilogram and produce an average of 450-500 kilograms per rai. Farmers will be compensated for the higher price of hybrid seeds by their lucrative yield'.

That contradicts reality, as prices for hybrid varieties are lower. CP provides Bangkok Post (11 June 2010) with the economic details on the costs / income but wisely forgets the lower price simply saying the price of the produce whether hybrid variety or Jasmine rice is same, same. But different?

The other market player, Bayer, is having second thoughts. It's GM hybrid Liberty Link is resulting in quite a few headaches. It's quite enjoyable to read the Good News stories (courtesy of Bayer LibertyLink News Room) as opposed to the avalanche of court cases the company is losing in the USA and additional court cases being filed (source).
Significantly Bayer has suspended introduction of GM rice hybrids in Brazil according to foodfirst.org.

The Bad News
GRAIN has 2 significant reports, one mentioning how poor performing Vietnamese hybrids are, the other on how flood aid is being used in Pakistan to push hybrid (wheat) seed.