Saturday, January 14, 2012

Winners and losers

Losing out
Far from a happy new year, Thailand's rice exporters are expecting tough times. The Bangkok Post reported on the the third of January how the nation will be facing increased competition from none other than Vietnam and Cambodia:
'He [Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Exporters Association (TREA)] said Hom Mali rice also faced competition from Cambodian fragrant rice, which is sold at over $800 a tonne [as opposed to $1100 for Hom Mali]. The Cambodian rice has a comparable quality to Thai rice in terms of aroma and appearance'.
Adding to their woes, Thailand has 'lost' a couple of million tonnes of rice. The Bangkok Post (6 January 2012) reports that the Thai government is short of 5 million tonnes which they had expected to be part of the 10 million tonnes mortgage scheme. As exporters and millers are also reporting low stocks, the question is where is all the rice? Supposedly intelligent answers can be forwarded to the Thai government.

And on the horizon, possible lower prices? An indication that high commodity prices may not sustain is given by Bloomberg (12-01-2011) which reports on dropping global prices for corn, wheat and soy. Will rice follow? Logic says yes, as farmers respond positively to price incentives, demand stagnates and governments worldwide announce increased stocks. With the exception of Thailand that is ...

Winners?
Cambodia on the other hand seems to churning out major strides in both production as well as export.
Rice output from Cambodia has increased despite wide-spread flooding. An upturn of 2% is on the cards according to the Phnom Penh Post (26-12-2011). The same publication (13 January 2012) reported rising milled rice exports from 40,000 tonnes in 2010 to 100,000 in 2011.
An example? TTY Corporation which has long been an investor in Cambodia's rural sector, seems to have cornered the China-Cambodia rice trade after receiving permission to export up to 200,000 tonnes during 2012. So states the Phnom Penh Post (30-12-2011). In the age of free trade when one nation is seeking to access virtually every natural resource available, why ponder about such tedious things as official approval?

And more is in the pipeline. In the Phnom Penh Post (2 January 2011) a report that Hainan Agpro Inc intends to invest
'$500 million in Cambodia's agriculture sector'.
Though these intentions seem to be limited to revving up the rice export potential of Cambodia, the company 'supported' by the local government of Hainan own expertise seems to be limited to tropical fruits.

Business as usual
Short of reporters, Thailand's Nation (27-12-2011) gives up space for Bayer CropScience to comment on the recent floods whereby they expect their fungicides to sell better. It also wants to help out: '
The company has offered a programme in the Central area whereby it recommends a certain chemical spraying method, which has been proved to increase yield by at least 10 per cent. The programme will encourage farmers to use the right quantity of chemical spray at the right time'.
But will they make a profit? Tying in with their cooperation, but not related to recent floods the company hopes to produce new hybrids with aasistance by the IRRI.
'The aim of the programme is to improve rice quality and yield'.
And is not to make a profit?


Payback? Commercial success for Philippines premier hybrid rice company, SL Agritech, could see it list on Manila's bourse. Businessworldonline notes the cash reaped will retire debts and assist foreign expansion. Hopefully they can count on the Philippine's continued subsidies, it certainly enhances their business model. Note how they count on Cambodia as a promising breeding ground ground for their venture ...

Just another note of caution. Lays, globally known for it's range of potato chips, is being sued by the brave Julie Gengo as lays seem to be claiming all their ingredients are 'natural' which in their belief includes GM soy and corn. Are rice hybrids natural?