Thursday, March 1, 2012

Going down

Answers to the drop
Despite all the suggestions to the opposite, exports of Cambodian rice seem to be declining.
An
article in the Phnom Penh Post (25 January 2012) reports 40% declines of milled rice, year on year for January 2012.
Partially, this is due to the easing of the market, as witnessed in lower global prices. Lower prices reflect changes in demand and supply, mostly because harvests in Vietnam and South Asia have been
good combined with bursting of the global growth bubble.
The article reports that Cambodia's 'competitors' have undercut the Kingdom's prices and it seems that more new lessons are needed to be learned, as witnessed with this citation:
“Look how different the price is. How can we export to the international market when the price changes so greatly?”
Quite. But this is all part of the game.
The price differential with the competitors is dropping in both relative as well in absolute sense, so buyers will seek to look for other ways to distinguish the to be bought product. Say quality. Ah, quality ....


A few weeks (14 February 2012) after this article, the Phnom Penh Post has another
write up on Cambodia's rice exports. Probably one of Cambodia's most knowledgeable expert on rice production in the Mekong Delta, Tim Purcell of ADI, corroborates above statements.
Other industry suggestions are the need for creating economies of scale.


In an
interview (PPP, 17 February 2012) with Royal ANZ bank CEO, he suggests government should involveitself in the sector with the creation of a marketing board (a down under solution?), which would be part of this economy of scale as well as an institute to initiate standards. Finance not so ...

Cross the border
A good article was featured in the New Mandala.
Focusing on Thai farmer's ability to cope with floods, it stated that despite the floods, rice production went up, as those paddy fields not affected saw much larger outputs. Farmers also sought financial compensation.
That said, the financial compensation was much lower than that what could be expected if the produce could be part of Thailand's rice mortgage scheme.
The article then looks at the sustainability of this mortgage scheme which has cost lower than expected, as the overall rice output dropped.
In a by-the-way message it also notes that exporters have seen drops of nearly 60% in export numbers.


A recent article in the Nation (17 February 2012) looks in more detail at the market circumstances.
Yes, pledges have been less than expected, but posts have been reset and the Thai government seems to be aiming for 10 million tonnes of stored produce so as to determine domestic and international prices.
However:
'They '[Thai exporters] question how the ministry can sell Thai premium-quality rice at such a high price when Vietnam's jasmine rice has almost the same quality in terms of glutinousness and aroma. In addition, Vietnam imports jasmine rice from Cambodia, which has same quality as Thai rice, for re-export'.
Visionary
Further afield. It seems that GE rice is the future. If one is to believe the new rice expertise of Bill Gates.
AFP has on record:
'"If you care about the poorest, you care about agriculture. We believe that it's possible for small farmers to double and in some cases even triple their yields in the next 20 years while preserving the land," Gates said'.
Well, the past has clearly indicated that yield gains hardly ever fall to small farmers. And Mr Gates illustrates his case with:
'Another key development is the use of satellite technology developed by defence departments to document data about individual fields, ...'.
He continues to ventilate his expertise. On the issue of land investments that are referred to by their critics as "land grabbing", he said:
'It's not actually possible to grab the land. People don't put it on boats and take it back to the Middle East.
"If we could have clear guidelines there could be more land deals and overall it could be very beneficial... The truth is the person who is most at risk on a land deal is the person who is putting the money in'.
But kicking someone off one's own land is surely land grabbing?

Other issues of vision, possibly a lacl of? A report of the lack of seeds which may contribute to lower production figures in Cambodia's future. Demand seems to be outstripping CARDI's ability to produce seeds, with the private sector not yet clear on whether or not they are stepping in to meet the increased demand.