The ongoing saga of the Thai rice pledging holds the global rice export market in it's grips, so much is clear. Everybody expects prices to drop, th question is when?
In the meantime what will we learn from reading on? The rice pledging is stretching it's physical limits, Cambodia's exports are stalling but might take off (once more?), hybrid rice is over it's peak in Bangladesh.
But the most noteworthy news concerning rice may well be the scientists fight. In the left corner are all those that are left rosy by the back braking efforts of rice farmers world wide and on the right are the scientists looking down on the practices of those farmers.
'Piqued over loosing out to an Indian farmer who beat his world record by harvesting 22.4 tonnes of rice per hector, a top Chinese scientist known as the "father of hybrid rice" has questioned the feat, terming it as "fake".It is "120 per cent fake [a fake in reverse?]", Yuan Longping, who held the record earlier by growing 19.4 tonnes of rice in 2011, was quoted as saying by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post'.
Source the Financial Express (Feb. 21).
In this Mr. Longping seems piqued by an article in the Guardian
(Feb. 16):
'Kumar, a shy young farmer in Nalanda district of India's poorest state Bihar, had – using only farmyard manure and without any herbicides – grown an astonishing 22.4 tonnes of rice on one hectare of land. This was a world record and with rice the staple food of more than half the world's population of seven billion, big news. It beat not just the 19.4 tonnes achieved by the "father of rice", the Chinese agricultural scientist Yuan Longping, but the World Bank-funded scientists at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines, and anything achieved by the biggest European and American seed and GM companies'.
As
said the fight/discourse is more amusing than the actual discrepancy.
Thai tales
Wishful
thinking is a government policy in Thailand. Proof:
'Rice shipments from Thailand are poised to surge 15 per cent this year to help the country win back the top-exporter slot. Government sales are accelerating from its record stockpiles, an industry group said Wednesday'.
However the sales will be obligatory, what with the
storage scheme tying up both capital and storage space. It also notes
that the baht is rising meaning even lower returns. From the Bangkok Post (Jan. 31).
Not everybody shares the optimism. Therefore they must regard an article in the Bangkok Post (Feb. 18) concerning doubts raised by rice traders as a let down:
'The government expects to deliver 2.5 million tonnes of rice through government-to-government (G2G) contracts this year amid scepticism from the private sector that the goal is daunting, given the relatively high price of Thai rice and burgeoning supplies. "The target can be achieved but only in the case that the government sells its rice stock at loss," said Sompong Kitireanglarp, president of the rice exporter Ponglarp Co Ltd'.
Despite Thailand's assertion that they may well sell most of their stock, the Bangkok Post (Feb. 8) quotes the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) as fearing the lack of storage space:
'The FAO said the country may be running out of room to store the staple.Milled holdings may jump 40 per cent to 18.2 million (metric) tonnes in 2013, the Rome-based United Nations agency said in a report Friday on the global rice market. The reserves, which averaged 5.4 million tonnes a year between 2008-2010, have increased from 7.8 million tonnes in 2011, according to the report.There may be a "looming shortage of storage space," the agency said. "Government stock-release plans have progressed slowly, further aggravating the supply situation for an export sector that is faced with little offshore demand," it said'.
It also noted how the pledging
scheme was helping neighbouring nations exports; but not in the intended
way:
'The rice-purchase scheme has elevated local prices, prompted increased production and "fostered a considerable rise in unofficial inflows" from neighboring countries, the FAO said in the report. An estimated 750,000 tonnes in unofficial shipments was moved in, up from 400,000 tonnes a year earlier, it said'.
This may explain why Cambodian exports are
failing to rise (see below) ...
And a minor note:
'The World Bank estimated the total cost may be as much as 440 billion baht ($14.8 billion) in 2012-2013, compared with 376 billion baht or about 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product the previous year'.
Other drawbacks rising, for instance the failure to maintain quality:
'A Democrat MP Thursday sliced open a bag of the government's pledged rice in parliament in a bid to demonstrate shoddy quality control of the stored paddy.
Warong Dejkitvikrom, the MP for Phitsanulok, said the rice, retrieved from Surin, was brown and rotten.
His display in the House drew protests from government lawmakers.
The government will not be able to maintain the quality of the pledged rice, Mr Warong said, questioning the Commerce Ministry's handling of the programme'.
The (typical) government reply:
'Mr Nattawut said the government is trying to maintain rice quality.There are huge quantities of stored rice and it is impossible to ensure all the rice is in perfect condition, he said.Mr Nattawut fired back at Mr Warong, asking how he gained access to the government's warehouse to take the sack of rice.He accused Mr Warong of trespassing and said he would instruct the Internal Trade Department to lodge a police complaint against him'.
! Bangkok Post (Feb. 8) includes nearly 50 comments ...
Then we have troubles in the cassave guarantee programme in Thailand (Bangkok Post, Feb. 20). Would this be a mirror of the rice pledging schedule.
'Police have pressed embezzlement charges against three firms accused of stealing cassava under the government's pledging scheme.aeng Isan Agriculture Ltd's manager Kittipong Sanvarangkul, Chalobon Enterprise's manager Sakarin Ratana and Thong Fah Trading Ltd's manager Attaporn Pansa-ard were summoned Tuesday to Muang Buri Ram station.Their companies were accused of stealing 34,000 tonnes of cassava, worth more than 250 million baht, under the government's produce pledging scheme between 2011 and 2012'.
Regional
A side note, Myanmar is yet again another country thriving off Thai woes:
'The Commerce Ministry expects the volume of rice export will hit the highest in 60 years with metric tonnes of 1.5 million for this year'.
So reports elevenmyanmar (Feb. 14).
Another country wishing to cut into Thailand's export market is apparently Laos. The Vientiane Times (Feb. 13) reports:
'The government is aiming to boost rice yields so the crop can be exported, but while harvests are improving, Lao farmers have been unable to reach the targets set in recent years....Despite the shortfall, the government has continued to set ambitious goals by adding 200,000 tonnes to the target yield each year.This means the target for this fiscal year is 3.8 million tonnes; in 2013-14 it is 4 million; and in 2014-15 it is 4.2 million tonnes.Laos aims to become a rice exporter over the next decade if it can maintain current grain production and consumption growth rates, according to an Asian Development Bank funded study'.
'Natural disasters and a shortage of seeds have caused rice production in Laos to miss government targets for the second consecutive year – dealing a blow to its hopes of becoming a rice-exporting nation'.So how far off the mark?
'Laos produced 2.7 million tons of rice in 2012, 10,000 tons short of the official target set, according to official figures'.!
Passé?
Hybrid rice is over the hill? The Financial Express (Feb. 19, Bangladesh version) reports that the acreage of hybrid rice in Bangladesh has dropped by nearly half since 2008. The lesson learnt (or not):
'"The farmers are not interested to produce hybrid rice as its market value is much lower compared to traditional high yielding variety (HYV) and indigenous varieties. Consumers don't like its sticky test", he [key official at the Field Service Wing of DAE (Department of Agriculture Extension)] said'.
The Phnom Penh Post (4 Feb.) has an article
doubting whether Cambodia is profiting from the Thai pledging scheme
and it's massive storing and thus leading to lower thai exports for
higher prices which on the face it should benefit Official Cambodian
exports. Note the word official. The porous border means higher prices
and more profits for unofficial exports to Thai ware houses. It does
note:
'According to Renne Outh, owner of Mega Green Imex Cambodia, Thai rice exporters have already been entering Cambodia to export rice from here'.
Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 8) features an article on the cooperative US company Akra Group
(A boutique investment firm for international multiparty transactions)
and a deal it signed with a rice mill. However it´s unclear what the
deal entails and what, if any, effects will occur.
Luckily there is an earlier article by Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 19):
'Tightening the Cambodian command of the market, next year alone, Akra plans to increase milled rice exports by between 100,000 and 300,000 tonnes....Farmers and millers are invited to buy shares in the company, which then guarantees to buy their rice at world market price, mill the rice, package it and sell into to markets such as the US under the universal branding of Akra rice.The profits would then be fed back into the co-op, with the member-elected board determining whether this money goes directly back to shareholders or is used to further invest in infrastructure.Akra will also sell inputs such as seed, fertiliser and heavy machinery at cost, or lend machinery to those who cannot afford it, and pay for inspectors from foreign markets to certify the product'.
Opening open doors. Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 20) gives the opportunity to open open doors:
'Cambodia could drastically enhance its rice yields by improving its irrigation infrastructure and convincing farmers to adopt modern agriculture practices, researchers said in a study'.
Well, fancy that. Though the published article merits itself in scientific approach, the findings seem too obvious. And it references itself withSurvey of Rice Cropping Systems in Kampong Chhnang Province, Cambodia;
Kleinhenz, V., Chea, S., Hun, N., 2013. Rice Science, 20(3). Possibly meant as an upcoming article as Issue 3 isn't expected for another 6 months ....
Manipulation is another aspect of Cambodia's rice cultivation requiring urgent attention, though the Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 19) questions the market principle, it seems:
'Farmers have expressed concern over local brokers’ manipulation of the market during harvest season, reducing buying prices for farmers who have no access to actual market rates'.
Prices always drop at harvest
time and rise thereafter, seems simple logic not price manipulation.
Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 5) concludes there is much optimism in this new year for traders and millers:
'Rice millers and exporters are optimistic that they will see an increase in exports this year after they received higher orders toward the end of 2012, producers said yesterday.Toch Tepech, president of the Svay Rieng Rice Millers Association, told the Post he had exported over 1,000 tonnes, mainly fragrant rice, to world markets last year. Most of the exports went to Europe.“This year, I believe exports from my rice mill will increase 100 per cent because there was lower export last year,” he said. So far, he has already received numerous orders in 2013, he added'.
This message is echoed two weeks later. The Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 22) reports a 165% surge for January. It unfortunate fails to mention why the surge. With the very low figures, could this be a one-off?
Other products on the up are cashews.
'Cambodia's cashew-nut exports increased sharply from 443 tonnes in 2011 to 4,453 tonnes last year, according to the Ministry of Commerce. But observers say these figures do not reflect reality, as a large percentage of exports had not been recorded'.
Statistics (Phnom Penh Post, Feb. 6)?
