Quitters

Little, precious little to share, barely warrants a posting. 

Probably the most notable would be non-agricultural: free press in Cambodia folding in the face of dictatorship, so expect more reports to toe the government policies rather than being market conform or informative.

source

Even when the press were free, we were constantly receiving very much non-critical messages as the following. The Phnom Penh Post (May 1):

'The total export of agricultural products rose to 5.13 million tonnes last year, up from 4.7 million tonnes the year before, a sign that the sector was on the right track according to Agriculture Minister Veng Sokhon.
Speaking on Monday at the release of the ministry’s 2017 annual report, Sokhon said that while farming in Cambodia had seen remarkable growth in the past few years, more work needed to be done to increase exports, ensure crops were processed in the country and increase compliance with health and safety standards.
...
Rice exports grew by 17.3 percent to reach 635,697 tonnes last year, while rubber also expanded by 30.14 percent to reach 188,832 tonnes, according to the report'.

More but similar from Xinhua (May 2):

'Cambodia produced 10.5 million tons of paddy rice in 2017, up 5.7 percent year-on-year, Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen said on Wednesday.
With the amount of production last year, besides local consumptions, the country would have some 5.56 million tons of un-husked rice, or 3.56 million tons of milled rice, left over for exports this year, he said during the closing ceremony of the annual conference of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries'.

Could we miss what follows (Phnom Penh Post, May 9)?

'Cambodian rice exports have dramatically declined over the past four months compared to the same period last year, causing significant concern for the rice industry even as plans are in the works to expand exports by thousands of tonnes, according to government officials.
The data, released by the General Department of Agriculture yesterday, show that total rice exports in the first four months of this year totalled 197,354 tonnes, compared to the 212,394 tonnes exported in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 7 percent'.

Will the Phnom Penh Post (Apr. 23) be allowed to report from other sources, as whar follows doesn't seem to toe the national line:

'Cambodia’s rice production and exports will likely continue to grow this year and next year despite low milling rates, buoyed by strong demand from China, according to a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In the report released last week, the USDA forecasted a 4 percent year-over-year increase in rice production during the 2017-2018 harvest seasons, estimating the total haul at 8.1 million tonnes.
...
The rice production estimates are similar to those reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) last month.
Also included in the FAO report was an estimate that 44 percent of Cambodia’s total rice exports would be smuggled out of the country this year, with total legal and illegal rice exports increasing by 5 percent to reach 1.35 million tonnes of rice'.

Even Singapore notes (Business Times, 3 may) that the royal oxen predict a bounty harvest ahead. 

'Cambodia's royal oxen predicted a bountiful harvest of rice, the country's biggest crop, as well as corn and beans at an ancient royal plowing ceremony on Thursday.
...
During the ceremony, which signals the start of the new rice growing season, two oxen ate 95 per cent of the rice and corn on offer and 80 per cent of beans presented in ornate bowls'.

Will the oxen fall foul of sensors in the future?

The Khmer Times (May 9) with some niche (?) news:

'The government yesterday announced that a new rice variety known as ‘japonica’ is officially available for farming after having passed performance tests.
Officially called ‘oryza sativa japonica’, the rice variety will be planted in 200,000 hectares around the country, and will be shipped primarily to China, where it is very popular, Agriculture Minister Veng Sakhon said Monday.
Tests on japonica and its adaptability to the Cambodian soil have been conducted in Kampong Speu province, after the ministry signed an agreement in January with two Chinese laboratories, Hunan Hybrid Rice Research Center and Jiangsu Long An Agricultural Technology, to study the grain jointly.
...
“As planned, 200,000 hectares of land will be used for planting japonica seeds, producing up to six tonnes of paddy rice per hectare,” he said, although he failed to go into details regarding the provinces where the plantations will be located.'

Trust

No regional bizniz it seems so let's look at some other alternatives. The Khmer Times (Apr. 12)

'Demand for Cambodian cashew nuts remains robust in 2018, with the price of the commodity in the global market having experienced moderate growth in recent months, according to an official from the Ministry of Agriculture.
Kong Pheach, director of the agro-industry department at the ministry, told Khmer Times that the price of cashews is higher than last year, while production of the commodity has also expanded. Demand continues to rise, he said, explaining that more plantations are popping up around the country to meet it.
...
“Almost 95 percent of Cambodian raw cashew nuts were shipped to Vietnam. Only one or two percent of our cashew exports were processed,” Mr Saran (Song Saran, CEO of Amru Rice and founder of the Cambodian Agriculture Cooperative Cooperation (CCAC)) said'.

The Khmer Times (Apr. 28):

'Exports of rubber rose moderately during the first three months of the year, as the market for the commodity continues to be hampered by unstable prices.
During the first quarter of 2018, rubber exports grew by just 880 tonnes, reaching a total of 25,416 tonnes. During that same period, the price of the commodity decreased.
...
Lim Heng, vice-president of An Mady Group, expressed similar concerns.
“With the cost of production being very high in Cambodia, a low price is bad news for farmers and producers, who won’t be able to make a profit,” he said.
In Thailand and Vietnam, the price of the commodity is not affecting the industry as badly because the costs of production is much lower, Mr Heng said, explaining that in these countries the government grants tax cuts to farmers and producers of the commodity.
In 2017, Cambodia exported more than 190,000 tonnes of rubber latex, an increase of 30 percent year-on-year. Vietnam, China, Singapore and Malaysia were the biggest buyers.
Cambodia is the sixteenth largest rubber latex producer in the world'.

The Khmer Times (May 9):

'The government will issue a standard for the type of mango known as ‘keo romeat’, a move that seeks to bolster sales abroad as well as consumer trust on the product, a high-ranking official revealed yesterday'.

Fight

The ongoing saga of the Thai rice pledging holds the global rice export market in it's grips, so much is clear. Everybody expects prices to drop, th question is when? 
In the meantime what will we learn from reading on? The rice pledging is stretching it's physical limits, Cambodia's exports are stalling but might take off (once more?), hybrid rice is over it's peak in Bangladesh.

But the most noteworthy news concerning rice may well be the scientists fight. In the left corner are all those that are  left rosy by the back braking efforts of rice farmers world wide and on the right are the scientists looking down on the practices of those farmers.

'Piqued over loosing out to an Indian farmer who beat his world record by harvesting 22.4 tonnes of rice per hector, a top Chinese scientist known as the "father of hybrid rice" has questioned the feat, terming it as "fake".

It is "120 per cent fake [a fake in reverse?]", Yuan Longping, who held the record earlier by growing 19.4 tonnes of rice in 2011, was quoted as saying by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post'.

Source the Financial Express (Feb. 21). 

In this Mr. Longping seems piqued by an article in the Guardian (Feb. 16): 

'Kumar, a shy young farmer in Nalanda district of India's poorest state Bihar, had – using only farmyard manure and without any herbicides – grown an astonishing 22.4 tonnes of rice on one hectare of land. This was a world record and with rice the staple food of more than half the world's population of seven billion, big news. It beat not just the 19.4 tonnes achieved by the "father of rice", the Chinese agricultural scientist Yuan Longping, but the World Bank-funded scientists at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines, and anything achieved by the biggest European and American seed and GM companies'.

As said the fight/discourse is more amusing than the actual discrepancy.

Thai tales

Wishful thinking is a government policy in Thailand. Proof: 

'Rice shipments from Thailand are poised to surge 15 per cent this year to help the country win back the top-exporter slot. Government sales are accelerating from its record stockpiles, an industry group said Wednesday'. 

However the sales will be obligatory, what with the storage scheme tying up both capital and storage space. It also notes that the baht is rising meaning even lower returns. From the Bangkok Post (Jan. 31).

Not everybody shares the optimism. Therefore they must regard an article in the Bangkok Post (Feb. 18) concerning doubts raised by rice traders as a let down: 

'The government expects to deliver 2.5 million tonnes of rice through government-to-government (G2G) contracts this year amid scepticism from the private sector that the goal is daunting, given the relatively high price of Thai rice and burgeoning supplies. "The target can be achieved but only in the case that the government sells its rice stock at loss," said Sompong Kitireanglarp, president of the rice exporter Ponglarp Co Ltd'.

Despite Thailand's assertion that they may well sell most of their stock, the Bangkok Post (Feb. 8) quotes the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) as fearing the lack of storage space: 

'The FAO said the country may be running out of room to store the staple.

Milled holdings may jump 40 per cent to 18.2 million (metric) tonnes in 2013, the Rome-based United Nations agency said in a report Friday on the global rice market. The reserves, which averaged 5.4 million tonnes a year between 2008-2010, have increased from 7.8 million tonnes in 2011, according to the report.

There may be a "looming shortage of storage space," the agency said. "Government stock-release plans have progressed slowly, further aggravating the supply situation for an export sector that is faced with little offshore demand," it said'. 

It also noted how the pledging scheme was helping neighbouring nations exports; but not in the intended way: 

'The rice-purchase scheme has elevated local prices, prompted increased production and "fostered a considerable rise in unofficial inflows" from neighboring countries, the FAO said in the report. An estimated 750,000 tonnes in unofficial shipments was moved in, up from 400,000 tonnes a year earlier, it said'.

This may explain why Cambodian exports are failing to rise (see below) ...

And a minor note: 

'The World Bank estimated the total cost may be as much as 440 billion baht ($14.8 billion) in 2012-2013, compared with 376 billion baht or about 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product the previous year'.

Other drawbacks rising, for instance the failure to maintain quality:

'A Democrat MP Thursday sliced open a bag of the government's pledged rice in parliament in a bid to demonstrate shoddy quality control of the stored paddy.
Warong Dejkitvikrom, the MP for Phitsanulok, said the rice, retrieved from Surin, was brown and rotten.
His display in the House drew protests from government lawmakers.
The government will not be able to maintain the quality of the pledged rice, Mr Warong said, questioning the Commerce Ministry's handling of the programme'. 

The (typical) government reply: 

'Mr Nattawut said the government is trying to maintain rice quality.

There are huge quantities of stored rice and it is impossible to ensure all the rice is in perfect condition, he said.

Mr Nattawut fired back at Mr Warong, asking how he gained access to the government's warehouse to take the sack of rice.

He accused Mr Warong of trespassing and said he would instruct the Internal Trade Department to lodge a police complaint against him'. 

! Bangkok Post (Feb. 8) includes nearly 50 comments ...

Then we have troubles in the cassave guarantee programme in Thailand (Bangkok Post, Feb. 20). Would this be a mirror of the rice pledging schedule.

'Police have pressed embezzlement charges against three firms accused of stealing cassava under the government's pledging scheme.

aeng Isan Agriculture Ltd's manager Kittipong Sanvarangkul, Chalobon Enterprise's manager Sakarin Ratana and Thong Fah Trading Ltd's manager Attaporn Pansa-ard were summoned Tuesday to Muang Buri Ram station.

Their companies were accused of stealing 34,000 tonnes of cassava, worth more than 250 million baht, under the government's produce pledging scheme between 2011 and 2012'.

Regional

A side note, Myanmar is yet again another country thriving off Thai woes: 

'The Commerce Ministry expects the volume of rice export will hit the highest in 60 years with metric tonnes of 1.5 million for this year'.

So reports elevenmyanmar (Feb. 14).

Another country wishing to cut into Thailand's export market is apparently Laos. The Vientiane Times (Feb. 13) reports: 

'The government is aiming to boost rice yields so the crop can be exported, but while harvests are improving, Lao farmers have been unable to reach the targets set in recent years.

...

Despite the shortfall, the government has continued to set ambitious goals by adding 200,000 tonnes to the target yield each year.

This means the target for this fiscal year is 3.8 million tonnes; in 2013-14 it is 4 million; and in 2014-15 it is 4.2 million tonnes.

Laos aims to become a rice exporter over the next decade if it can maintain current grain production and consumption growth rates, according to an Asian Development Bank funded study'.

Laos has it's own problems with meeting government goals (Bangkok Post, Jan. 25):

'Natural disasters and a shortage of seeds have caused rice production in Laos to miss government targets for the second consecutive year – dealing a blow to its hopes of becoming a rice-exporting nation'. 

So how far off the mark? 

'Laos produced 2.7 million tons of rice in 2012, 10,000 tons short of the official target set, according to official figures'.

!
 
Passé?

Hybrid rice is over the hill? The Financial Express (Feb. 19, Bangladesh version) reports that the acreage of hybrid rice in Bangladesh has dropped by nearly half since 2008. The lesson learnt (or not): 

'"The farmers are not interested to produce hybrid rice as its market value is much lower compared to traditional high yielding variety (HYV) and indigenous varieties. Consumers don't like its sticky test", he [key official at the Field Service Wing of DAE (Department of Agriculture Extension)] said'.

Cambodia

The Phnom Penh Post (4 Feb.)  has an article doubting whether Cambodia is profiting from the Thai pledging scheme and it's massive storing and thus leading to lower thai exports for higher prices which on the face it should benefit Official Cambodian exports. Note the word official. The porous border means higher prices and more profits for unofficial exports to Thai ware houses. It does note:

'According to Renne Outh, owner of Mega Green Imex Cambodia, Thai rice exporters have already been entering Cambodia to export rice from here'.

Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 8) features an article on the cooperative US company Akra Group (A boutique investment firm for international multiparty transactions) and a deal it signed with a rice mill. However it´s unclear what the deal entails and what, if any, effects will occur. 

Luckily there is an earlier article by Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 19): 

'Tightening the Cambodian command of the market, next year alone, Akra plans to increase milled rice exports by between 100,000 and 300,000 tonnes.

...

Farmers and millers are invited to buy shares in the company, which then guarantees to buy their rice at world market price, mill the rice, package it and sell into to markets such as the US under the universal branding of Akra rice.

The profits would then be fed back into the co-op, with the member-elected board determining whether this money goes directly back to shareholders or is used to further invest in infrastructure.

Akra will also sell inputs such as seed, fertiliser and heavy machinery at cost, or lend machinery to those who cannot afford it, and pay for inspectors from foreign markets to certify the product'.

Opening open doors. Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 20) gives the opportunity to open open doors:

'Cambodia could drastically enhance its rice yields by improving its irrigation infrastructure and convincing farmers to adopt modern agriculture practices, researchers said in a study'. 

Well, fancy that. Though the published article merits itself in scientific approach, the findings seem too obvious. And it references itself withSurvey of Rice Cropping Systems in Kampong Chhnang Province, Cambodia; Kleinhenz, V., Chea, S., Hun, N., 2013. Rice Science, 20(3). Possibly meant as an upcoming article as Issue 3 isn't expected for another 6 months ....

Manipulation is another aspect of Cambodia's rice cultivation requiring urgent attention, though the Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 19) questions the market principle, it seems: 

'Farmers have expressed concern over local brokers’ manipulation of the market during harvest season, reducing buying prices for farmers who have no access to actual market rates'. 

Prices always drop at harvest time and rise thereafter, seems simple logic not price manipulation.

Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 5) concludes there is much optimism in this new year for traders and millers:

'Rice millers and exporters are optimistic that they will see an increase in exports this year after they received higher orders toward the end of 2012, producers said yesterday.

Toch Tepech, president of the Svay Rieng Rice Millers Association, told the Post he had exported over 1,000 tonnes, mainly fragrant rice, to world markets last year. Most of the exports went to Europe.

“This year, I believe exports from my rice mill will increase 100 per cent because there was lower export last year,” he said. So far, he has already received numerous orders in 2013, he added'.  

This message is echoed two weeks later. The Phnom Penh Post (Feb. 22) reports a 165% surge for January. It unfortunate fails to mention why the surge. With the very low figures, could this be a one-off? 

Other products on the up are cashews. 

'Cambodia's cashew-nut exports increased sharply from 443 tonnes in 2011 to 4,453 tonnes last year, according to the Ministry of Commerce. But observers say these figures do not reflect reality, as a large percentage of exports had not been recorded'. 

Statistics (Phnom Penh Post, Feb. 6)?

Wasted

The past month has seen little publicity concerning (hybrid) rice. 
The furore over the Thai rice mortgage scheme seems to have somewhat passed? Or has it just retreated to the shadows waiting for the inevitable: it's failure to post even a semblance of a profit?

Broke

Thai's pain has not translated to Cambodia's gain. 

Apparently broken rice is hindering exports:

'Exports of milled rice had fallen dramatically last year because of the poor quality of paddy rice, insiders said yesterday.

Milled-rice producers told the Post [Jan. 9] that a large amount of paddy rice broke'. 

So in 2011, exporters spoiled the market for the 2012 Cambodian rice exporters ... The article makes no reference as to how this could be addressed; it's a natural phenomena? 
It does add an antidote to the first statement (exports dropped?):

'According to the trade and promotion department of the Council for Development of Cambodia, companies exported 205,717 tonnes of rice in 2012, a rise of 1.9 per cent compared with the 201,899 tonnes exported in 2011'.

Weirder, an earlier article (Jan. 3) from the same source notes: 

'Cambodian milled rice exports to international markets grew only 2 per cent year-on-year, leading rice trading experts to express concern that the goal of exporting a million tonnes in 2015 cannot be accomplished'.

As if anyone has ever believed in reaching the figure ...

So exports are growing. But by how much? A week later in the same news source (Jan. 17): 

'Cambodia's total paddy rice output has grown more than 6 per cent in 2012 compared with 2011 because of an increase in paddy rice fields in the last season, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture released yesterday'.

So production is growing faster than (official) exports ...
The competition (Cambodia Daily, Jan. 18) has another twist on the story of slow expanding exports:

'Milled rice exports were “more than 200,000 tons,” Mr. Sarun [Agriculture Minister] said, without giving an exact figure. “Our exports have increased compared with 2011, but only slightly,” he added, pointing to the widely held expectation in 2012 that the flooding of the previous year, which destroyed swaths of rice paddy and drove up prices, would  be repeated.

In July, Prime Minister Hun Sen predicted that, as 2012 was the Chinese year of the dragon, there would be “big floods.”

“All of the rice millers and farmers thought that there was a huge flood coming, so rice millers did not export because they thought that the price of rice in the country would be high,” Mr. Sarun said'.

They seem to point out that due to possible price rises in the Cambodian market, millers reverted to storing their produce rather than exporting the produce.

It further includes this: 

'Yang Saing Koma, director of NGO the Cambodian Center for Study and Development in Agriculture, said the slow progress in exports of milled rice was more to do with Cambodia’s inexperience as a rice exporter.

“It’s a big goal, but Cambodia needs to learn,” he said, adding that more investment in rice mills and credit for farmers was helping.

Mr. Saing Koma also said that the price farmers had received for normal rice, as opposed to the more expensive fragrant rice, had fallen this year, from more than 1,000 riel, or about $0.25, to only 800 riel, per kg.

However, Mr. Saing Koma said the drop in price was more likely due to the international rice market rather than a surplus created by  rice millers hoarding their product.

“Normally, many Vietnamese come to buy paddy rice in Cambodia,” but last year, Vietnamese exports had fallen as India and Pakistan upped their output, keeping prices low globally, he said'.

So lessons are being learnt. But does that mean that short-cuts are a no-no? Or that hoarding doesn't pay off (sometimes)?

CEDAC itself though remains optimistic as it has found cash to invest in organic rice mills (Phnom Penh Post, Jan. 4). 
What is the difference with non-organic rice mills? A sound-byte: 

'Cambodia had an advantage over neighbouring countries with organic rice farming because its organic milled rice could be sold for $100 a tonne more than in neighbouring countries, he [Son Kounthor, president of the Rural Development Bank (RDB)] said'.

And there I thought that higher prices actually were a disadvantage ...

Unfortunatly ignorance is what policy makers believe in. A failed initiative set to take off? 

'He [Mao Thora, Secretary of State for the Ministry of Commerce] said the OPM would help to provide paddy-related information and help to provide some services to enhance the quality of farmers’ paddy, such as the establishment of dry ovens or enabling traders to gather at one place where the paddy’s price would be displayed'. 

Umm, so what is the difference? A better opportunity for the government to regulate (= not open) the trade and demand kick-backs? The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 25) continues in this rather laughable article:

'Him Kortieth, communications officer at the Cambodian Centre for Study and Development in Agriculture, said the open paddy market was a new initiative but it was not really important for farmers whether the OPM was set up downtown or in the province because the cost of farmers’ transportation would be higher and they did not know the competitiveness of traders.

Kortieth said the real challenge for farmers was the fact that the government lacked capital to buy their paddy rice output, resulting in traders from other countries  dropping the price of local paddy rice.

He said Cambodian farmers had no choice but to sell out their paddy rice because they needed money to support their families'.

Response

The Bangkok Post (Jan. 24) reports Thai rice exports dropping to a dramatic 12 year low. 

The government remains optimistic:

'The ministry believes that Thailand will export over 500,000 tons rice by the end of this month, thanks to the upcoming Chinese New Year Festival; when people stock up on rice for the New Year occasion. Judging by the rising volume, the ministry anticipates Thailand’s rice export to be over 8.5 million tons by the end of 2013, compared to 6.9 million tons last year'.

Well, maybe the government can wait and tell it's shareholders (the public in general) that everything will be allright, but Thai rice exporters don't have the same opportunities. No deals means the need to look for other sources of income. The rice exporters lament (Nation, Jan. 17): 

'Last year was the poorest on record for Thai rice exports and this year could be even worse due to high prices under the pledging scheme, which has ruined Thai rice's competitiveness in the world market.

"The more exporters take orders, the more they incur losses. Rice trading is now considered a 'sunset' industry because of the high costs, low margins and intervention by the government," Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said last week.

According to the association, exports of Thai rice, excluding white rice, plunged by 39 per cent last year to 5 million tonnes from 8.2 million tonnes in 2011. Jasmine rice was 1.8 million-1.9 million tonnes. Total exports reached 6.9 million tonnes last year, compared with 10.5 million tonnes in 2011. Many exporters told The Nation (Jan. 14) their volumes and incomes dropped by an average of 20-30 per cent in 2012 and their performance this year would decline further because the high subsidy scheme has been extended'.

The once profitable rice export sector is now struggling and having to seek other ways to make ends meet. Example: 

'The survey found that exports of Asia Golden Rice Co, one of Thailand's biggest exporters, declined from 1.9 million tonnes in 2011 to 1.19 million last year. The company has struggled to retain its customer base by trading rice from other countries such as Vietnam and Pakistan'. 

Note what the association itself stated six months prior: 

'Somkiat Makcayathorn, who sits on the association's board, said Thailand was now entering the final phase of the rice industry's failure, with exports falling continuously and rice-quality development having been ignored.

Meanwhile, rice in the government's stockpiles is deteriorating in quality and it is inevitable that Thailand will soon face huge losses when it releases the stocks, he said'.

Surprisingly (or not) the rice pledging system is driving the Thai exporters out. The Phnom Penh Post (Jan. 24) notes that CP Intertrade (just one of the CP companies, involved with promoting hybrid rice in Thailand) will invest in Cambodian rice mill. Twenty million $  might be invested.

Even the World Bank are worried about the pledging (Nation, Dec. 20):

'The World Bank has expressed concern over the government's rice-price support scheme due to its high cost and large losses, while predicting that the global prices of rice and rubber - both major Thai export commodities - will likely fall next year'.

Meanwhile ..., Johnson & Johnson to produce their own palm oil in Thailand? So states the Nation (Dec. 23): 

'Johnson & Johnson, the world's leading health care company, won the purchasing deal of RSPO certificates under the Book and Claim system* from Thailand's four independent oil palm smallholders' groups, the first in the world to be certified with the RSPO standard. Through the purchase of the RSPO certificates, direct support is provided to small scale farmers and sustainable palm oil production'.

Peppered up
Other commodities from Cambodia. 

• It seems  pepper is on the up:

  'Kampot pepper yields are expected to increase significantly in the first harvest since gaining Geographic Indicator status in April 2010, as increased demand from exporters drives up prices. Output this season is expected to surge by 17 per cent, from 23 tonnes in the last harvest to an estimated 27 tonnes this season'.

  What's more pepper prices are also going up, a double whammy? 

• The Phnom Penh Post (Jan. 2) also mentions coffee production gains in Mondulkiri. 
• Phnom Penh Sugar opens it's factory (PPP, Dec. 28). 
• The Phnom Penh Post (Jan. 25) has an article on Cambodia's prospectives  on future corn. This as a reaction to the Thai authorities opening up their borders to imports from both Cambodia and Lao. Though the choice of the article is interesting, they fail to capture what it really means for the Cambodia corn growers. On the other hand a promise is just that, a promise. So if prices will rise, the Thai will import. Will they drop, then the borders will be closed. It's a bit of a gamble. Why shouldn't Cambodia produce it's own animal feeds?

Agenda
Finally back to subject, hybrid rice. 
IRRI tries to set the agenda by giving an overview of the state of GM rice (Jan. 8). It notes that it doesn't want to polarize the discussion, but seems very keen to enable GM rice techniques. On the one hand it mentions that GM rice despite decades of research still has not produced a commercial viable variety. It does however mention that GM research must be done to meet farmers demands:

'IRRI’s approach to its GM rice R&D is based on a premise that genetic modification has the potential to safely deliver to rice farmers and consumers a number of benefits that cannot be achieved through other breeding methods'.

On the other hand the high tech involved will ultimately mean that if higher producing varieties are released (or varieties with much better financial returns), the rice seed sector will wield the power over the rice trade. From the hybrid sector we have discovered that often enough commercial companies involved are less scrupulous, so why this would not be the same for GM rice?

Interetsing is to see the following quote:

'“This is exactly the sort of innovative scientific research that the [UK] Prime Minister was calling for at the Hunger Summit at Downing Street,” said Lynne Featherstone, UK Parliamentary undersecretary of state for international development. “This new funding will enable IRRI to begin producing prototypes of this ‘super rice’ for testing. This could prove a critical breakthrough in feeding an ever-growing number of hungry mouths.”'

It just proves that poor informed policy makers are not limited to just Cambodia. Hungry mouths are not increasing, nor are they benefited with more rice. Most hungry mouths are rural producers with insufficient land or opportunities to expand their produce. Higher productivity only means lower prices, hitting smaller producer more. Higher prices on the other hand correlates to more production ...

An interesting blog entry on hybrid rice and Dutch agri bank Rabobank. It notes how this bank is getting involved in promoting hybrid rice in India, where it stresses that productivity increases by 15-20% but fails to mention the downside, i.e. the need for increased groundwater use. The sole reason for promoting hybrid rice is to promote big business: bigger is better for shareholders.

Funnily (or not) a quote from Yuan Longping:

'Yuan said squandering food was unforgivable, especially because China had to pull out all stops to provide enough food for its 1.3 billion people due to its limited arable land. "It was difficult to improve rice's output, but after we did we found the food was being wasted," he said'.

What goes up ...

Prices down?

Indications are that rice prices are continuing to drop. The FAO suggests prices have dropped by 5-20% in the first half of this year on an annual basis. 

The only exception is Thailand's export rice prices which went up, though it is definitely certain that the Thai exports prices lead the market. More players in the market as well as higher global stocks have lead to the lessening of the significance of Thai rice.

Despite this, Bloomberg (June 5, 2012) do expect Thailand to regain it's position of major exporter, if only because the next harvests spurred on by the higher domestic prices will result in record output; the government will have to take a hit and sell it's stock if only to ensure the ability to buy and store the future crop. 

In a by-line it also quotes USDA as mentioning that 

'Cambodia's shipments' 

may reach 950,000 ton, up 19%. 

This may come as a surprise, as the Cambodian premier has wished that by 2015 1 million tonnes may be exported, a wish many believe will not materialize ... 

Puts some perspectives on all statistics mentioned ...

Long-term

Despite this consumer rosy outlook, Yuan Longping expects rice breeding to ensure even higher outputs. In a recent speech he predicted that productivity from hybrids could still go up by another 10%. He also mentioned

'“To cope with the food problems, the country [China] must carry out proper land policies, introduce preferential policies for farmers, provide technology support and solve the issue of grain prices,” he added'.

I don't know what the issue of grain prices is, but in the neverending clogwheel of forcing farmers to accept lower prices for higher outputs, hybrid rice will continue to force smaller producers out, favouring the cash-richer farmers. Solving this issue can only take place if accepting that ceilings in productivity have been reached...

Cambodian challenges

Rice exporters face challenges seems to be newsworthy to the Phnom Penh Post (5 July 2012): 

'Pou Puy, president of the Cambodian Rice Millers Association, said that the export of Cambodia’s white rice faces challenges in terms of both quantity and competitive pricing, as exports of milled rice dropped about 35 per cent for the first half of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011'. 

Quantity, there's only that much that one can do, but competitive pricing? How can this be a challenge?

Other challenges? Increased funding. Why? Phnom Penh Post (28 June 2012) cites:

'"Baitong will increase its capital to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of fragrant unmilled rice, compared to last year’s 70,000 tonnes said Phou Puy, president of the Federation of Rice Millers Associations and the Baitong Rice Export Company.
Working capital would increase from US$28 million to $50 million this year as fragrant unmilled rice cost $450 per tonne, an increase from $400 per tonne he said'. 

Well, at least somebody is expecting prices to rise ....

Phnom Penh Post, 11 June 2012 names another two challenges:

 'Milled-rice exporters have called on the government to continue its efforts in reducing electricity and transportation costs, two of the main obstacles facing the government’s goal of exporting 1 million tonnes of milled rice by 2015'.

Government needs to work on this .... 

The article also mentions: 

'Although the government said the country would more than double its rice exports to 400,000 tonnes this year, experts have expressed misgivings about the figure as exports to Europe, Cambodia’s primary buyer, declined at the beginning of the year'.

The Alliance of Rice Producers and Exporters of Cambodia (ARPEC) has been formed (PPP, May 28 2012), a step in the right direction. However government involvement seems major, whereas an association should be independent especially as it needs to pressurize the government to make trade internationally more competitive ...

Other Thai issues
ASEAN integration means non-Thai entities are starting up business in Thailand and taking a slice of the Thai rice pie. The article in the Nation (june 15, 2012) is a bit odd, in that it fails to mention why this could be a problem, other than undercutting Thai government / Thai business interests:

'Although rice farming and trading are limited to Thais under the Foreign Business Act, many foreigners can easily rent or own land for raising rice and conducting a rice-trading business in the Kingdom," a rice trader said yesterday. At a Commerce Ministry seminar on creating a strategy linking local and global businesses, Thai rice exporters urged the government to protect Thai rice-cultivating areas and the trading business from alien residents by urgently checking the ownership of rice plantations and the certificates for running a trading business.
...
Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said some Thai rice exporters are now not Thai, while some foreign rice exporters want to join the association as members. She said Asean integration was a two-edged sword for the Thai rice industry, as it has encouraged Thai exporters to expand to other Asean nations, while foreign traders can easily penetrate the market here'.

Export news

• One hundred thousand tonnes destined for Indonesia (PPP, 28 June 2012).
• Phnom Penh Port will buy polishing equipment (PPP, 8 June 2012). 
• A rice mill for Takeo province, owned and operated by Canadia Bank (PPP, May 31, 2012).  A by line to a possible export deal with Guinea (PPP, May 2012):

  'An agreement for agricultural co-operation between Cambodia and Guinea was never followed through on, but the visit was hoped to expedite the co-operation. “[Our] two countries signed an agreement in 2008 for co-operation, especially on agricultural cooperation.
  But Guinea has not implemented it. This visit will encourage even more firm and active cooperation [firmer and more active than nothing?] on agricultural issues. It will be win-win for both countries,” Eang Sophallet said'.

The China trade
The Phnom Penh Post on June 7 notes:

'A 144-tonne shipment of Cambodian fragrant rice will leave Phnom Penh for Fuzhou, China on Saturday, the first Chinese order for the Kingdom’s milled rice after a recent government agreement was reached on Chinese regulation.
...
Reported regulatory issues have held back Cambodian rice shipments to China for more than a year, experts have said, some of whom maintained that the problem was Chinese red tape, not rice quality.
Rice millers have collected a stack of memoranda of understanding but the pseudo-agreements failed to translate into real trade.
...
Golden Rice president Sok Hach said his company sent a 48-tonne test run earlier in the year but failed to pass regulatory tests in the southern Chinese port of Shenzhen'.

On the same subject, PPP reported on June 1 2012:

'The Post reported last week that China approved local rice miller Golden Rice to export milled rice to China. A trial run the company sent to China earlier this year was refused by the Chinese government upon arrival in the southern port of Shenzhen.
Chan Tong Yves, secretary of state at the Ministry of Agriculture, said the ministry also has a quality testing laboratory, but it does not comply with the standards for exporting milled rice' [!]. 

On a final note, Cambodia needs Chinese cash for the rice trade: PPP (May 30, 2012):

'Cambodian government officials and private sector leaders have met with Chinese officials to negotiate a US$200 million loan for the development of Cambodia’s rice sector, an official said on Tuesday'.

Rice deals
With international prices for rice dropping, it is to be expected that the major importers are holding off on the orders already agreed on, while the importers seek to find better and more importantly cheaper deals.
Especially Cambodia, with little to offer other than cheap quantities, is likely to squeezed. On the one hand, importers of Cambodian rice have little to loose in the sense of loss of long term business relations, there are none. Business acumen means that Cambodia is being undercut, while Cambodia produce itself faces poor quality, higher costs in export processes and (due to capital constraints) higher financing costs, thus meaning the space to renegotiate prior deals is lacking.

So, it comes as no surprise that the Phnom Penh Post reports (3 April 2012) that China is stalling on Cambodian rice imports. Officially it is that the paperwork hasn't met the standards set. But this notorious Chinese deal breaker should be a known identity and it seems to be less of a factor if the importing party (i.e. the Chinese business) is really motivated in receiving the importing goods.
Whereas exporting to the U.S. / Europe is more transparent, breaking the Asian markets are more difficult as significant inter political and business networks are required. Let´s hope Cambodia learns from it´s mistakes.

Different
Rather than the traditional rice exporting business, Vietnam seems intent on replicating it´s own model of business.
Having gained considerable success in cornering the global cashew market through control of the export chain (having a chunk of the import market and investing in Africa), it now seems to acknowledge the possible consequences Cambodia's rice exports might have both on Vietnam's ability to source higher quality produce as well as possibly threatening it´s own exports.
So invest it will and especially in post harvest operations. If you control the Cambodian rice mill market you control the export market and thus the ability to divert produce to Vietnam for re-export.
The investor has another couple of hints:

'BIDC director Tran Bac Ha, who also serves as president of the Association of Vietnamese Investors in Cambodia, said the high price of Cambodian rice was an impediment to the country competing in global markets.
To export a million tonnes of milled rice, the Kingdom would need to decrease electricity and transportation costs, as well as streamline the bureaucracy involved with the export process, he said'.

Streamline the bureaucracy thus?

Exports
Elsewhere, Cambodia hopes to be able to export to Indonesia. The exporter is cited:

'“Actually, they ordered about 200,000 tonnes, but I couldn't accept because it is very big,” he said'.

Considering the price of only $400-ton, the exporter might count himself lucky that he will be able to limit his losses ...

Indonesia also seems intent on learning from Vietnam:

'Indonesia is ready to cooperate with Vietnam in researching and developing some hybrid rice varieties, Suswono said, adding that Vietnam has great potential and rich experience in agriculture, highlighting its position among top world rice exporters'.

Hopefully the minister has been briefed correctly. He might need to nationalize the natiuon's rice industry and invest in non-hybrid rice growing ...

Other markets mentioned for cambodian outflows of rice produce, are the Philippines according to the Phnom Penh Post (16 March 2012:

'“Cambodia should understand that the biggest market for rice is in the Philippines and Indonesia,” he said, adding that the government-brokered deal was an attempt on the part of the Philippines’ National Food Authority to diversify its imports.
Cambodia exported about 173,000 tonnes of milled-rice last year, a 226 per cent increase on the year before, according to Ministry of Commerce figures.
The majority of the shipments went to the European Union'.

Very odd indeed that despite the biggest import markets on Cambodia´s doorstep, that the past has seen exports only to those beyond the vicinity. Prices? Transparency?

Investment
Surprising statistics. Cambodia's agro investments are mostly in rubber. According to Council for Development of Cambodia $674 million was earmarked for rubber investments versus $19 million for rice processing.
Though much of Cambodian farmers are dependent on rice farming, private investors are shunning this sector in favour of rubber, possibly because of the underlying value of land involved. Because of all the rubber dollars pouring in, not much of this is destined to rubber processing...

Other developments. Trying to remain in front of the pack, Thailand hopes it´s Khao Hom Mali rice will receive Geographical Indication status from the EU. How they hope to maintain some kind of restriction on this remains a doubt.

Back in time
Older news: the Cambodian government wants to guarantee rice loans (by earmarking $25 million) according to the Phnom Penh Post of 15 February 2012. Comment from the millers: not enough!

Thailand's the Nation (January 17 2012) laments the disappearing Thai dominance of the rice market:

'Vietnam will eclipse Thailand as the world's biggest rice exporter this year as the government's pledging scheme artificially inflates Thai prices, exporters predicted ... Other negative factors facing Thai rice exports include an expected increase in shipments from India as export quotas there expire in February; Vietnam's announcement that it would double jasmine rice exports to 800,000 tonnes this year; an increase in the number of countries exporting rice, including Brazil and Uruguay; Cambodia's projection that it will export 1 million tonnes this year; and an acceleration in exports from Burma, particularly of parboiled rice'.

The Bangkok Post on fourth of January chimes in with criticism as it explains that current domestic rice policies are resulting in higher inflation mainly attributed to rising rice prices.

Hybrid
Finally an interesting article on where the rice is heading. It notes increasing amounts of exports are coming from Latin America and how the Thai rice mortgage scheme will help prices initially but long term will keep prices from rising by much.
It then gives an honest US account of hybrids:

'When asked about concern over the quality of hybrid rice, Brothers said, “We’re not saying they’re perfect, but neither is conventional rice. We seem to be up against the wall with our conventional varieties. We don’t know quite where to go to get greater yields. We think the hybrids are the best way to bring new varieties to the marketplace.”'

One thing for sure, other than farmer to farmer exchange, companies disseminating hybrid rice seeds do know how to get seeds to the farmers. Produce wise, I doubt whether the product stands up to conventional higher priced varieties. In terms of markets and economy-wise. Then again there will always be a market for lower quality grains ...

Going down

Answers to the drop
Despite all the suggestions to the opposite, exports of Cambodian rice seem to be declining.
An article in the Phnom Penh Post (25 January 2012) reports 40% declines of milled rice, year on year for January 2012.
Partially, this is due to the easing of the market, as witnessed in lower global prices. Lower prices reflect changes in demand and supply, mostly because harvests in Vietnam and South Asia have been good combined with bursting of the global growth bubble.
The article reports that Cambodia's 'competitors' have undercut the Kingdom's prices and it seems that more new lessons are needed to be learned, as witnessed with this citation:

“Look how different the price is. How can we export to the international market when the price changes so greatly?”

Quite. But this is all part of the game.
The price differential with the competitors is dropping in both relative as well in absolute sense, so buyers will seek to look for other ways to distinguish the to be bought product. Say quality. Ah, quality ....

A few weeks (14 February 2012) after this article, the Phnom Penh Post has another write up on Cambodia's rice exports. Probably one of Cambodia's most knowledgeable expert on rice production in the Mekong Delta, Tim Purcell of ADI, corroborates above statements.
Other industry suggestions are the need for creating economies of scale.

In an interview (PPP, 17 February 2012) with Royal ANZ bank CEO, he suggests government should involveitself in the sector with the creation of a marketing board (a down under solution?), which would be part of this economy of scale as well as an institute to initiate standards. Finance not so ...

Cross the border
A good article was featured in the New Mandala.
Focusing on Thai farmer's ability to cope with floods, it stated that despite the floods, rice production went up, as those paddy fields not affected saw much larger outputs. Farmers also sought financial compensation.
That said, the financial compensation was much lower than that what could be expected if the produce could be part of Thailand's rice mortgage scheme.
The article then looks at the sustainability of this mortgage scheme which has cost lower than expected, as the overall rice output dropped.
In a by-the-way message it also notes that exporters have seen drops of nearly 60% in export numbers.

A recent article in the Nation (17 February 2012) looks in more detail at the market circumstances.
Yes, pledges have been less than expected, but posts have been reset and the Thai government seems to be aiming for 10 million tonnes of stored produce so as to determine domestic and international prices.
However:

'They '[Thai exporters] question how the ministry can sell Thai premium-quality rice at such a high price when Vietnam's jasmine rice has almost the same quality in terms of glutinousness and aroma. In addition, Vietnam imports jasmine rice from Cambodia, which has same quality as Thai rice, for re-export'.

Visionary
Further afield. It seems that GE rice is the future. If one is to believe the new rice expertise of Bill Gates. AFP has on record:

'"If you care about the poorest, you care about agriculture. We believe that it's possible for small farmers to double and in some cases even triple their yields in the next 20 years while preserving the land," Gates said'.

Well, the past has clearly indicated that yield gains hardly ever fall to small farmers. And Mr Gates illustrates his case with:

'Another key development is the use of satellite technology developed by defence departments to document data about individual fields, ...'.

He continues to ventilate his expertise. On the issue of land investments that are referred to by their critics as "land grabbing", he said:

'It's not actually possible to grab the land. People don't put it on boats and take it back to the Middle East.
"If we could have clear guidelines there could be more land deals and overall it could be very beneficial... The truth is the person who is most at risk on a land deal is the person who is putting the money in'.

But kicking someone off one's own land is surely land grabbing?

Other issues of vision, possibly a lacl of? A report of the lack of seeds which may contribute to lower production figures in Cambodia's future. Demand seems to be outstripping CARDI's ability to produce seeds, with the private sector not yet clear on whether or not they are stepping in to meet the increased demand.

Sector development

Developing the sector
Despite all the hype about encouraging rice exports from Cambodia, the first 10 months of the year saw the increase limited to more than 7 percent according to the Phnom Penh Post (18 November 2011). A trader is quoted as the increase attributed

'... to a decrease in corruption'.

Again the Phnom Penh Post (23 November 2011) reports that banks are willing to invest hundreds of millions into the rice sector. The catch?

'In fact, I’d be happy to make $100 million available today for millers with the right credit quality,” CEO [of ANZ Royal] Stephen Higgins said'.

And it is the lack of credit worthiness that is a major factor in traders having insufficient access to the funds, so not so newsworthy. Possibly the government could step in as guarantor?

Rice reforms are another issue required says Cambodian PM according to a Phnom Penh Post report on November 24 2011.

'During his speech at the 16th Government-Private Sector Forum at the Council of Ministers, Hun Sen urged ministers to open a “one-stop window” to streamline the export process while also calling for the creation of a rice exporter’s association'.

However there already exists a Cambodian Rice Exporter Association! But with little publicity ... Compare with say the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

Transparency? A Japanese energy company with the inventive name of New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) signs an MoU with the Cambodia's Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy to generate energy while milling rice (Phnom Penh Post, 23 November 2011). But where is the private sector involved? NEDO is actually a Japanese government organisation so that explains the MoU. But what will become of the rice mill? Competition for the private sector?

Hybrid news
As always when disasters happen, the vultures are always near. The Bangkok Post (1 December 2011) reports how CP has teamed up with Thailand's state run rural bank BAAC to help farmers ... get addicted to hybrid rice.

'Rice farmers who obtained career rehabilitation loans from BAAC have the option of entering the programme, in which farm management, technologies and hybrid rice seeds are essential. ... The company will buy back paddy at fair prices or help farmers to improve and distribute paddy to the market'.

Of course this will be a boon for farmers, productivity rates are great blah, blah. But wait, what will be the price for the produce? Lower than normal and CP is promising a fair price, which translates in an even lower price. Risks? Who will be paying? The taxman?

Interesting? Farmers in Ranchi, India are happy with their bumper harvests of rice this year (Times of India, December 4, 2011) due to the use of hybrid seeds and SRI! Opposing ends?

Food for thought
Finally an interesting article from the New Mandala (December 8, 2011) concerning research on Cambodia. The author, Maylee Thavant, highlights his/her research findings concerning the exploration of authentic and/or traditional cultivation of rice in Cambodia. The conclusions are that sustainable agriculture and organic agriculture promotion

'may impose First World consumer ideals and tastes'

with little to offer the broader development of agriculture in Cambodia. Rises in productivity are not coming from emphasis on traditional practices but are the result of increasing returns from higher investment in processes, cultivation and production means. Just a pity that the original document itself is not publicly available, more imposition of traditional means of science publication imposed on the non-scientific?

Anyway I believe that heaping organic with sustainable is not the same. There is a lot to learn from seeking organic markets if only the lessons learnt from seeking more sophisticated markets.
Sustainable though seeks to dissuade farmers from taking up more modern but often more self-destructive methods without any short term financial rewards other than a good feeling for farmers and development organisation. Possibly farmers are better served in this case by informing farmers of better ways of modern farming which ensures better financial rewards.