What goes up ...

Prices down?

Indications are that rice prices are continuing to drop. The FAO suggests prices have dropped by 5-20% in the first half of this year on an annual basis. 

The only exception is Thailand's export rice prices which went up, though it is definitely certain that the Thai exports prices lead the market. More players in the market as well as higher global stocks have lead to the lessening of the significance of Thai rice.

Despite this, Bloomberg (June 5, 2012) do expect Thailand to regain it's position of major exporter, if only because the next harvests spurred on by the higher domestic prices will result in record output; the government will have to take a hit and sell it's stock if only to ensure the ability to buy and store the future crop. 

In a by-line it also quotes USDA as mentioning that 

'Cambodia's shipments' 

may reach 950,000 ton, up 19%. 

This may come as a surprise, as the Cambodian premier has wished that by 2015 1 million tonnes may be exported, a wish many believe will not materialize ... 

Puts some perspectives on all statistics mentioned ...

Long-term

Despite this consumer rosy outlook, Yuan Longping expects rice breeding to ensure even higher outputs. In a recent speech he predicted that productivity from hybrids could still go up by another 10%. He also mentioned

'“To cope with the food problems, the country [China] must carry out proper land policies, introduce preferential policies for farmers, provide technology support and solve the issue of grain prices,” he added'.

I don't know what the issue of grain prices is, but in the neverending clogwheel of forcing farmers to accept lower prices for higher outputs, hybrid rice will continue to force smaller producers out, favouring the cash-richer farmers. Solving this issue can only take place if accepting that ceilings in productivity have been reached...

Cambodian challenges

Rice exporters face challenges seems to be newsworthy to the Phnom Penh Post (5 July 2012): 

'Pou Puy, president of the Cambodian Rice Millers Association, said that the export of Cambodia’s white rice faces challenges in terms of both quantity and competitive pricing, as exports of milled rice dropped about 35 per cent for the first half of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011'. 

Quantity, there's only that much that one can do, but competitive pricing? How can this be a challenge?

Other challenges? Increased funding. Why? Phnom Penh Post (28 June 2012) cites:

'"Baitong will increase its capital to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of fragrant unmilled rice, compared to last year’s 70,000 tonnes said Phou Puy, president of the Federation of Rice Millers Associations and the Baitong Rice Export Company.
Working capital would increase from US$28 million to $50 million this year as fragrant unmilled rice cost $450 per tonne, an increase from $400 per tonne he said'. 

Well, at least somebody is expecting prices to rise ....

Phnom Penh Post, 11 June 2012 names another two challenges:

 'Milled-rice exporters have called on the government to continue its efforts in reducing electricity and transportation costs, two of the main obstacles facing the government’s goal of exporting 1 million tonnes of milled rice by 2015'.

Government needs to work on this .... 

The article also mentions: 

'Although the government said the country would more than double its rice exports to 400,000 tonnes this year, experts have expressed misgivings about the figure as exports to Europe, Cambodia’s primary buyer, declined at the beginning of the year'.

The Alliance of Rice Producers and Exporters of Cambodia (ARPEC) has been formed (PPP, May 28 2012), a step in the right direction. However government involvement seems major, whereas an association should be independent especially as it needs to pressurize the government to make trade internationally more competitive ...

Other Thai issues
ASEAN integration means non-Thai entities are starting up business in Thailand and taking a slice of the Thai rice pie. The article in the Nation (june 15, 2012) is a bit odd, in that it fails to mention why this could be a problem, other than undercutting Thai government / Thai business interests:

'Although rice farming and trading are limited to Thais under the Foreign Business Act, many foreigners can easily rent or own land for raising rice and conducting a rice-trading business in the Kingdom," a rice trader said yesterday. At a Commerce Ministry seminar on creating a strategy linking local and global businesses, Thai rice exporters urged the government to protect Thai rice-cultivating areas and the trading business from alien residents by urgently checking the ownership of rice plantations and the certificates for running a trading business.
...
Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said some Thai rice exporters are now not Thai, while some foreign rice exporters want to join the association as members. She said Asean integration was a two-edged sword for the Thai rice industry, as it has encouraged Thai exporters to expand to other Asean nations, while foreign traders can easily penetrate the market here'.

Export news

• One hundred thousand tonnes destined for Indonesia (PPP, 28 June 2012).
• Phnom Penh Port will buy polishing equipment (PPP, 8 June 2012). 
• A rice mill for Takeo province, owned and operated by Canadia Bank (PPP, May 31, 2012).  A by line to a possible export deal with Guinea (PPP, May 2012):

  'An agreement for agricultural co-operation between Cambodia and Guinea was never followed through on, but the visit was hoped to expedite the co-operation. “[Our] two countries signed an agreement in 2008 for co-operation, especially on agricultural cooperation.
  But Guinea has not implemented it. This visit will encourage even more firm and active cooperation [firmer and more active than nothing?] on agricultural issues. It will be win-win for both countries,” Eang Sophallet said'.

The China trade
The Phnom Penh Post on June 7 notes:

'A 144-tonne shipment of Cambodian fragrant rice will leave Phnom Penh for Fuzhou, China on Saturday, the first Chinese order for the Kingdom’s milled rice after a recent government agreement was reached on Chinese regulation.
...
Reported regulatory issues have held back Cambodian rice shipments to China for more than a year, experts have said, some of whom maintained that the problem was Chinese red tape, not rice quality.
Rice millers have collected a stack of memoranda of understanding but the pseudo-agreements failed to translate into real trade.
...
Golden Rice president Sok Hach said his company sent a 48-tonne test run earlier in the year but failed to pass regulatory tests in the southern Chinese port of Shenzhen'.

On the same subject, PPP reported on June 1 2012:

'The Post reported last week that China approved local rice miller Golden Rice to export milled rice to China. A trial run the company sent to China earlier this year was refused by the Chinese government upon arrival in the southern port of Shenzhen.
Chan Tong Yves, secretary of state at the Ministry of Agriculture, said the ministry also has a quality testing laboratory, but it does not comply with the standards for exporting milled rice' [!]. 

On a final note, Cambodia needs Chinese cash for the rice trade: PPP (May 30, 2012):

'Cambodian government officials and private sector leaders have met with Chinese officials to negotiate a US$200 million loan for the development of Cambodia’s rice sector, an official said on Tuesday'.