Sticks

And so we come to the end of a year, a year in which there's been precious little to report on topic-wise, certainly of any substance. 

How come? 

If anything, companies have been gaining ever more influence over governments worldwide, so much so that it's becoming increasingly hard to distinguish between the two. 

Possibly pushing hybrid rice as such has so little positives to mention (other than profits) that we aren't hearing anything about it. 

I suspect the leading companies involved, are just at the moment in a lull and certainly looking into what f.i. Europe has been trying to regulate in say the glyphosate case. 

Producing fake news also doesn't seem to work long term wise, so probably the main companies involved are doing a rethink. 

We'll soon learn what's in stall for us in the coming year ...

With the deteriorating (and need I suggest farcical?) political situation in Cambodia, the news (Phnom Penh Post, Dec. 8) that Italy wishes to arrest further EU imports from Cambodia might be viewed as being linked. The article suggests otherwise:

'Italy, along with six other European Union countries, has filed a fresh request to European Commission to limit the volume of rice imported from the Kingdom by activating a “safeguard clause” that allows EU member states to impose barriers to protect against trade imbalances.
The Italian government submitted an official request to the European Commission on November 20 calling for restrictions on the amount of imported rice entering the European market from Cambodia, according to a report yesterday by Euractiv news.
While the report called the request “trailblazing” and a more concerted effort compared to a similar submission to the commission in 2016, local industry insiders said that Italy’s statements usually fall on deaf ears and are an annual protectionist complaint.
...
Long Kemvichet, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said he was not worried about Italy’s recent request to limit rice exports, because the commission had never responded to such requests in the past'.

Though it's not linked, one can imagine that with the election run-in, the EU might want to give off a clearer sign that the road taken might not be exactly what they had in mind. And here's a stick ...

And concerning exports, state run Agence Kampuchea Press (Dec. 22) reports on the newest (upbeat) figures:

'For the first 11 months of 2017, Cambodia exported a total of 562,237 tons of milled rice, up 17.20 percent compared to the same period in 2016.
According to statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, during the period, Cambodian milled rice was exported to 63 countries around the world, mainly to China (164,979 tons), France (70,741 tons), Poland (41,469 tons), Malaysia (35,209 tons), Bangladesh (26,970 tons), England (25,889 tons).
By the end of November this year, rainy paddy rice cultivation ended successfully with 106.45 percent of the yearly plan, said the source'.

Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 11) adds:

'Approximately 45 percent of Cambodia’s total rice exports have gone to the European market, while 29 percent have gone to China alone.
According to Hean Vanhan, director general at the General Directorate of Agriculture, “based on the trend, rice exports should reach over 600,000 tonnes by the end of the year”.

So entry to Europe is quite essential for the Cambodian rice market.

From the Khmer Times (Dec. 13) this snippet of rice news:

'Next month the Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) will hold the sixth edition of the Cambodia Rice Forum, bringing major stakeholders in the sector together to discuss the future of the local rice industry and create a joint effort to ramp up production and exports'.

Giant
I like this article (Phnom Penh Post, Dec. 27), just hope it's not all a write up to make the initiative seem positive. Read with me:

'A conservation scheme begun eight years ago in Preah Vihear province, in which farmers are recruited to grow organic rice for the international market in exchange for protecting local ecology, has successfully signed up 43 new families in Stung Treng province over the last year, according to a press release today.
An effort by Wildlife Conservation Society and BirdLife International, the Ibis Rice project guarantees incomes for participating farmers in selected conservation areas through the sale of organic rice above the market price. According to the statement yesterday, the 43 new families in Khek Svay village of Stung Treng’s Siem Pang Wildlife Sanctuary have committed to the project since last year. The project now has over 1,000 families participating, including in Preah Vihear’s Kulen Prom Tep and Chhaeb wildlife sanctuaries.
...
Siem Pang Wildlife Sanctuary covers 150,000 hectares and is home to about 20 percent of world population of the critically endangered giant ibis and half the world population of the critically endangered white-shouldered ibis'.

More initiatives, this time from the private sector. Amru Rice (Dec. 8) announces:

'The Cambodian Agriculture Cooperative Cooperation (CCAC) set to be completed in Kampong Thom province by the end of the year, is the first large-scale farm cooperative venture in Cambodia.
Funded by the European Union and local parties, the $3 million investment project will be located over 10 hectares and will process and store, rice, pepper, cashews, vegetables, and fruits ready for export.
Founder of CCAC and CEO of Amru Rice Cambodia Song Saran said rice will share about 60 percent of total storage of agricultural products, while pepper, cashews, vegetables and fruits, will be stored in the CCAC’s processing buildings, which has a storage capacity of up to 5,000 tonnes'.

More business on new ideas. The Khmer Times (Dec. 8):

'Cambodia and China will sign an agreement in the near future to support research on growing a new variety of rice in the kingdom, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF).
The proposed MoU, which is being negotiated by MAFF and its Chinese counterpart, will lay down the rules for cooperation between both nations in conducting studies on the rice variety known as oryza sativa japonica.
The ultimate goal is to grow the crop in the kingdom and export it to China, where demand for the rice variety is huge'.

I doubt whether this could be a success. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 1) reports on insurance for agriculture, mostly rice growing (I think):

'Officials in the agriculture sector yesterday called on relevant stakeholders to scale up initiatives for crop insurance schemes to help Cambodian farmers mitigate the risks of having their fields destroyed by flooding and drought.
Speaking at a workshop organised by German development agency GIZ, Mom Thany, undersecretary of state of Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, said enlarging the availability of crop insurance would help secure the livelihoods of small-scale farmers.
“The agricultural sector is most vulnerable to climate change,” she said. “Crop insurance protects farmer’s investments and ensures that even when a harvest fails, farmers have sufficient financial resources to reinvest and cover basic household needs like food and health care.”
Typical crop insurance initiatives that have been piloted in the Kingdom involve rice farmers paying into a scheme at the beginning of the growing season, with payments based on the size of the farm, type of paddy grown and technical tools used. In return, farmers get an insurance payout if their crop is assessed to be damaged by flood or drought'.

Poetic

Bangkok Post (Dec. 23) has an interesting article on the on-goings of rural Thailand:

'In July of this year, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha released his "Farmers' Soul-Soothing" poem to the press and the Thai public. He urged farmers: "Don't leave your home and farmland, leaving family behind, struggling to make a living locally."
His poem focuses on a number of prominent themes in rural development debates in Thailand: the migration of the young; the consequent ageing of those farmers left behind; the sustainability of agriculture; and the risks of leaving home.
...
This apparent ageing of farmers on the one hand, and farm size decline on the other, is also evident across the Southeast Asian region. The government and many agricultural economists see these trends as problematic.
...
The livelihoods that gradually came into view as our study progressed revealed not ageing farmers stubbornly holding onto their land, thus preventing the modernisation of the agriculture, but households struggling to build secure livelihoods against the inherited vulnerabilities of farming, a thinly woven social safety net, and the precariousness of much non-farm work'. 

The riceland is held as a fall back option, should this modern life one day fall apart.

For the government's role, The Nation (Dec. 18) notes:

'The government has been trying to promote its large-plantation policy  [for rice farmers] since last year with the ambitious goal of bringing farmers out of the “middle-income trap” by 2021. But farmer groups cannot help but wonder whether the policy has really increased their bargaining power.
“When I go to rice mills, I still feel powerless,” the manager of a large rice plantation in Khon Kaen province said on condition of anonymity recently.
Under the large-plantation policy, the government does not push farmers into working on the same plots of land. Rather, a shared management system is promoted that the government believes will help farmers lower their costs and boost their productivity'. 

So poetry is the government's best shot?

Scrap

There's been quite a few articles on rubber and cashew growing in the Khmer press lately.

Starting off with rubber.

Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 13) looks into the governments role:

'Despite a 31 percent increase in Cambodian rubber exports during the first 11 months of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture is failing to recoup on expenses it has spent sending expert technicians into the field in order to help boost production.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the government has spent $379,000 so far this year on technical support for rubber farmers and plantations, and has received only $299,000 back through revenue generated primarily through land rental fees.
...
Khoun Phalla, a director of the rubber department at the Ministry of Agriculture, said that the government has established five teams of rubber experts that have been deployed across the country.
“We have helped the price of rubber,” he said. “It is now better for small-scale farmers.” Phalla added that the ministry’s experts have shown farmers how to increase yields at lower costs.
“What we have spent so far will be returned through higher profits from rubber farmers and that will eventually promote government revenue,” he said.
However, Hang Sreng, director of rubber exporter Long Sreng International, said that despite the government’s expert teams, the rubber sector would remain largely unprofitable unless the government scraps taxes.
“We do not make profits from rubber because we have to pay a lot of taxes and fees to the government and that makes us unable to compete,” he said. “The specialists have helped with efficiency, but that is not enough.”

The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 18) has an article on the foreign interests in the kingdom's plantations:

"Socfin Cambodia, the local branch of a Europe-based international rubber producing company that currently operates a 7,500-hectare rubber plantation in Mondulkiri, has announced plans to open the doors to its first rubber factory next April, with an initial investment of $5.7 million, a company executive said last week.
Jef Boedt, general manager of Socfin Cambodia, said that since the company launched its rubber plantation in 2009, approximately 2,000 hectares of rubber have become harvestable, making it economically reasonable for Socfin to open its own processing factory.
...
According to Boedt, once the factory is operational it will have the capacity to produce 25 tonnes of dry rubber per day, or approximately 8,000 tonnes per year. He added that the company has not yet decided whether it will sell the rubber it produces directly to the international market or if it will continue selling through local traders.
International rubber prices have risen year-on-year, and Boedt said that he believes that trend will continue in 2018. “The probability that the price will go up is higher than the probability that the price will go down,” he said.
...
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Cambodia exported over 150,000 tonnes of rubber in the first 11 months of the year, amounting to total revenue of $249 million'.

Over to the cashew news. The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 4) reports on how huge Vietnam's slice of the Cambodian cashew concern is:

'Vietnam, a major buyer of the Cambodian cashew nut, has unveiled a plan to purchase cashews in even greater volumes during next year’s harvest season, giving hope to farmers who rely on selling their crops at good prices from February through May.
Agriculture Minister Veng Sakhon told The Post yesterday that Cambodian officials and the Vietnamese Cashew Association have been working together to form a committee on cashew production which is expected to draft an agreement to export more Cambodian cashews to its eastern neighbour.
...
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Cambodia is producing a total of about 104,268 tonnes of cashews annually. Most production comes out of the Kampong Thom and Kampong Cham provinces, which account for 29 percent and 18 percent respectively of the country’s total production.
During this past harvest season Vietnam bought around 102,000 tonnes of cashew nuts from Cambodia, explained Sakhon, with the few tonnes of cashews remaining being locally processed.
He added that Vietnam is currently importing about 1.2 million tonnes of cashews from India annually, and that it also exports about 3.2 million tonnes of processed cashews to international markets each year.
Um Uon, president of the Sambo Prey Kub Cashew Nut Association in Kampong Thom province, said yesterday that the prices of cashews this past harvest season were relatively good, coming in between 5,000 riel ($1.25) to 8,000 riel ($2) per kilo depending on quality'.

The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 7) notes how the non-Vietnamese part of the value chain is to be propped up with help of South-Korean interests:

'Local agricultural firm Camcashew signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with an obscure South Korean company yesterday with the aim of exporting 10,000 tonnes of processed cashew nuts next year, claiming that the two firms had reserved $100 million to fund the agreement.
Camcashew, a joint venture between a Cambodian and Malaysian firm, signed the MoU with Kim Ki Chul, president of South Korea’s Naroo Marine Company Limited.
Syaiful Hazreen, director of Camcashew, said yesterday that $80 million would be spent to purchase 40,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts while the remaining $20 million would be spent on purchasing a 400-hectare plot of land and machinery for processing the raw kernels.
...
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Cambodia produces a total of about 104,000 tonnes of raw cashews annually. Most production comes from the provinces of Kampong Thom and Kampong Cham, which account for 29 percent and 18 percent respectively.
In the first 11 months of this year, Cambodia exported 71,293 tonnes of raw cashews to Vietnam, Thailand, China and India. Vietnam alone absorbed 98 percent of these exports'.

Then back to Vietnam, which according to the Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 11) has set forward a benevolent idea:

'The Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) gave the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture a $66,000 grant late last week to support cashew production in the Kingdom, according to ministry officials.
According to Hean Vanhan, director general at General Directorate of Agriculture, the grant will go toward enacting a four-year plan that will see 1 million cashew trees planted on a new 500,000 hectare farm by 2022.
...
In the first 11 months of this year, Cambodia exported 71,293 tonnes of raw cashews to Vietnam, Thailand, China and India. Vietnam alone absorbed 98 percent of these exports [!]. Vietnam exports approximately 3.2 million tonnes of processed cashews to the international market each year'.

Then beyond the tried and trusted there are the new initiatives. The Phnom Penh Post (Dec 26):

'The Agriculture Ministry is set to sign a mango export investment deal with a Chinese firm worth up to $50 million, the second such deal in the country, Agriculture Minister Veng Sokhon said yesterday.'
...
Mong Reththa, vice chairman of the board of directors at Mong Reththy Group Co Ltd, said mangoes currently had the most potential for the international market, but farming techniques needed to be improved.
“In order to reach the international market, we need to have techniques and standards for maintaining a mango farm, then focusing on packaging and freezing,” he said.
The foreign investment deals would help spur family farms to adopt more technical methods and “add value for the farmer”, Reththa said. Kingdom Fruits International Co Ltd, a sister company of Mong Reththy Group, was the first to export mangoes abroad'.

Hazard

Then some more feedback concerning pesticides witnessed in Thai horticulture. 

The Nation (Dec. 3):

'Recent research has disclosed that serious contamination from persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and herbicides in food and the environment poses health threats to the Thai public.
The research, from Ecological Alert and Recovery – Thailand (EARTH) and Thailand Pesticide Alert Network (Thai-PAN), found that Samut Sakhon had the highest levels of dioxin contamination. The level of contaminants known as polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PBDD/Fs) was 33 times higher than European Union standards, Meanwhile, 46 per cent and 55 per cent respectively of fruit and vegetables were found to contain pesticides and herbicides.
The organisations said that toxic substances posed serious health threats and the authorities had not put enough measures and regulations in place to protect the public'.

The Bangkok Post (Dec. 7) then demonstrates what consumer protectors are up against:

'Thai Pesticide Alert Network (Thai-PAN) will today submit a petition to the Ministry of Industry, asking it to ban the herbicide paraquat and the pesticide chlorpyrifos, while restricting the use of glyphosate.
'The petition is timed to coincide with a meeting of the ministry's committee on hazardous chemicals which will decide on the use of the pesticides. The petition urges the committee to classify paraquat and chlorpyrifos as a "hazardous" substance which will lead to a total ban on production, imports and exports or even buying and selling. Regarding glyphosate, the network wants the committee to monitor the use strictly.
...
Witoon Lianchamroon, director of Biothai, an advocacy group on sustainable agriculture, said he was worried the decision of the committee is likely to be swayed as two of the 10 members on the committee are from chemical companies. He said a report cited by the ministry that banning the chemicals will contribute to an economic loss of over 70 billion baht is also groundless'. 

Fake

Some bits and bobs to close this entry off.

The Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 7) reports on certification, I presume on cassava:

'In a bid to decentralise the certificates of origin (COs) process to help promote international exports and ease cross-border trade, the Ministry of Commerce launched a pilot project yesterday that allows officials in the provinces of Battambang and Pailin to directly issue certification'.

Meanwhile the Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 8) notes that palm sugar growers / traders have other problems:

'Takeo provincial authorities shut down 11 small-scale operations yesterday for making fake palm sugar, and say they have plans to close more
According to Lumpong Commune Police Chief Nob Phary, police have identified 43 palm sugar operations in Bati district that are suspected of cooking down white sugar to imitate the more expensive palm sugar'. 

Phnom Penh Post (Dec. 14):

'The Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts is urging provincial authorities to dissolve [really?] spurious palm sugar operations, after 43 sham sugar producers were shut down earlier this week.
On Tuesday, Minister Cham Prasidh ordered provincial officials to investigate and close any facility that appears to cut its Khmer palm sugar with similar substances, such as white sugar, in order to keep the industry in line with international standards'.

Then in a possible positive swing  Thailands The Nation (Dec. 17) reports that with the rubber boom rebounding forest encroachment may also be wound back:

'MID the plunging price of rubber latex to below Bt50 per kilogram, concerned officials are now eyeing the potential for eliminating the encroachment of rubber trees in forests. As well as returning forests back to nature, the move would help reduce the volume of latex and thus push up prices'.

Re-cap

Rice news during the past year has been dominated by Thai efforts to support it's farmers and rural areas by buying up all the nations rice at above market levels and storing it for future sales. Though initially rosy, the plan has backfired. Sales are near non-existent, world market prices have dropped rendering potential huge losses and the large amount of fraud has resulted in national political liability for the ruling party. 

And all of it could have been expected.

And has anything changed the last few weeks? well, there's certainly been a fair share or reporting.

Sales or not?

An MoU was signed between Thailand and China concerning the purchase of more than a quarter million tons (Nation, 22 Nov.). 

A day earlier the same source reported the possibility of 5 million tons moving northwards. But spread over 3 years. The bad news: 

'However, Thai rice exports to China dropped 57.8 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, to 91,460 tonnes'. 

Another day later, context comes in. The Nation:

'It has been remarked that this week's MoU is totally different from previous government statements that China would purchase 5 million tonnes of rice from Thailand in three years. There was no such fixed figure in the MoU but only a statement, without any firm commitment, that China would import high volumes of Thai rice and that Thailand would supply the rice as required by China. In addition, the price will be negotiated based on the market price at the time of any future transaction'. 

On the 24th the Bangkok Post has more insight on the potential losses:

'Mr Paibul also cited a warning from the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) that the rice scheme could saddle the country with huge debts.

"The TDRI estimated losses from the rice scheme would be around 6,000-7,000 baht per tonne of paddy. This amounts to nearly 200 billion baht of losses per year or 800 billion baht during the four-year term of this government," he said.

As it is only a memorandum of understanding, either partner can cancel it at any time. In this case, Thailand needs China to import rice to help its dispose of its huge stockpile of about 6 million tonnes accumulated under its high-priced pledging scheme. Unfortunately, there is no G2G deal at all now'. 

And a few days later, apparently the Chinese ambassador to Thailand has said there is no deal at all (Bangkok Post, 2 Dec.): 

'The Democrat Party has demanded the government present documents to prove it has sealed a rice export deal with Beijing, after the Chinese ambassador to Thailand said the agreement had only been reached in principle'.

Pledge sidelines

Nigeria mentions receiving 10 year old Thai rice (Nation, 20 Nov.). With the Thai government hoarding it's own nations surpluses this could become more commonplace. Same publication, same day notes that already 100 cases are being researched by the Thai anti-graft agency.

The Thai Finance Minister though sees a positive future (Bangkok Post, 23 Nov.): 

'He [Fin. Min.] said the rice pledging scheme, which pays 15,000 baht per tonne for white rice paddy, might incur some losses, but the figure would not reach 300 billion baht'.

Hongkong reports that Thai rice is losing flavour in the local market: 

'"Hong Kong consumer behaviour has changed to lower-quality rice because of high prices of Thai rice and slowing economic growth. The Thai government should set a competitive price for rice, which should be lower than the current price by $100 a tonne in order to narrow the gap between Thai [rice] and its rivals," Chan [chairman of the Rice Merchants Association of Hong Kong and vice chairman of the Hong Kong Rice Suppliers Association] said'.  

Report from the Bangkok Post (19 Dec.).

The Nation (18 Nov.) notes: 

'The high price of Thai rice has resulted in the Kingdom losing about 50 per cent of its export customers as countries switch to importing more rice from India and Vietnam, which offer more attractive prices'.

And then the hard talk

Another commentary from the Bangkok Post (13 Dec.) applauds efforts to redistribute wealth between the wealthy Bangkok and the poorer rural areas, but questions the rice-pledging scheme as the main driver: 

'So far, the government has not taken any steps to deal with graft allegations. Actually, the Pheu Thai Party failed from the start in not being able to explain why the rice pledging price was set at 15,000 baht per tonne. It's unlikely that the sum is based on rational calculation.

Moreover, it failed to specify measures to handle the existing stock and the glut of incoming stock to prevent a decline in the quality of rice and also to recoup the sum it invested'.

Adding more content is this commentary by the Bangkok Post (5 Dec.) It first mentions the main points which have been repeated oft enough: the discrepancy between the government has bought the rice and the likely huge losses stemming from the sales. The other is the system which encourages fraud. Significant other non-intended consequences lie ahead such as farmers now intentionally seeking less favourable environs for their rice fields: if all fails they are confident they will receive government hand-out. More mono-cropping. The trading system is whithering away. And it finally notes the political undercurrent: the farmers are now the recipients and are relied upon to vote and empower their leaders ...

And over the horizon is more bad news for Thailand. FAO reports (19 Nov.) that production is growing faster than consumption: 

'Global rice production for 2012 is forecast to outpace consumption in 2012/13, resulting in an upward revision of 5 million tonnes in 2013 closing inventories, according to a new forecast by FAO's Rice Market Monitor (RMM) issued today'. 

More inventory ultimately means  lower prices in the long term.

 

Cambodia

In Cambodia much promise was made of the potential to export even larger amounts. Not happening.

The FAO have once again assessed Cambodia's productivity and expects it to drop (Phnom Penh Post (PPP), 22 Nov.). It's a bit unclear by how much.

Cambodia needs a loan of $200 million to make exports happen What's that? No show, well then we need um .. $50 million. So reports the PPP (27 Nov.): 

'Son Kuthor, president of the state-run Rural Development Bank (RDB), said last week that previous negotiations for a loan of $200 million stalled because of differences between the parties in how the loan should be used.
“We don’t hope for $200 million because of the conditions the bank imposed,” he said.
“We now hope to receive a pilot loan to buy paddy rice. We’ve so far suggest $20 to 50 million,” he added'. 

Cambodia's rice sector is reorganising itself by initiating a sole organisation which can deal with the Ministry of Economy and Finance (PPP, 17 Dec.). Name: Federation of Cambodian Rice Exporters (FCRE). 

'Cambodia’s Minister of Commerce Cham Prasidh, who presided over the launch ceremony, said the federation will gain the full support of the government and will work with it to deal with all issues over the export of milled rice.

“The FCRE is the only partner in the rice industry authorised to discuss issues with the government,” he said.

Cambodia has a number of milled rice associations, leading to inter-association disputes. However, Cham Prasidh said all of the organisations will maintain their authorisation to export milled rice.

He also warned that associations which do not become members of the FCRE will lose their right to talk to the government on export issues'.  

Bodes well?

The same source, a week earlier highlights one other organisation:

'The Alliance of Rice Producers and Exporters of Cambodia (ARPEC) will release US$2 million after December 15 to its members in nine provinces so they can buy paddy rice before the harvest season ends and stocks have been depleted.

Hann Khieng, director of ARPEC which was formed in May this year, said an internal meeting between the alliance’s management teams and members last week agreed to disburse about $2 million to its members'.

Back

Finally back on subject, hybrids. Hybrids are the panacea for our future, still so it seems, despite little proof forthcoming this year on whether or not anything tangible (more financial returns?) might arise. An interesting article from the South China Morning Post (28 Nov.) as even they are raising question marks as to whether the grail of achieving more is sustainable? 

'A farming pioneer's ambitious goal to increase the yield of hybrid rice by 11 per cent in the next three years risks making the staple more vulnerable to weather, disease and pests, agriculture experts have warned. 

...

China's rice fields, including both hybrid and normal rice, already yield 6.7 tonnes a hectare annually. That was not far behind the 7.5-tonne yields in developed countries where the most advanced farming technologies are used, such as Australia and the United States.

Several scientists, however, said the 15-tonne target was impractical because the costs of growing such rice, in terms of fertiliser and land management, would be enormous. Moreover, they warned that focus on field yield could sacrifice the crop's resistance to weather and pests'. 

A good read.

What goes up ...

Prices down?

Indications are that rice prices are continuing to drop. The FAO suggests prices have dropped by 5-20% in the first half of this year on an annual basis. 

The only exception is Thailand's export rice prices which went up, though it is definitely certain that the Thai exports prices lead the market. More players in the market as well as higher global stocks have lead to the lessening of the significance of Thai rice.

Despite this, Bloomberg (June 5, 2012) do expect Thailand to regain it's position of major exporter, if only because the next harvests spurred on by the higher domestic prices will result in record output; the government will have to take a hit and sell it's stock if only to ensure the ability to buy and store the future crop. 

In a by-line it also quotes USDA as mentioning that 

'Cambodia's shipments' 

may reach 950,000 ton, up 19%. 

This may come as a surprise, as the Cambodian premier has wished that by 2015 1 million tonnes may be exported, a wish many believe will not materialize ... 

Puts some perspectives on all statistics mentioned ...

Long-term

Despite this consumer rosy outlook, Yuan Longping expects rice breeding to ensure even higher outputs. In a recent speech he predicted that productivity from hybrids could still go up by another 10%. He also mentioned

'“To cope with the food problems, the country [China] must carry out proper land policies, introduce preferential policies for farmers, provide technology support and solve the issue of grain prices,” he added'.

I don't know what the issue of grain prices is, but in the neverending clogwheel of forcing farmers to accept lower prices for higher outputs, hybrid rice will continue to force smaller producers out, favouring the cash-richer farmers. Solving this issue can only take place if accepting that ceilings in productivity have been reached...

Cambodian challenges

Rice exporters face challenges seems to be newsworthy to the Phnom Penh Post (5 July 2012): 

'Pou Puy, president of the Cambodian Rice Millers Association, said that the export of Cambodia’s white rice faces challenges in terms of both quantity and competitive pricing, as exports of milled rice dropped about 35 per cent for the first half of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011'. 

Quantity, there's only that much that one can do, but competitive pricing? How can this be a challenge?

Other challenges? Increased funding. Why? Phnom Penh Post (28 June 2012) cites:

'"Baitong will increase its capital to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of fragrant unmilled rice, compared to last year’s 70,000 tonnes said Phou Puy, president of the Federation of Rice Millers Associations and the Baitong Rice Export Company.
Working capital would increase from US$28 million to $50 million this year as fragrant unmilled rice cost $450 per tonne, an increase from $400 per tonne he said'. 

Well, at least somebody is expecting prices to rise ....

Phnom Penh Post, 11 June 2012 names another two challenges:

 'Milled-rice exporters have called on the government to continue its efforts in reducing electricity and transportation costs, two of the main obstacles facing the government’s goal of exporting 1 million tonnes of milled rice by 2015'.

Government needs to work on this .... 

The article also mentions: 

'Although the government said the country would more than double its rice exports to 400,000 tonnes this year, experts have expressed misgivings about the figure as exports to Europe, Cambodia’s primary buyer, declined at the beginning of the year'.

The Alliance of Rice Producers and Exporters of Cambodia (ARPEC) has been formed (PPP, May 28 2012), a step in the right direction. However government involvement seems major, whereas an association should be independent especially as it needs to pressurize the government to make trade internationally more competitive ...

Other Thai issues
ASEAN integration means non-Thai entities are starting up business in Thailand and taking a slice of the Thai rice pie. The article in the Nation (june 15, 2012) is a bit odd, in that it fails to mention why this could be a problem, other than undercutting Thai government / Thai business interests:

'Although rice farming and trading are limited to Thais under the Foreign Business Act, many foreigners can easily rent or own land for raising rice and conducting a rice-trading business in the Kingdom," a rice trader said yesterday. At a Commerce Ministry seminar on creating a strategy linking local and global businesses, Thai rice exporters urged the government to protect Thai rice-cultivating areas and the trading business from alien residents by urgently checking the ownership of rice plantations and the certificates for running a trading business.
...
Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said some Thai rice exporters are now not Thai, while some foreign rice exporters want to join the association as members. She said Asean integration was a two-edged sword for the Thai rice industry, as it has encouraged Thai exporters to expand to other Asean nations, while foreign traders can easily penetrate the market here'.

Export news

• One hundred thousand tonnes destined for Indonesia (PPP, 28 June 2012).
• Phnom Penh Port will buy polishing equipment (PPP, 8 June 2012). 
• A rice mill for Takeo province, owned and operated by Canadia Bank (PPP, May 31, 2012).  A by line to a possible export deal with Guinea (PPP, May 2012):

  'An agreement for agricultural co-operation between Cambodia and Guinea was never followed through on, but the visit was hoped to expedite the co-operation. “[Our] two countries signed an agreement in 2008 for co-operation, especially on agricultural cooperation.
  But Guinea has not implemented it. This visit will encourage even more firm and active cooperation [firmer and more active than nothing?] on agricultural issues. It will be win-win for both countries,” Eang Sophallet said'.

The China trade
The Phnom Penh Post on June 7 notes:

'A 144-tonne shipment of Cambodian fragrant rice will leave Phnom Penh for Fuzhou, China on Saturday, the first Chinese order for the Kingdom’s milled rice after a recent government agreement was reached on Chinese regulation.
...
Reported regulatory issues have held back Cambodian rice shipments to China for more than a year, experts have said, some of whom maintained that the problem was Chinese red tape, not rice quality.
Rice millers have collected a stack of memoranda of understanding but the pseudo-agreements failed to translate into real trade.
...
Golden Rice president Sok Hach said his company sent a 48-tonne test run earlier in the year but failed to pass regulatory tests in the southern Chinese port of Shenzhen'.

On the same subject, PPP reported on June 1 2012:

'The Post reported last week that China approved local rice miller Golden Rice to export milled rice to China. A trial run the company sent to China earlier this year was refused by the Chinese government upon arrival in the southern port of Shenzhen.
Chan Tong Yves, secretary of state at the Ministry of Agriculture, said the ministry also has a quality testing laboratory, but it does not comply with the standards for exporting milled rice' [!]. 

On a final note, Cambodia needs Chinese cash for the rice trade: PPP (May 30, 2012):

'Cambodian government officials and private sector leaders have met with Chinese officials to negotiate a US$200 million loan for the development of Cambodia’s rice sector, an official said on Tuesday'.